Member Info for Solarfire

We usually get a production and corporate update in January. This from the GKP Financial page:

"The Company also provides regular operational and corporate updates each year, typically in January, June and December."

So, maybe news within the next 2 weeks.

Brent jumps almost 3 dollars to 86 dollars this evening.
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-set-to-close-higher-in-2022-a-turbulent-year-marked-by-tight-supplies-2971232

Hopefully a double (or possible triple) payment next week. The same thing happened last January 4th. Our CEO cannot be happy.

Yes looking for growth and chunky dividends.

We should expect the next Operational update next week. It goes without saying that the update will provide the direction of the share price moving forward.

As a minimum I expect to learn more about the progress towards FDP approval, current drilling update and production outlook.

Dividend policy might be provided.

We usually get a corporate and production update in the middle of December. But that seems a long wait under the circumstances of the drilling of SH 16 (hopefully started by now), work-overs and FDP.

Here's to the next 100 million barrels in double quick time...
The next payment should drop shortly and will a strong OP outlook, all looks good.
I agree with an earlier post however, that the production increase is now expected, otherwise it'll be a big disappointment for all concerned.

*not up to speed with the cladding issues, sorry.

If my memory serves me correctly, back in 2007/8 Taylor Woodrow had a very difficult set of operational issues.

High-rised apartment mega projects and a very large general construction and civil engineering business that had financial stresses within each of their UK regions. Then of course there was a strained period of dropping general construction and amalgamating house building businesses; Bryant Homes, Wimpey and others (to be re-branded Taylor Wimpey). Plus of course the recession.

Fortunately, today, the company is a well run business focusing on unitized house building. Their pension provisions are much more improved and they are paying regular dividends and have a substantial land bank. Historic cladding issues should have reduced, but I am to up to speed fully with that.

This latest crisis will cause problems, but the operations will continue in line with the supply and demand, imo.

Very shortly we should get an RNS confirming the dollar conversion rate for the latest Dividend that went XDIV yesterday.

PUTUP: "Where to from here? We need better production. Dividends distribute value. We need production to create it."

That's the plan though, isn't it.

There's no point in dwelling over the past slippages. After all, most of the past slippages were a direct result of non-payment and GKP did the right thing in not committing against the fragile cash balances.

If the KRG don't comment upon and subsequently approve the FDP, for whatever reason, then we will simply have to remain focused on addressing the short term issues. Certainly our CEO is making all the right noises and adjusting his Capex requirements in readiness.... and committing some in advance for oil field equipment. Therefore he should be pleasing the shareholders for his diligence.

Let's see what progress can be made. Meanwhile, we keep pumping.

I meant to add that dividends maye subject to tax depending on your circumstances.

Here's some rough numbers:

End February 2022 share price 200p Oil Price 109p
Dividends paid to shareholders since end February 80p
Current share price 224p. Oil Price 90p

Variable of whether dividends reinvested or divested.

Payments now regularised, no debt. Better management for shareholders, imo.
Short term growth plan.

Looks good to me. However, risks remain the same.

For a company like GKP, who started life as a minnow explorer, 2022 has been quite a remarkable year. Debt free and outstanding dividend contributions. The OP surely did boost our fortunes, but equally I see only a strong OP for the foreseeable future. But it's a great position for the Company and its shareholders.

The FDP has dragged, there's no denying that, but today's confirmation of continuation of dialogue and a resubmission, all points to an approval possibly in the coming months ahead. The KRG must know that the time is now right to get this approved.

Work in the field is ongoing and the management seem focused. It is still a risky investment for GKP shareholders (politics) so our eyes need to remain open to possible setbacks. However, it is clear that the company are prepared for any downside potential by retaining a strong liquidity.

Personally I am not expecting the same level of dividends next year, but the bigger rewards will come eventually when the production increases as a direct result of a new drilling campaign starting next year. Thereafter a gap up in SP will allow for some personal de-risking.

GLA, especially the long term holders.

Hi Op, X Dividend date is Thursday, so you can buy tomorrow and qualify for the dividend.

Maybe we'll see a rise tomorrow, with the above in mind.

Swissquote paid yesterday morning, but took a week for the previous dividend.

Make no mistake, Barzani is no push-over.

We can only hope of a positive output. GLA

Ccc, i think the French article clearly has it wrong. If contracts were "canceled" then GENL would have announced it, but they haven't. In actual fact they haven't said anything. The question is, why haven't they said anything?

Re the takeover speculation. My own thoughts...

I cannot see GKP being in a position to develop the field. It will take a big effort with huge resources.
Therefore I strongly expect that GKP will be swallowed up by a major. The current world macros would strongly hint that the FDP is likely being seriously scrutinised for development.

GKP have played a huge part for Kurdistan and despite all the politics, historic lack of payments, ISIS war, etc, it would make total sense that GKP will be taken over. It's not going to be for a song either. Just consider oil production for a generation to come.

Also I cannot see the logic of GKP paying off debt just to finance a new one. They just need to manage their cash.

CCC, further to your post:
Rudaw: https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/060720222 (6th July)

"Although the cabinet was able to provide the full salary for the first six months of 2022 where the average monthly salary expenditure is 900 billion dinars, the federal government for the first six months should have sent 1.2 trillion dinars but it has only sent 400 billion dinars in two months this year," it stated.

So, once again the Federal Government is freshly attempting to squeeze Kurdistan.

and...

"ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) said Wednesday that it will fend off pressure from the Iraqi government and protect its constitutional rights amid the jeopardized status of the Kurdistan Region's oil and gas sector.
"The council of ministers reaffirmed that it will not give up the constitutional rights of the people of the Kurdistan Region and defend the constitutional rights in every way and will not submit to any pressure and threats from the federal government,” read a KRG statement following a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Masrour Barzani.

During the meeting, the need to resolve "outstanding issues" between Erbil and Baghdad, especially oil and gas disputes, were also discussed. The KRG added that such issues can be resolved "through the enactment of a federal oil and gas law based on the constitution."

It's quite interesting that only GKP, as operator, has so far passed any comment relating to this latest political impasse. (refer to RNS dated 24th June). Nothing that I can find from Genel, Western Zagreb, DNO or HKN.

The need for oil revenues is stronger than ever and, with the current high oil price, the authorities need to continue to take advantage. I can only see this saga running on, just as it always has done in the last 10 or so years. Meanwhile, imo, GKP should preserve Capex and pay off the debt, just as other companies are doing right now.

I am sure that our CEO is being kept informed of developments and he and his team are more that capable of making important decisions on behalf of shareholders, for example reducing Capex expenditure if payments dry up. Will we reach a point whereby Kurdistan agree with the Federal Government on new contract terms? I really don't know. At the moment I think that Kurdistan are steadfast and that it is more likely that biscuits will be served with a view to reaching a political compromise.

Certainly the market isn't taking a view either way, as far as I can see. We are just following roughly the ups and down of Brent.

All resolutions passed, albeit the Chairman is under the microscope again.

Expect buybacks to commence very soon, imo.