The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Part 2
They might not be able to justify, to their shareholders, spending huge sums of money on CBR at this stage, in case it turns out to be more complicated then anticipated.
But, they can justify, spending money on Hemogenyx’s CAR-T in clinical trial.
And, I am sure that in those negotiations about CAR-T, an interest for CBR will also be expressed, at least with the hope that a good bond has been developed, and that it can lead to other business opportunities, further down the line.
So, if Mr. Sandler and team have prepared an easy to read contract with fair terms and conditions, that ensures it’s possible for each partner to make good money on CAR-T, then I do not think that there will be any prolonged negotiations.
I expect that the contract regarding CAR-T, will in that case, be signed shortly after we have become a clinical company and before it has been announced if we have received a grant for CBR. As long, as there as a minimum, is hope that collaboration on one or more aspects of CBR can take place.
I am sure that there must be at least one company out there that looks at it from that perspective, and going by Mr. Sandlers F… message the other day, I am partial to believe that companies are queuing up to get a piece of the CBR cake.
Question is, are they willing to pay for CAR-T as an admission to the party.
I think they are.
Where will your Sunday musings take you in regard to the progress of Hemogenyx?
Part 1
On a Sunday, where there is no news or trading, I often find myself musings about my shares.
Last Sunday (8-1-2023) I was trying to orchestra a little tune with all the right notes AND in the right order, in my little head. Namely in what event, should the various news arrive to maximize the upward trajectory of the share price.
An update on CBR the following day, was not contemplated.
The thought pattern was more akin to the following order:
1. Update on the 3rd run.
2. IND.
3. Clinical Trials commence.
At this stage, having upgraded from a pre-clinical stage to a Clinical company, I was expecting a significant uplift in the share price to 10-15 Pence a share, if the market was to treat us equally to our peers (however, there is never a guarantee of that happening)
And we would now be known outside the small circle here on LSE.
Then it would be time to bring out the big canons.
4. Update on CBR.
5. Hopefully receiving a grant for CBR.
6. Announcement of a collaboration on our CAR-T with a major pharmaceutical company.
7. Dripping announcement, of various collaborations / licensing deals, with various major pharmaceutical companies or governments in regard to various viruses.
(This was at a time, when I expected that CBR would have to be specifically engineered to every virus family out there.)
Sunday the 8-1-2023, in my little head, I could not see, why we should not be able to emulate Synairgen in their heyday when they had a clinical trial going, and reach a market cap in the region of 500 million pounds, just on being in Clinical trials with CAR-T and having ongoing collaborations with CBR.
That would amount to a share price in the 50 Pence region.
Now, that would have been a true multi bagging of the share price.
But that is not how, events have unfolded.
Everything changed the following day, Monday the 9-1-2023.
We, got the most fantastic RNS about CBR.
Single CBR Can Treat Multiple Viruses
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HEMO/single-cbr-can-treat-multiple-viruses-btbliw44cz9mry8.html
However, the share price has not multi bagged as a result.
Yes, it has gone up, but not by the multiples that is the RNS worthy.
However, I think the announcement of the RNS has been a stroke of pure genius.
Instead of risking to have to haggle about the price and terms and conditions for CAR-T, I think Mr. Sandler and team are now in a position to pick and choose among a plethora of suiters.
Every major pharmaceutical company in the right state of mind, want at least the option to get in on the CBR platform, should it prove to be as successful as we all hope it will be.
That is my conclusion on how the market has reacted to the RNS released Monday the 9-1-2023.
To me, it’s hard to beat that RNS.
So full of hope.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HEMO/single-cbr-can-treat-multiple-viruses-btbliw44cz9mry8.html
What a revelation it was, just the headline itself.
"Single CBR can treat multiple viruses"
And here follows, just a selection of highly worthy statements in the RNS:
“ The Company's scientists have identified a target protein that can be incorporated into a single multipurpose CBR-based therapeutic capable of treating multiple viruses that belong to different viral families, instead of having to make a separate CBR construct for every virus.”
“Among them are Dengue, Ebola, Marburg, Zika and Chikungunya.”
“it developed an approach that can be used to bring cell therapy approaches to another unmet need, the treatment of major existing and emerging viral infections, including SARS-CoV-2”
“demonstrates the possibility of accelerating the development of antiviral therapeutics as well as preventing epidemics and pandemics that could be caused by a multitude of pathogens.”
