Member Info for SlowLearner

Good morning KievRetailer, So I lost the bet ... it wasn't gold taps on the jet ... it was Mike hadn't got enough foreign money ... either way a very smooth drop in the share price. Also, its looking like he isn't going to bother with a trading update ... why would he as he probably had a good Christmas (didn't issue a profit warning update like 2016 or like Next et al this year) and he cant have the share price going up can he?! Going back through the share buy-back RNS, I make it that they have only bought 25m of the 89m they got authority for at the AGM in September (they had 44m in treasury at that point). Hence at 500-600k shares a day he's got 5 or 6 months to go. One RNS stated they had up till 6th September 2017 AGM for the buy back however he's got prelims on 20th July so will be hard to fudge that. Hence have we got 4 months of 280-300 bumps .... more exciting updates (like the DC had a power cut and store deliveries have been delayed) before Mike lets the brakes off and we return to a sensible share price ?

There was no Interim update last year as they were forced into an earlier trading statement / profit warning in early January 2016 because of poor trading over Christmas 2015. The lack of a profit warning this year (unlike Next et al) implies that trading was better (we should get an update next week) however it doesn't explain their reluctance to continue the share buy back above £3. Next week should be interesting .. my bet (with due respect to Eugenie Bouchard) is that we have good trading but profit challenges due to the cost of fitting gold taps in Mike's private jet's bathroom (as a desperate attempt to keep the sp down)

The improving market (as you say rig count up again) and NTQ's streamlined cost base are continuing to get quietly noticed ... bid up to 22p today .. slowly slowly we are getting there

The buy back seems to be continuing at any sp below £3. Any chance we could be in a closed period in the run up to the trading update? ... in the last closed period Citi were implementing the buy back under price limits but with no direct input from SPD allowed until the end of the closed period. Hence they could be doing that again with a £3 ceiling. However last time there was an RNS saying that was the plan as they entered the closed period. Either way the whole thing is crazy as the true value of the business is way above £3 IMO if only it wasn't being managed

KievRetailer - darn shame they didn't keep going ... assuming they don't think £3/share is the real business value there's nothing to stop them keep buying except Boothen's valid point that they are desperately cooking up something for the trading update to get the share price down to allow them to hoover up more cheap shares. Shall we have a sweepstake: (a) over budget on gold taps for the new jet (or b) recently implemented US$ hedge is now undermining their USA store expansion programme (assuming they get them) (or c) FCUK is FCUK'ed ..... they cant say trading was dire as they would have had to issue that early Jan like Next this year or SPD last year. Call me cynical but I agree with KievRetailer that the sp isn't going to rise significantly until MA wants it to and he has too much share buyback (& therefore % growth in his own holding) to go first ... but when he does let it go (based on annual profits) there is no reason why we don't get back to and beyond the market cap of 2014/15 .... peaked at 922p on more shares in issue .... anyone for £10/share?!?!? (nb £4 in 2013 took 15 months to become £9)

KievRetailer - well done for banking profits ... its been a bumpy ride the last few weeks (eg yesterday's sudden drop). Will be interesting to see if the share buy back continues above £3 ... the 5th January resumption RNS stated the maximum total number of shares and £value that implied an average price of £3 but it doesn't stop them buying above £3 (either to hit an average of £3 or to buy less than the maximum number of shares). There is still a long way to go on the buy back so they could well keep buying with the price edging up a penny a two a day if they cant convince an II to sell a bigger chunk of shares. Interesting few days ahead

Qd22- not me guv ... £400k in a few minutes is a bit rich for me!! If it wasn't Rivaldo then it must have been Korg using his pertinent rig count analysis. With 4% of the company's shares changing hands (100x typical daily volume) then we may get an rns tomorrow or early next week telling us who/which threshold they have crossed. Either way we should get more interest with this big step up and crossing the 20p barrier ...for any new visitors to the board ... in summary: IMO still a long way for the sp to go to reflect the cash pile, discount to asset value, streamlined cost base and growth opportunities (Korg's oil price and rig count point)

Is our patience finally being rewarded - rivaldo and qd22 .... enjoy the lth tag

Hi Qd22, good to hear from you. Are you still holding your stake from last summer? I understand the nervousness of adding more. I bought 40% of my NTQ shares in 2014 so those are underwater but having weathered the 2015 storm then I will (im)patiently wait for the market and enjoy the steady growth (although there are richer and riskier pickings elsewhere ... gold price since the US election seems to have been as unpredictable as the result itself!!)

