Member Info for SlickMongoose

For goodness sake, it's a £5bn company. Nobody is ramping or deramping, and even if they were, who cares?

Sorry, AGM was Wednesday.

The AGM was on Thursday. No real trading update but the noises from management are all positive.

We're only trading at just over 20x earnings, with the most solid balance sheet in the world and a decent dividend. We all know the recent growth can't continue, but even with a more modest outlook this company still looks like a great deal.

I think as Brexit gets closer and the negotiations get more fraught we're going to see more volatility in UK housebuilders. When a single speech (without any real new content) can more shares and currency significantly, you know the markets are nervous.

Nearly bought in after the last profit warning. Glad I didn't. One to avoid I think.

Wkworld, we've all bought shares just before a drop, it just happens sometimes. As long as nothing has gone wrong with the company then just ignore it, assuming you've bought for the long term.

Frankly paying attention to daily movements is not a sensible thing to do (although it's difficult to resist).

Worrying about 1-week performance is absurd.

Unfortunately, I think we have to accept that the short sellers have done well here. They spotted a business that was reducing its prices to compete with online retailers, with an inevitable drop in profits, and made money from it. I don't think it's any more complicated than that.

However I do think they're getting greedy. This is a very crowded trade, and as long as management guidance that PETS will return to profit growth is accurate, the share price is only going back up. This is a solid, cash generative business with growing market share, debt that's well under control and falling, and an attractive, well covered dividend.

So if I was shorting, i'd be getting out now.

If PETS does return to profit growth, and the shorts don't close their positions quickly, management could make life very difficult for them with buybacks. While it wouldn't be popular with all investors, i'd be very happy with them cancelling the dividend and putting their spare cashflow into a large scale buyback program at these prices. There would be an epic short squeeze.

I seriously doubt that IFRS 16 is impacting here at all. The decline is due to poor retail sentiment & political uncertainty regarding the UK economy, combined with our falling margins over the last couple of years. Nothing we don't already know.

If we show some good numbers when we publish, it'll start turning around.

So two bits of great news today then.

Noble shareholder vote next week will be important, we could really do with the uncertainty being resolved.

https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2018/08/ted-baker-dividend-growth-stock.html/

If I recall correctly, the last placing was to fund the Colter drill and the Jamaica seismics.

So will they need another placing soon for the rest of the licenses?

MARS looks cheap but just be careful with the debt levels......

House prices rise the fastest in West Midlands

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45196524

Interesting to see what that announcement from the US does to REE basket prices over the next year.

I'm not 100% convinced it's great news, trade wars tend to be bad for business in general.

Key points for me are:

1. Cheap valuation at current resourse estimates:

Mkango is trading at c40% discount to the 13p valuation of its share of Songwe Hill and the downstream Maginito venture ascribed by the initial Talaxis deal (in our view a minimum valuation benchmark), and considerably below our NPV-based valuation (20p on a risk-adjusted attributable basis today, rising to 100p at production). Moreover,
the group’s Thambani niobium-uranium-tantalum project offers a ‘free play’ on further value-unlocking potential.

2. There is significant potential upside, over and above current estimates:

Management anticipates that the BFS drilling now underway could upgrade a material amount of currently in pit-shell inferred resources to measured and indicated status (enabling them to be included in a future updated reserve calculation).

Inferred category resources comprise 55% of the currently delineated resource, with a significant amount lying within the conceptual open-pit that was modelled to calculate the maiden reserve. Assuming closer-spaced drilling successfully upgrades much of these inferred resources to indicated category, and that those indicated resources subsequently make the cut as reserves, we believe it is highly likely that there will be a material reduction on the 4.5:1 strip ratio that was assumed in the PFS, which in turn is likely to impact positively on operating costs. If planned step-out resource drilling (mineralisation is untested to the northeast and southwest beyond the limits of the present drilling, but is considered open) is similarly successful, we believe that the life of mine could be extended beyond the 18 years envisaged in the PFS, and/or annual production rates increased.

Potential areas of upside versus the PFS include optimising the flotation flowsheet (management believes optimising the flotation regime could see recoveries increase to over 80%, versus the 67% assumed in the PFS) and the possibility of a pre-treatment ahead of leaching (roasting or caustic conversion) and selective processing of synchysite versus apatite (which carries the less economically important HREE) to improve overall leach recovery of the key ‘magnet’ LREE (most importantly Nd and Pr) and lower acid consumption.

I think the problem is that while the revenue growth looks great, until we see some actual profit figures the market will be sceptical (due to historic falling margins).

Even if the assays simply confirm the previous resource estimate, the shares are clearly undervalued. Any resource upgrades would be fantastic.

Most of the profit increase is from gain on investments. I find the cash flow more useful than the income statement, with interest received from investments up 3.8%.

They're being cautious on the dividend, as the current spike in wholesale energy prices is not expected to last.

Why do they pay out so little in dividends (or buybacks)? They're generating £1.6m profit and turning all of it into cash. So why are they allowing the cash to just build up on the balance sheet? Of the £11m market cap nearly £4m of it is just cash.