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Jimmy & B4n, it is also likely the driver to divide the renewables and hydrogen from the fossil fuel divisions of Char so as to be attractive to 'green' funders. Though the renewables have a nice 0.5GW pipeline, they are still a minnow. The scope in Morocco longer term to build grid-scale generation makes fostering a good working relationship with the government a wise investment. The next decade should be very interesting for Char.
This was for $600 million paid for 7.7GW existing solar and wind and another 2.5GW in the pipeline. Char has 0.015GW in Burkino Faso and 0.5GW in the pipeline. On a pro-rata basis Char's would be worth just over $1 million. Early days.
Assuming $10/mscf, the gsa on which Char has agreed the principles appears to be worth $2.2 billion over 10 years. Slide 9 of the presentation suggests about 2/3 of that will be net cash flow: c. $1.5 billion. https://www.chariotenergygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022.12.12-Chariot-Webcast-png.pdf. The Indicative Life of Field Economics also suggests 105mmscfd. During the presentation, Duncan indicated that planned exploration would raise this to 150mmscfd for 15 years.
To me, the presentation all sounded like good news: broadly on track to deliver first gas in Q1 2025; gsa principles agreed to underpin finance; FEED nearly complete; FID H1 2023.
https://stream.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/6365336893b0033e50b97699/6396ff936c213109f72c1e84
Julian said the plan was to distribute the income from Anchois to shareholders.
Duncan mentioned 85-90% profit from Anchois, 3.5% royalty and 31% tax after 10 years. He also mentioned a plan to increase production from Anchois with additional drilling to 150mmscf for 15 years.
Therein lies the investment opportunity, KB. The market hasn't yet fully acknowledged what Char is racing towards: 40 mmscf per day from Q1 2025 ramping up to 70 mmscf and then 100 mmscf by 2027. Partnership with Total on Project Nour and our roll-out of PVs in South Africa and, most recently, Zim is given no value by the market. Podcast on Monday should be interesting. Us LTHs now have much to look forward to without and vacuous, 'transformational' rhetoric from Larry.
The MOU for the 40mmcfd gas sale included a partnership option for the field development project. It would be a lovely early Christmas present to have the GSA and capex resolved.
Good description (with number) of Anchois in the spglobal article.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/ci/research-analysis/moroccos-anchois-discovery.html
I can't imagine them volunteering a webcast unless they've got something to tell us. Could it be GSA, FEED costs or a farm-in? They can't issue an RNS until the ink is dry, but is something due to be signed on Friday? It's tantalizing.
" The setting of agreed bankable terms for the GSA by December 22, 2022 and the full GSA by February 23, 2023"
Not long to wait now. There seems a real sense of urgency from the Moroccon goverenment. The GSA will allow us to put some real numbers into the calculations. Just in time for a very happy Christmas.