I am surprised NTQ still hasn't been picked up by the wider market ... share price continuing to tick upwards (look at its 12 month plot) reflecting the cash pile, discount to asset value and the downsized/well managed cost base. As you say Korg, oil price & rig counts going up should accelerate this sp growth. Shame the company is not that active on news updates / RNS (next results not due to April) although it does allow a buying opportunity as funds become available

Bid-Ask of 17.5-19.5 and a buy in at 19.4 .... has the market cap discount to assets been spotted at last?

Indeed Rivaldo ... another set of solid results showing management have got the cost base in order and can withstand the ding they have had on USA revenue expectations again this year. Impressive cash generation in the toughest market for years ... and further evidence that the market cap shouldn't be discounted versus net assets. Hopefully this share is now getting noticed ... people buying at 18.49 is a good sign of further rises to come

Kievretailer and Beetham - I agree, 278p is great value and based on MA's form right back to float year in 2007, he has often used share buy backs at low prices to increase shareholder value (inc his as the majority shareholder). I am a big holder of the shares despite the negative PR .... MA is a canny retailer and operator. Two slightly odd points on the share buy-back that would be good to get everyone's views on: 1. It's going very slowly (only 3m shares of 30m bought after month and a half) ...is he trying to keep the price down (or) flush out an ii seller and 2. The share buy back commencement announcement on 9Sep mentioned the buy back up to 21st Oct closed period ... Have they gone over this because interims will be delayed (10Dec in 2015) or did the FX profit warning constitute all we will get in 2016?

Good points Rivaldo + Allianz have spotted the value and quietly picked up 7.5%. Shame this hasn't hit most people's radar screen yet but at least it gives an opportunity to increase my holding whilst it is slowly ticking up

Still moving up but low volumes ... buy at 17 and sell at 16.6

A buy in at 16.95 ... let's hope it's through the 16.49 barrier ... so little stock out there and still no RNS update on Wednesday's1% buy (although labelled as an uncrossing trade - hard to believe at 20x daily volume). Hopefully NTQ is finally getting noticed and its cash position and strong management will be reflected in the share price

Up again today despite low volume ... its hard to work out what is happening in the background ... its still hard to get shares but yesterday's 325k shares seems to have been unwound later in the day so may not have been a real trade. We've had 3 days now of good sp gains on the back of solid sp progress since results in June (and with at least 1 big 600k buy) - you would have thought that would have got the share noticed by the wider market ...

Qd22 - have you seen another 0.5% of the company changing hands has been reported this morning at 15p (yesterday's 1% was defined as an uncrossing trade but a tad odd at 20 times the normal daily volume) ... I am trying to buy more but there are virtually no shares available ... potentially we have a major buyer in at 15p

Ironically I got my nickname from doing the same as you multiple times - ie spotting an undervalued share ... buying some .. then buying more/doubling up when the sp dropped ... then doubling up again when sp dropped even further!!!! I did it 3 or 4 times without learning (on FCCN, OVG, RIA and NTQ!!) On most occasions I sat and held and got a tidy return when the market eventually recognised the value in the company. For example I have sat on OVG since 2013 and the market has only spotted in the last few weeks that the assets were 5x the market cap (its almost trebled since). Hopefully the wider market will spot NTQ although IMO I think we will only go 2-3x from here!

Qd22, I think the steady rise since Mid June is a response to the results - showing that the business has been successfully right-sized (even a small increase in cash) for the current market (the CEO was quoted as saying"the business is secure"). Although there are small operational loses, the cash balance is $15m, ie significantly exceeding the market cap hence potentially investors are recognising value. The interesting news today is a large purchase of c1% of the company - has this undervalued asset been spotted by a purchaser or a new institutional investor?