“Hemogenyx Pharmaceuticals has found a way to activate these macrophages to kill virus infected cells and protect against the virus by programming them with a set of novel CBRs.”
“Additionally, we have developed another simpler technology, Bait-Macrophage Engagers ("BMEs"), that act like antibodies and scavenge virus particles in the blood and neutralize them.”
“To overcome both the lag in response time and major shortcomings of antibody-based treatments including vaccines we are developing "off-the-shelf" (non-patient-specific) CBR- and BME-based products that may be directed against any viral pathogen rapidly after its discovery.”
“It is important to emphasise that, although our work to date has been focused on certain viruses, in particular SARS-CoV-2, as well as on particular types of cancer, it is in principle applicable to almost any form of virus.”
“CBR is a ground-breaking new approach to treat existing and emerging viral infections as well as potentially becoming an effective new form of cancer treatment.”
I’ll make no secret of this, in my view the RNS on Monday the 9-1-2023, was a worthy multi bagger and I can only explain the fact, that it has not multi bagged, with a claim that the market has not realised what we got on our hands here.
The conference in San Francisco is now most likely over, and it was an absolute stroke of genius to release Monday’s RNS on the opening day of the conference.
Hemogenyx could now talk freely about CBR and it’s expected capabilities.
I think that there must be at least 1 company out there, that is willing to pay a fair price on fair terms for CAR-T, in the hope a friendly relationship build on that foundation will likely lead to a profitable collaboration on CBR as well.
Who wouldn’t want to be able to say: If you suffer from ……, we got a HEMOVIRU
From the RNS:
"Additionally, we have developed another simpler technology, Bait-Macrophage Engagers ("BMEs"), that act like antibodies and scavenge virus particles in the blood and neutralize them. The Company's technology utilizes synthetic biology and artificial intelligence ("AI") approaches to advance medicine to protect society from future pandemics that may challenge the global economy, health, and national defense."
I have missed the news about the BME in the past. I am still gobsmacked by this to me new information.
On a different note.
Just imagine the market size when HEMO target AIDS.
If CBR is effective against HIV
WOW
What a RNS.
Off the shelf product that works against many of the most deadly viruses we do not yet have a cure for.
Well until now.
Now we just need clinical trials and production.
Question, had anyone heard about Bait-Macrophage Engagers ("BMEs") before?
Or is that a totally new thing now got well?
So many things in this RNS nd so little time before work calls.
What else did you find of awesome information in today's RNS?
After yesterday's excellent news, for the price to stay this low there has to be more sells then buys.
In my view the market has not realised the potential here or just have no appetite because:
It's Christmas
It's Biotechnology and it's out of favour
The financial turmoil
Etc etc
I wonder if there will even be the turnaround we hope for before or even when IND is announced, the way the market is acting irrationally, both in regard to this share but not least to the time we are going through.
I'd admit it would be nice to see a significant re-rate soon, but at these prices and with yesterday's news, well isn't it just a perfect buying opportunity.
All that is required is patience.
Maybe a lot of it.
Because there will not be a re-rate until the market gets an appetite and who knows WHEN that WILL happen.
(we all have a pretty good idea about when it SHOULD happen in normal times)
But are these times normal enough?
Last night on BBC news, there was a part about Great Ormond Hospital and how they had given a drug to a 13 year old girl when all other treatments available had failed her.
She is now 3 months cancer free.
That is great for her, that is great for medicine and other patients with blood cancers. And it could be good for us too.
I have not had the time look into the matter and do not know if it is related to CAR-T in any way, but if it is... I think it will be good for us as well.
And I have no idea, if Great Ormond is in Phase 1 or if it purely experimental and was only allowed because everything else had failed.
But in either case, it might make it easier to recruit patients for our Phase 1 trials.
It's simples, no Patients, no Phase 1 trials.
Long live science.
And there might be a 13 year old girl we will have to thank for a lot in the near future.
I, for one is happy that the seller, who ever it might be, is selling now.
Even if it is lowering the shareprice.
Hopefully the seller will be running out of shares soon.
And even more hopefully, we won't get any positive update from Hemogenyx before the seller is out of shares to offload.
To me, it would be so much worse that there is either an individual or a group of people who has to sell a certain amount of shares within a given timeframe, and we are getting positive news in that period of time.
