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We must be getting very close to FID and farm-out news and yet we've heard nothing credible about likely farminees nor GSA terms nor capex, just speculation (albeit well-informed). I'm starting to think Char is being run properly or am I being naive?
Jimmy, Are you assuming capex of $560 million?
Are you assuming the CPF runs at maximum capacity 365 days a year from the get-go?
Do you think farminees will want a share of the risk and reward of further wells?
Your 34p valuation seems very conservative. I think I will hold on until Char starts paying dividends from whatever share of Anchois and wider Lixus licence they keep hold of.
Good find doodle8
Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): One step closer to FID – Production ramp-up quicker than expected
• Chariot has completed the Front-End Engineering and Design (FEED) on the key components of the Anchois gas development project.
• The FEED confirms a plateau production of 105 mmcf/d from three wells including the existing Anchois-2 well, subsea infrastructure to an onshore central processing facility and an onshore gas pipeline to the Maghreb Europe Gas Pipeline (tie-in agreement already signed). This is in line with previous indications.
• We are currently assuming that production will initially be ~70 mmcf/d for up to two years. This is likely to be too conservative as production could reach >100 mmcf/d in just a few months.
• There is also upside to the production plateau given that (1) the wells could deliver much higher production and (2) the pipeline to shore could take ~150 mmcf/d. The European market through the Maghreb Europe Gas Pipeline could also absorb a much higher level of production. The onshore facility that is being sized to handle 105 mmcf/d would be the main bottleneck but it is modular in design and its capacity could be increased quickly.
• The onshore and offshore baseline surveys have been conducted. They are part of the Environmental, Social and Impact Assessment. The Field Development Plan is being finalized. The future development drilling at Anchois will also target 754 bcf of additional gross 2U prospective resources with 49-61% chance of success.
• Chariot continues to be a value story with very near-term catalysts. We re-iterate our target price of £0.55 per share.
Imminent key next steps
Chariot anticipates taking FID on Anchois in 1H23. The company is currently in detailed discussions with potential farm in partners and we understand that the process is competitive. Detailed discussions are also taking place with regards to gas contracts with ONHYM (60 mmcf/d) and European buyers (~40 mmcf/d).
Value and newsflow
Finalising gas sales agreements (and announcing the prices at which the gas would be sold), announcing an industry partner, securing debt funding and taking FID at the project remain the key near-term catalysts and would take our Core NAV to ~£0.65 per share. Taking FID on the South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe power projects would add respectively £0.02/sh, £0.06/sh and £0.01-0.15 per share with each further MW adding 0.1p/sh.
AP wrote: ".....detailed discussions on partnering, gas sales agreements and project finance continue concurrently...."
So the plan is to partner after all. Or is that just the existing partnership with ONHYM?
It would appear that urgently facilitating a domestic gas producer such as Char will have political support at the highest level because Moroccans simply cannot afford the hike in gas prices that we are having to endure.
Let's have it Adonis.
We will be a month closer to FID than we were at the end of January.
I understand people’s impatience but, compared with the years of build up to get us to this point, FID is just the blink of an eye away. Enjoy the anticipation whilst it continues.
Link to RNS detailing CPR dated 20/07/2022 showing chances of success and resources:
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/chariot_ltd/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=351&newsid=1607592
Beware of misleading misinformation. DYOR
Jimmy, I was pulling your leg, if that was not clear.
I'm surprised the rise has been achieved on such small volume. I wonder if a large buy is being worked in the background.
Can't help but think this afternoon's rise is linked to the American market opening at 2.30.
It's not like you Jimmy to provide commentary on individual share purchases. You're not another avatar of our resident mustelo furo are you?
Glad to see new money arriving from the roadshow. I think anyone getting in below 20p will do well in the coming year.
Hi Jimmy,
Oort, whilst an industry start-up, have an impressive management team with decades of experience in research , design and implementation of electrolysis. They seem a good match with Char and, if their Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) electrolysis is as good as early trials suggest, this could be the next big thing for long-term energy storage. I just hope they and Char manage to grow rapidly together. I suspect either or both are at risk of being taken over by a multi-national.
https://oortenergy.com/about-us#team
The Oort partnership RNS was dated 4th November. Either Oort has existing data to support Char's numbers or Char's original estimate was pants. It would be nice to know the timescale of the Oort partnership study so we can get real scalable efficiency estimates.
Goon, thanks. It won't happen again.
Disappointed with SP? Yes. Worried? No.
AP has 87 million tickets. He knows more than anybody the state of play and yet he's sold none. It's times like these we need a word of wisdom from Supreme dalek to calm LTH's nerves.
AP has bought 87,465,324 shares with his own money. The information on LSE shows 64 million bought since 2010 at a cost of £4.5 million at an average of about 7p. He has paid as much as 115.3p per share (ouch) but the bulk of his holding (41 million) was bought at 5.5p. He knows Chariot better than any contributor here and has invested heavily. To me, that speaks volumes. I'm happy to hang on to his coat tails for the forseeable.