RE: Try to keep it civil5 May 2021 20:58
jj,
"I am not an engineer and find it difficult to model existing well decay (declining production) but compensated by new well drilling and what the initial production would be from the new wells.
I take the Company's IRR projections, graph from their capital markets day, and bond financing. which demonstrates at different oil prices the IRRs on various CAPEX programs (i.e. new well drilling).
I have the Company projected to back to 75-85,000 boepd by 2023 (dropping to 55k by H2 2021) but it is very difficult to gauge."
Agree that it's difficult to model natural decline without the specific information (some even live data) from Tullow themselves. These would be things such as reservoir pressure, watercut, GOR etc.
No, 75-85k is very optimistic for 2023.
Now the figures posted by Tullow for new drills (initial production) is gross for both Jubilee and TEN.
For Tullow, 2022 will look more like 61-62k bopd, potentially rising to 64-65k depending on well performance.
2023 onwards, you'll have Jubilee invested in with production from new wells contributing without much decline. However, TEN will just be getting up to speed following drills in 2022.
I have estimates for 2023 at c. 66k bopd. But again, depending on well performance, could potentially rise to maybe 70k bopd.
Anything above those figures will require two rigs simultaneously drilling to accelerate reserves into production. Even if Tullow decide on using a 2nd rig, there will be a delay before the production is seen. Peak production will likely occur in 2025 should Tullow decide to drill with 2 rigs and could potentially rise to 75k bopd.
Anything above would require production from other assets (e.g. Kenya/Guyana).
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