Member Info for Skippysb01

Waitaminute - Lets try to understand what you are trying so hard to tell us. You suggest that people are leaving HE1. OK so let's try to quantify that....

What is the cash value of the difference between buys and sells so far today. Go on have a go at that.

Panic time?

I prefer transformation and globally significant resource.

Is Waitaminute seriously telling me that there is an accurate way to show what trades are buys and which are sells?

Bornaminute

So wait or not. Your choice. I really don't see any evidence of people selling and moving on. The SP looks very well supported at this level.

Joe - you say that if they had said it was a 'good flow' it would be better. However you can use other language to indicate that the well is productive. Why use these words in the RNS if it isnt a good flow:

'Flowing helium to surface in such high concentrations is a huge milestone for the Company and we will now fully evaluate these results and focus on advancing this project in the most effective way possible; one that will aim to achieve commerciality at the earliest opportunity.'

OK so we could say we don't believe that they have a commercial find because they haven't disclosed the flow rate - but they have stated they aim to achieve commerciality at the earliest opportunity. That's a very positive mention no? Commerciality of what?

Clearly a lot of us are not going to agree until we get more data.

Deltalo. I think you are probably right in terms of where we will end up with HE1. It is a huge find and hence the CEO using language like 'transformational' and 'global significance'. It must be frustrating for them too to not be able to articulate this clearly but ultimately you can't RNS and just say - its blummin masses of helium - because at the end of the day they will have to state facts about reserves and flow rates in a precise manner. It will come. Exciting times for the patient.

You could imagine that the helium can be continuously released from a fluid source just because it becomes depressurised. It doesnt mean that all of the helium is released when the fluid is at surface. This is really important. This is like opening a can of coke - there is an immediate release of gas but it doesnt all release. What HE1 may have found is the can of coke. Noble may have the already open can of coke. i.e. you need to do more to get more gas out of the flat coke.

What HE1 have tested and what Noble have tested may not be the same thing as the process of the gas exsolving from fluid will vary in quantity depending on the pressures the fluid is under under in different circumstances. Hence it's hard to model with certainty without a lot of data crunching.

Once the gas is released from solution it is free gas. Anything else is just semantics. The important bit is whether the amount of free gas is commercial and or can the gas in solution also be freed and become commercial. If the Itumbula system delivers a consistent flow of gas being released from depressurising solution then that alone could be commercial.

Point is that HE1 made it very clear that the gas was released from the fluid as it depressurises as it rises up the well bore.

I think we can all agree that we need to see flow/pressure/size of resource/whatever data.

I suggest people re watch the interview to understand why they haven't disclosed that level of uncertainty yet. You can decide if you trust the CEO or not.

The rather semantic stuff about what 'flowing freely' or not means won't matter when we get a better view of the data and what it means.

Joe. You have been telling us that the gas did not flow to surface. It did. During the interview this is very clear on several occasions. The uniqueness of the find is down to the geological anomaly for which there is not existing model so they need to create a new one.

As I posted earlier - I agree with you that we need to see the flow rate and pressure details. LB says they have that in the interview and then explains how it's not as straight forward as releasing that data. they need to interpret the data further first.

'opportunity for transformational growth over a period of time'

It was worth me watching the interview again. So posters are being very selective in how they interpret this (perhaps deliberately in some cases).

IMHO the potential is huge here. They have pressure and flow data but it needs interpretation because it is not a traditional helium play. Listen yourselves to understand that.

So the interview. 3:36 mins. 'seeing the helium coming out of solution and flowing to surface'.

Regardless of whether the helium is in the ground is in solution or not it is being released from the solution and 'flowing' to surface from the itumbula well - as helium gas..

FLOWING.

Joe does have a point on the flow. They did experience 'the flow' during testing and I want to know more about that. I'm very happy to wait for more data but they say they lined and sealed the well so whatever they experienced can ultimately be assessed and disclosed.

Spot on. Doesnt fit the standard model of a helium find. So need time to evaluate and create a model for that.

Also there are rarely opportunities for the CEO to buy shares due to insider trading rules. She certainly could not now IMHO.

Also, also. CEO share deals are a really poor way of assessing shareholder value. Just doesnt translate that companies where directors buy shares the sp goes up or that it reliably indicates future additional value. Often it's a sign of desperation in AIM.

Revised resource estimate alongside more details about flow testing including what they know about flow so far and/or if they need to do more from an appraisal perspective.

I took it from the most recent interview that the find is anomalous and needs additional interpretation. It isnt standard, with no hydrocarbons. An anomalous find like this can't be plugged into a standard model to reliably explain what they have found with certainty.

So we can either believe that it's taking longer to assess because that's what the CEO told us or we can believe they are withholding data from us for some other reason. Every time I am faced with this type of dilemma I find the former is always true.

Waiting is biggest threat to shareholders. i.e can you?

All IMO etc.

I think you may need to wait longer than a minute Waitaminute

I used to think these L2 posts must be about the market but turns out every time someone says L2 is looking good the SP falls.

Were you referring to the postcode have they built something nice in Kirby?

Don't you need a rig if you are going to perforate the well casing at different intervals?