Member Info for Skippysb01

Seeing some very big trades going through on the chart. Not showing up on the LSE tracker. Bit odd. We are talking 3 x ~80m trades. It's odd because they are not making any difference to the share price. Anyone else seeing this. I looked at the google chart.

I see 74m, 84m, 83m

Couple of bigger trades just gone through? a 20m and a 10m. They look like buys though the spread is very tight so it's hard to tell.

So people talking about the sp not getting back to yay or nay level etc. You and probably anyone who has any level of experience at all will want to look at the market cap because that is the actual best indicator of value. If there is a discovery then the market cap will be multiples above what it is now.

We can all divide one number by another, right? So you can work out what the sp would be with the current number of shares in issue. Dilution has been terrible but it doesnt make a damn bit of difference to the basic math.

Your 5% chance of .7p needs explaining because you don't need much of a sniff to get the market cap over 20m from here.

It's high risk stuff no doubt and not for the faint hearted. Invest what you can afford to lose etc.

LW. I think if you were going to write a thesis on the 'psychology' of investing based on this message board over the last 6 months that you deserve a chapter to yourself. Posting multiple times a day and yet not having a vested interest in the outcome requires explanation beyond just finding it interesting and because you can if you want to.

I suppose if you were writing a thesis on it that at least would be some explanation! I hate to think you are just barking mad.

I know, I know, I need a chapter too, I'm all emotional etc.

Whilst it would be no surprise for LB to step down as CEO after this drill I wonder if the quote below was actual said? I did not get that impression from the interview.

John Henry. HE1 found increasing density of Helium the further down they drilled and ultimately the highest concentrations are believed to be deeper, hence casing the well for further drilling later.

Finding higher concentrations the further you drill is the very definition of trapped gas. It's not about whether or not any can escape it's about the concentration within the geology. 'trapped' doesn't mean what you think it does.

So they did find free gas but were unable to send a sample of that to the lab. However the helium trapped in water exsolved out of the water when it was no longer under pressure. At that point it is free gas. This was sent too the lab.

Not much has been made of this on this board. One of the reasons I bought more after the fund raise was because it could well be that Noble announce positive lab results/discovery whilst we are still drilling at Itumbula. Also, I believe what Noble found contributed to moving the HE1 well.

I should correct myself a bit about the Noble testing as it's not as clear as that but this is what was in the ASX announcement:

'Data collected from drilling the Mbelele-1 well indicates a 10-15 metre column of free gas within the upper part of the Mbelele structure, consisting of a mixture of helium and nitrogen. While as previously advised a sample of the gas could not be collected, this interval encountered the highest helium readings in mud-gas for the entire drilling program and the Company is now working with NSAI with a view to satisfying the requirements under the guidelines of the SPE-PRMS for declaration of a conventional helium discovery. The Company considers the free gas as potentially material to its early monetisation plans and intends to revisit this gas intersection as soon as possible with a small, low-cost rig for sampling and flow testing.

Gas-phase helium was further recovered at surface from fluid samples taken from deeper reservoirs beneath the free gas column within the Mbelele structure. As the fluid samples were brought to surface, they depressurised naturally and gas came out of solution (‘exsolved’) into free gas, which was then calculated to contain Nitrogen and 2-3% Helium (after correction for air contamination). This represents the minimum amount of helium contained within the fluid sample. Evidence indicates all of the reported reservoir intersections at Mbelele-1 and Mbelele-2 contain these helium-enriched fluids. Not only did each reservoir have helium shows in mudgas, in numerous cases exsolution bubbles with elevated helium were identified in the mud system while drilling, demonstrating high levels of gas saturation.'

Didnt Noble say they had found a column of free gas? Isnt that what they are testing.

'Free gas column of mixed helium and nitrogen at crest of Mbelele structure'

So not 'as Noble found' as Sinq suggests below.....

I don't get the idea that it's 'either or' on investing before or after results. My thinking is always smaller amounts when the risk is highest and no reason why you can't invest after if it goes well and can still see an investments case.

I won't after results or at least I doubt it. Any profits would go towards overpaying my mortgage or into investment trusts or dividend stocks but that's just me. I could leave some in.

Does anybody remember that Woody Allen film wthat has a Village Idiot Convention.

I'm wondering if there is a de ramper convention happening today? Might explain where they have all gone!

No volume either of the seller or the buyer side. Also no volume on the postings on here today with a number of notable absences....

Need news now but does seem like the placing related activity has stopped for now.

'ruth be told, it's like dealing with a bunch of heroin addicts'

Say the poster that isnt invested but just can't let it go....

Actually Turbot it was my turn yesterday too but in any case Ive given as good as I get.

It's very obvious that our DR has an interest in the outcome and it's not just a hobby....

LegalWolf. I don't think you actually read anything I wrote this morning. You certainly didnt interpret it very well.

That's a lot of word soup to say that it's not good for existing shareholders if they get a duster.

HE1 fundamental outcomes.....

In reality the end point for HE1 in Itumbula is a successfully completed drill. It is not a discovery! A discovery is a separate outcome and one which HE1 and all of us should realise is at very high risk. Discovery is not assumed and it is one thing that the BOD cannot guarantee.

The BOD should be held to account to complete the drill and verify if commercial helium is present. It can be a yes of no answer at that point and they will still have delivered on that outcome.

As an investor it's important to understand that the risk is very high. You have invested in the completion of the drilling and testing of the well. Nobody told you you would get a return on that. It really is that stark a choice. You get to review the data - the studies etc. You need that + luck. NOBODY knows what is underground with absolute certainty - NOBODY. There is no science that can guarantee this.

Hate on the BOD as much as you like - they may well not be competent at budgeting or planning - but ultimately there is a known unknown that is on YOU as an investor, not the BOD.

Cromwell - Dm was not able to secure a drill of any kind. He walked because he could not deliver the one fundamental requirement - you cannot discover if you cannot drill.

This company by hook or by crook has to drill. They are drilling. The cost and how it got to this point and whether or not they achieved it at good value are valuable discussion points but LB has got this back to the fundamental delivery outcome.

No JH. They will raise funds to move to the next prospect.

This 'They've treated shareholder funds with complete contempt' is just how it feels after the event. They cannot ever be certain the prospect will deliver commercially without drilling. It's the same for any exploratory drill. Never expect loyalty to shareholders in AIM - if the BOD was run by the nicest folk in the world they would still need to disappoint the shareholders if the drill was not successful.

JH - read my post again. I did not suggest that dilution is good for holders. I am pointing out that the messages suggesting that HE1 will end as a going concern if Itumbula is not a success are wrong. Many of these AIM companies survive for many years going through cycle after cycle of research, raising and drilling.

Not liking that is one thing but not understanding the risks before putting any mooney down is another.

It isnt true that the company will end if they don't find commercial helium at Itumbula. They have 3 months working capital after that. They will plan the next phase - whether that be more Rukwa or somewhere else - and then raise funds for that.

Everyone who follows AIM exploration companies knows that each funding round is a phase and the huge risk of investing in each phase v the potential huge reward. It's why most investors do not invest before discovery or in AIM at all.