I admit that for the shareprice to rise, some of us will have to be willing to part with some of the shares we hold to a new buyer, who is willing to buy at a higher price.
But if the current seller or group of sellers are in legal trouble and that is the reason they are selling, then it is in my view much better that the sell takes place now, before the news that should propel the shareprice north of here, arrives.
My hope on a postcard.
That Shaun Day announces we are keeping our Tasmanian assets and are buying NQ Minerals out of receivership from
Begbies Traynor Group plc in London.
The advantage to this move would be that we would get a producing asset from the get go and there seems to be railway tracks in the recenably near facility to both Firetower and Warrentina that could connect to the Hellyer mine.
https://live.staticflickr.com/8545/8632344155_8396a5a58a_z.jpg
So, what do I base this hope on?
The finance option of Havieron and Shaun Day's long stay in London last time he was here.
The banks he mentioned as household names, does not sound like they have their headquarters here in London.
And that is why I hope that Shaun Day on his last visit here in London was having meetings with Begbies Traynor Group plc about buying NQ Minerals out of receivership and are here now to finalise the deal.
Here's to hoping.
@Sharesforlife
There is a limit to what you can place in in front of Mr. Sandlers door.
In my view, the share price is not one of them, at least not in these days. (Let's forget about the past with the CLN's, it's an old story and water under the bridge)
Mr. Sandler and team has been hard at work, moving to new premises, working on our candidates and now at a conference.
Hopefully some of those people who have given him the impression that it's a blast, will start buying shares in the next couple of weeks.
But they will have to do their due diligence first, and then it might complicate matters a bit that we are trading in London and not New York.
Maybe we will first see movement when we get a earth shattering RNS.
Maybe we won't even get get movement then.
The way the market is treating this share, an been for long time, I wouldn't even be surprised anymore.
But here's to hoping .
It's gone past 7 O'clock.
I had hoped for an RNS this morning with an abundance of news.
News that could then be shared at the conference.
I assume that we, through the stock exchange, will have to be the first to be informed about significant news, before it can be shared at the conference.
Does this mean that there is no news to be shared since last time?
No, it does not. There has been progress, just look at the RNS's.
Bu so far, it does seem like we are going to get the earth shattering news we are so longing for, at this conference.
But then again, it's still in the middle of the might in New York and we might see an RNS later on today.
If there are worthy news to be shared.
If HEMO are not yet there with worthy news, then we'll just have to remain patient.
Here's to hoping for an earth shattering RNS today.
It would be such a fantastic opportunity if possible.
From today's RNS:
"Stuart's appointment takes the Company forward toward its first clinical clinical trials"
I expect that that will first happen sometime in the future, but this is just another cog in the wheel of this fantastic machine Hemogenyx is creating.
Onwards and upwards
Yesterdays RNS about a patent protection in China was great news in my view.
But it did not create an abundance of interest in Hemogenyx.
How can that be?
This morning I checked the today’s RNS section here on LSE and by 0800, there was 14 pages.
I do not know how many pages it amounted to yesterday, but for arguments sake, lets say it was also 14 pages by 0800 and it might have increased further as the day went by.
It is easy for a RNS from Hemogenyx to drown in that sea of RNS’s.
Based on this and previous released positive RNS’s, I allow myself to draw the conclusion that positive RNS’s are not enough to make Hemogenyx stand out from the rest of the flock.
In other words, what will it take for the share price to skyrocket?
Will it really be enough that we go from being pre-clinical to clinical?
Who are going to buy in at that point and why.
Why are they not already doing so now at these low prices?
I again allow myself to draw a conclusion.
I think it will take some positive results or a deal with a major before we will see any significant re-rate in the share price.
The best explanation that I can come up with, the one that makes the most sense to me, it that there is simply not enough appetite in the market for company with a risk profile like the one Hemogenyx got at the moment.
If that happens to be the case, then the question is what will change first?
Investors risk appetite?
Positive clinical results from Hemogenyx and partners?
A deal with a major?
Dr Vladislav Sandler, CEO & Co-Founder of Hemogenyx Pharmaceuticals, commented:
"The grant of the patent right on the territory of China is significant for the Company because it protects the Company's IP in one of the largest global markets and further affirms the Company's leading position in the field of the development of groundbreaking therapies for the treatment of blood cancers and BM/HSC transplantation conditioning."
