Member Info for Slift

Hi cluelesstim,

I don't think Tullow will have enough funds to pay off the 22 senior note from the $1b proceeds (but obviously this depends on oil price). Tullow's portfolio of assets comes with huge CAPEX investments on a yearly basis. There is no way Tullow can continue as they have for this year with cost savings everywhere in the business until 2022.

It's more likely that Tullow will repay a portion of the RBL in 2021 to increase liquidity (or to maintain liquidity) going forwards. I still believe that the maturity of the senior note needs to be extended.

ALL IMO.

Hi Sage,

Regarding non-participating interest and non-cash royalties, you're probably right. I haven't bothered looking into it. Take what you want from it, add to revenue if you'd like. But i'm going to keep it as inventory (and assume the rollover inventory from 2019 is accounted for and already turned to cash).

Regarding OPEX:
$17/barrel at 18k bopd covers lancaster OPEX.
$26/barrel at 18k bopd covers OPEX (lancaster EPS and general company op costs) + Conv Bond + G&A (including non cash share based payments, insurance etc.)

"The CBS coupon and G&A costs will come to less than $25M."
I disagree with this. It's like to be more than $30m.

DYOR.

"What are the chances of the CEO putting a 'going forward' statement setting out Tullows path for the short to mid-term?"
I mean... he's been in the job for 1 month.

But I expect this forward statement by at least the Interim Results next month. The interim results gives clarity to everyone, so would be wise to make promises at this point IMO.

Hi Longish,

If you wany another site that gives you these holdings.. it's simply wall street.
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-tlw/tullow-oil-shares#ownership

However, you might find that the list contradicts other lists and that whilst it says that it's up to date... it's in fact not.
It's very hard to keep track of holders. The list varies no matter what site you use for this information, and it's almost always out of date. The only way you can confirm this list is to go to each fund and confirm the list with their monthly update of asset holdings.

What we can keep track of is major shareholders (3%+), as it is a requirement by the FCA for major holders to submit a TR1 notification of major shareholding.

The most recent list of 3%+ shareholders is given in the circular.

Esp. PlantedBHA.

I wonder how much of an impact trading update will make and how much of it is priced in already.

It really wouldn't surprise me if they mention that they've farmed down their Guyana (and/or) Suriname licenses in the update.
Likely pressure (or rises) on share price following big oil updates next week too.

Possibly even further cost savings from deferred CAPEX and OPEX activities.

I agree Davstock,
The fact that it's been delayed from May raises a lot of questions. Whilst it's probably not bad news (as there are many explanations including covid19), it's still something to be concerned about at this stage, until clarifications from the company.

Agreed, not something to be worried about at this stage.
It would be a normal procedure to have inspections before handover.

Current major risks to TLW for Q2/Q3/H1:
- Increase to borrowings and net debt/cash in bank
- Impairments of assets
- Production (non-operated portfolio, delay of Ntomme9 well)

From the recent news flows, everything else seems to be positive.

Hi HeresHopin,

Just for clarification, I didn't quite buy at the low of circa 7.5p. But the majority of my holding prior to when I sold was from when I bought between 10-12p. I did miss out on the rise from 26p to 40p, however I I don't really fear missing out.

Regarding the confidence.. I also agree with your statement!
Whilst I've done research provided it here, there's only so much us private investors can do. We will never know the current and ongoing background activities which is always the biggest risk to investing.
No-one can predict the future or the current performance by the company unless you've got the figures in front of you (and that would be classed as insider trading). What we do have though is guidance provided by the company to guide us to make predictions and estimates. I always account for some contingencies in my calculations and predictions and I am always conservative with the predictions and estimates.

There's always risk to investing, so you will always need luck to do well.

Slift.

Hi BareNeccessities,

Yes, i've got a holding, and will be adding over this week and next. Possibly after Trading update too, after payday haha.

Hoping for a good trading update, but can never know what Tullow can throw at you!

Steve777,
Think lottery would work better for you if you want to make returns overnight.

No reason to bail out of this company. Still quite a lot to look forward to:
- Trading update 29th
- Credit facility re-ratings
- Farm down of exploration assets
- Farm down of Kenya
- Forward strategy from CEO
- Explorations (Suriname and Guyana)
- and more, but surely you're capable of doing your own research.

https://www.sharecast.com/news/aim-bulletin/global-petroleum-updates-resource-estimate-at-offshore-namibia-block--7580112.html

Pretty close to Tullow's license PEL0037.

"come out with RNS that silences Hurricane’s doubters."

"Shiela" can easily do this with purchase of shares and providing a director shareholding update to bring confidence to this company.
To date, she has 0 shares.

capdailbrit,

It's not as simple as that.
I don't think Tullow should be compared to Noble.

Noble's reserves of 2050 mmboe are proven reserves (1P).
In comparison, Tullow's 2P reserves are 243 mmboe. 1P reserves are probably around 180 mmboe (at a guess).

Hi Akhtar234,

Yup, I have bought some here. But looking to increase my holding over this week and next.

Oil has been sub 50$/barrel for almost 5 months now. There are only a few companies that are still making a positive cashflows to cover operations and CAPEX. Not profitable for anyone and definitely not sustainable.

Petrol prices has risen again, which is another great sign.

Good luck to everyone here!

Well put Mathematics.

I think a lot of people here need to face these facts.
I'm a bit more pessimistic regarding the cashflow for this year.
Until oil price recovers significantly to at least $55/barrel, cashflow for 2021 is an issue.

However, as HUR is still generating positive cashflow for this year (assuming production is constant) - at the current market cap, this company is undervalued.
Regarding debt, it's still manageable imo. Obviously a problem, but there's room for negotiation in extending the maturity, or even generating enough cashflow in 2021-2022. Not to be worried about at the moment.

I'm glad that there are no rampers or derampers here anymore.
The fact that Tullow is no longer in focus of daytraders aswell as manipulators is a great sign.

Look forward to the trading update.

Every little helps!
I don't think Petra could have done anything with that exploration mine anyway.

Lol, didn't expect a sale of Botswana exploration assets!

But good news that there's some interest.

Some of my posts have been deleted.
Lol, oh wells.