Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
OK , so you have halved my range and made it 450,001 to 499,999 bbls with you winning for all other outcomes? Normally I would tell you to go sling your hook but as it's for charity and it reminds me of a previous bet that I won I'll go for it.
I'm not in to football but about 20 years ago when I worked offshore a Rangers fan in the T shack kept telling everyone that Rangers were going to hump Aberdeen. I told him to behave a few times but it escalated to him repeating that Rangers would beat Aberdeen then he said "I'll bet we will beat Aberdeen, it'll be 2:1" making sure I had witnesses. I took the bet. His face dropped when it was explained to him what he had better on. Unfortunately for Aberdeen and him it was 3:1 but I won the bet.
Apologies for going AD!
I love a bet but in this occasion I'm with BD as 450,000 is my minimum. Happy to take a 'stab in the dark' bet to the nearest 10,000 bbls with you if your up for it? I'll go for 510,000.
Exactly my point AD.
After they have completed the various data gathering including shut ins for PBU data (not sure how long that takes) the guidance is 20,000 bbls (10,000 per well) with 85% uptime giving 17,000 bbls per day.
But this includes all annual maintenance, unplanned maintenance & 1 day for pigging every 6 weeks. As they have just started up you can exclude the annual maintenance (est. 14 day per year?) Takes you to 96% uptime less pigging 93.6%. This is the quoted previous AM uptime of 95% with a bit of the obligatory HUR 'fat'
Company guidance is based on the intention to flow each well at 10,000 bbls based on the PI and results of modelling to avoid the reservoir being drawn down to quickly, individual well experiencing rapid decline and water breakthrough.
The capacity of the AM un it's current configuration s actually 35,000 total fluids and 30,000bbls oil.
It is not inconceivable that, subject to GOR (which again from the ES is based on absolute worst case scenario) and out with PBU or other data gathering excercise, the AM could be producing 30,000bblsd. I.e. tanker every 17 days assuming no unplanned outages and no pigging over the period.
In summary, for short term production it is better to look at actual tanker offtakes rather than the conservative company guidance for an idea of production rates.
JK, I'll take a £10 bet for charity on that one if you ste up for it?
So if it's not between 450,000 and 550,000 bbls I will donate £10 to whoever takes the bet and if it is then they should donate £10 to BMR. If no volume is quoted then all bets are off.
Estimating production over the long term based on HUR guidance (typically conservative) is sensible but is is subject to numerous assumptions.
It is my view that the initial offtake will be between 450,000 and 550,000 bbls as that is the normal parcel size. We know there is a tanker on it's way and having looked at the forecast I see no reason for them to have called the shuttle tanker in early to avoid 'tank tops'.
I have no inside information but assuming the offtake volume is quoted in the RNS (there has to be an RNS issues as since it's the first time the company has generated revenue) I will happily place a £10 bet for charity.
Any takers?
My charity is Braemar Mountain Rescue.
HUR will issue an RNS as they are the operator of the 3 2019 wells. Spirit are paying for them though.
My thoughts exactly!
Thanks to WessexMario & Wulbert for the link. I've recall this presentation when i first watched it but watching it a few years down the line really highlights the success of this project. Everything RT and AS stated has come to fruition. It's a must listen for every investor. I know AS has come in for some unjustified criticism from some shareholders over the last few years considering the capital market climate when they got the EPS project initiated
https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/58e4d292ad2a006c3094befe/58e4eb5e253d08b958000035
You cannot determine 'well pressure rates' whatever that means from the % opening. Production choke % is not directly proportional to flow. Pressure both downhole (already known from well test) and topsides is measured by gauges with the choke used to control flow/drawdown
Thanks for the summary. I couldn't make the AGM so have been reading various boards and it's the first time I have heard any additional info on WD progress.
"Warwick Deep - gauges are in, hope to demonstrate oil flow soon. No further info at this time." Confirms they are at 'the business end of the drill. As indicated earlier I expect Chris Cox is heading out to the TL to be with RT for the well testing. Announcing a x.x million barrel discovery would make good PR and a great photo opportunity as well as validating the Spirit Energy decision to farm in. I'm hopeful of news in the near future
Can I ask what info you can glean from knowing the type of production choke valve and it's % opening?
Apologies I should have put a smiley in the end :)
My comment was adding to Moonlandings last sentence about expecting news soon.
We know they are 'at the business end of the Warwick Deep well' and Chris Cox will be joining Trice on the TL soon.
It would be a perfect photo opportunity.
No video but transcript is the 1410kb document
https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/investors/general-meetings
...complete with a photo of the 2 CEO's with the flare in the background
There was a stuffed toy monkey in the TV lounge on a platform I worked on 25 years ago. Poor guy made the journey from the yard in Hartlepool to the field on the end of the crane hook.
It should be highlighted that the flow period is 72hr consecutive from both wells so a process trip or any interruption in flow from either well will reset the clock back to zero.
Can you direct me to a quote where he said that or did you just make it up?
Yep, sounds like they are dewatering the pipeline. Can't be too long now.
P.s. SOTB there will be a number of folks who have lost folks offshore including myself and your comment puts you firmly in the '********' category!
Apologies in advance for being pedantic but 'mm' stands for million!
The schematic on P12 of the Q2 presentation has "Final testing (e.g. valves, off take hose etc.)" as part of the commissioning phase I.e. before the introduction of hydrocarbons