Don't focus so much on the CDT price - Cizzle is not a proxy for Conduit9 Oct 2023 18:44
A lot of people seem to be setting their sentiment for Cizzle based on the rise (or, at present, fall) of Conduit, as though Cizzle were simply a proxy for Conduit. It's like Cizzle is nothing more than a cash shell, and our value is solely set by how well our holding in Conduit performs.
Nothing could be further from the truth. The fortunes for Cizzle are set by how well the CIZ1B biomarker performs as a readily available early diagnostic test for lung cancer. We're looking for progress on entry into Chinese and US markets, obtaining UKCA mark and NHS approval, etc.
But let's pause to look at how much a rise or fall in the price of Conduit should affect the Cizzle share price.
We hold 395,460 shares in Conduit.
We have 363,841,773 shares in issue.
That's to say, each Cizzle share holds the equivalent of 0.00109 Conduit shares.
Conduit IPOd at $10 per share. So at that price for Conduit, each Cizzle share gets $0.0109 (£0.00892) of its value from its Conduit holding. Since listing, CDT shares have dropped to $2.60. So each Cizzle shares has lost the equivalent of $0.0085, or £0.006938. 0.7p.
So that's a decent chunk. But these calculations highlight two things
1. It's a fraction of the Cizzle share price. So most of Cizzle's share price is nothing to do with the fortunes of Conduit
2. The enterprise value being ascribed to the Cizzle test under development is tiny.
If that test succeeds, the boost that will give to the share price will dwarf what our Conduit holding will be worth, however much that goes up in value.