Great to get the protection in China, that market is what usually worries me the most.
Hemogenyx already got the patent in the USA so I expect Europe to be nothing more then a formality.
This is one more well oiled cog added to the the machine.
Onwards and upwards, when the market realises the potential here.
I would say all of it, but that is not how to play this game, it would be bending the rules a bit to much.
What really keeps me up at night is CBR.
If this stuff works, on many a bacteria and virus, it will be such a seismic change in medicine.
It would be nothing short of EPIC.
@ JerrySpaniel, thanks for your pretty sure confirmation that the loan agreement might be related to the Juri JV.
I do not mind a JV in Juri,
But I do mind the giving up 70% for peanuts from the outset and not a single penny going into GGP’s coffer to help the company stay afloat while we are not cash generative.
In my view it is not the right way to treat a business partner.
I am fine with the concept of: I’ll scratch your back if you scratch my back.
By that concept, I mean: 10% of Juri for providing a loan facility at 8% when no one else was willing to lend us any money and then the possibility for Newcrest to earn in further percentages in the future and a right of first refusal.
I am not going to diss GH and the BOD for the deals they made as I fear that not even SD could have gotten a better deal under the circumstances.
I say that because, I really fear that we were bullied by Newcrest into accepting conditions that should be unheard of in a JV.
I agree with your assessment of all the times that Newcrest could potentially have twisted our arm and made demands that was highly unfavorable to us.
And that is why, if that is the case, I do not think we should enter into any more JV’s with Newcrest.
Because if that is the way they treat a business partner, you really got to be a masochist to ask for more of the same treatment.
It is all assumption and guess work how and why the different deals got struck, but for me the proof is in the pudding, namely the way Newcrest goes out of the way to argue for a low-ball offer for the 5% option.
They could and should in my view have come up with the number SD and team came up with, in fact it should have been even higher.
If that had been the case, I would have been in doubt about my recent expressed assumptions, but as it stands, I am not.
You’re right it is better to look forward to a time with SD at the helm and the prospect that he can replicate the trajectory for GGP, that he created as part of a team at Northern Star.
And he has clearly expressed how important a catalyst Havieron is, to get the ball rolling in that direction.
Like you, I have also been to the hustings at America Square, and I too am impressed by SD, but if Newcrest keep playing the way I fear they have been up till this point then I am afraid we are still gonna face unwanted behavior in the future.
We are already lined up for 2 JV’s where I fear we can see more of this behavior. I do really not think we should willingly line ourselves up a third time.
No, let’s have a professional courteous relationship at Havieron and Juri, but let’s try to go alone on the rest of our other tenements or find another company to JV with.
Having said that, if @Taverham is correct in his 07:13 post about Australian business culture then it could very well be worth to stick to the devil you know.
But I am not a fan of the idea.
Part 2.
But if my assumptions in the last 2 posts are more correct then wrong, then based on the experience dealing with Newcrest up to now, I do not like the Idea of JV'ing another single ounce of gold to them from our other tenements.
I know SD has mentioned the possibility to renegotiate the percentage deal on Havieron and Juri if we strike gold at Scallywag and does a JV with Newcrest on this tenement as well, but I feel I have been to to burnt by them with the report that Newcrest produced to justify their offer for the 5% at Havieron.
I would want to see amends from Newcrest, before reconsidering my stance.
The best amend I can think of, is declining the 5% option, because that is an absolute fortune in future income it will be handing to GGP.
So the question that remains is: Can a leopard change it's spots?
Part 1.
I do not have any intention of slamming GH with the post that I wrote earlier.
I am sure that he and the BOD did the best that they could during the negotiations of the Juri deal.
I am just sad that if my assumptions are more correct then wrong about demands from Newcrest, that our JV partner have used their position of power to get one over us at GGP.
And no, do not come and tell me that is how it has to be in business, because it is not.
Years and years ago, I had the pleasure of working for a guy who had started a company from scratch and done all the hard manual work himself. Many decades later, and with several hundred employees and operations in several countries and the son's and various professionals having taken over the day to day running of the business, the opinion was still that the company had only done a good deal if both parties was happy with the deal.
I think, that is a good motto to live by while doing business.
But as the saying goes: "A Leopard cannot change it's spots" and that is why I after Newcrest's attempt to justify a lowball offer for 5% extra at Havieron with a first class well writen report are more scared of them then ever before.
SD have a point when he say's it a bad idea to have a win loose scenario written into a contract.
From my point of view, I can see why originally a cut of deal has been accepted or proposed, assuming it has had something to do with not risking that the funds a 5% sale of Havieron would raise, could be kicked into the long grass.
To be fair to Newcrest, they have without a doubt spent a lot of money at Havieron so far.
But those expenses are on exploration and justification to go mining.
I do not remmeber that they have actually paid as much as a dime to GGP.
TO BE, OR NOT TO BE. THAT IS THE QUESTION.
Buying or not buying the 5% option, that Newcrest have a contractual right too, is a perfect chance for Newcrest to show that they appreciate that GGP choose them as a JV partner, by offering a decent sum for the 5%. The first sum of money from Newcrest and directly down into the coffer of GGP. Or by deciding not to take up their contractual right they can show the same respect.
In my view it is unlikely that they will not take up the option. And they have truly shown their spots with the report that they used to argument for their lowball offer.
I am therefor fearful that Newcrest will also in the future try to behave in an undesirable way towards GGP, given they get the chance to do so.
But I do think that it will be more difficult in the future with SD on board and our knowledge of how Newcrest operates.
Personally it is my opinion that we have 2 JV's with Newcrest and we should leave it at that.
I am glad that SD and SB get on well and equally so the geological teams.
And please keep that going for our 2 current JV's.
A lot of what is to follow will be with the caveat: " if memory serves me right"
I have never understood the motivation for entering into the Juri deal and I do not feel that we have been given a proper explanation as to why such a poor deal was accepted.
After having experienced Newcrest produce a report, a couple of hundred pages long and from what I have heard very well versed and with solid arguments for what they wanted to pay for 5% extra of Havieron, should they decide to take up that option, I am scared of that company.
Having heard that the GGP team managed to 5 double the sum, I have to assume that the offer from Newcrest for 5% of Havieron was in the region of 12 million. This is an assumption as I have no knowledge of what Newcrest offered. But this assumption makes me even more scared of Newcrest.
So, I cannot help but wonder if Newcrest twisted GGP's arm when they made the loan facility and demanded a chunk of Scallywag, but instead ended up settling with a gigantic piece of Juri instead. GH seemed so pleased when he announced that we kept all of Scallywag.
If that is the case, then we are in a situation where our JV partner acts like a bully in my view.
I hope I am wrong, but I fear I am not.
From where I stand, GGP got nothing out of the Juri deal. Nothing worth to talk about, from what I gather in the RNS's released at that time.
Newcrest paid us nothing.
Yes, they have to spend money on exploration, but had it been their own piece of land, then that would also have been the case, so why did GGP not get some money for letting Newcrest in on the action in Juri?
A mutually good deal between JV partners on another tenement and project (Havieron) could among other options have looked like this:
Newcrest would have gained 10% of Juri for 2 million paid directly to GGP with no demands attached other then keeping the license going. And then Newcrest would have the right to buy further instalments at various higher prices up to a maximum of 30-40% of Juri. Should GGP decide to sell their share of Juri, Newcrest would have a right of first refusal.
If it had been announced that Newcrest had agreed to give a loan to GGP at 8% to finance their share of Havieron and in return the deal above had been agreed, then I would have been more then happy and found it to be a symbiotic relationship between 2 JV partners.
But it was not that kind of a deal that was made with Juri.
I am therefor still to this day disappointed that we did not retain it 100%, because in less then 2 years we are likely to be cash generative, and then we could have spend all the money we wanted to throw at it.
How can Newcrest improve my impression of them as a company?
Not take up the 5% option at Havieron.
And simply state that they do not do so, because they value the JV with GGP and despite it is ENTIRELY in their right to excersize the option, they find it unfair to do so, because Havieron is expected to become so big.
From today's RNS.
The Company's state-of-the-art research facility includes approximately 10,000 rentable square feet of purpose-built lab space including two clean rooms for cell therapy manufacturing. In addition to continuing and expanding its research, Hemogenyx Pharmaceuticals is now able to manufacture cells in-house, accelerating and simplifying the commercialisation of its major cell therapy product candidates. The Company will first use its clean rooms to produce its HEMO-CAR-T cell therapy for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia.
This is just the first piece of good news that I expect to receive over the next 6 months or so.