Member Info for skier1

Does it ever stop raining in Manchester? Have visited 3 times this year, and it's always drizzling or pouring with rain as soon as you enter the city outskirts. Like a magic switch being flicked on and off.

Agreed on Biden. He's losing control of the world. Rogue states are popping up all over the planet, from Russia to Yemen, to exploit his frailty and worsening dementia.

Trump can be good for US stocks, returning global stability and US perceived dominance. But China stocks won't be happy when Trump turns up the heat and Western firms relocate even more to India.

..."Over the past two years, the cost of energy has surged by 49% while food prices have risen by 28% - far greater than the 14% in average earnings over this period."...

Over the past 2 years, the cost of energy has gone up (on average) by £1359 per year per household, while the cost of food has gone up (on average) by £2406 per year per household, while net earnings have gone up (on average) by £4396 per year per household, while gross earnings have gone up (on average) by £5292 per year per household, while savings interest and investment gains have gone up (on average) by £6,000 per year per household.

Outgoings have gone up a bit (£3,765)...

Incomings have gone up a lot (£10,396)...

That is how free-market economics works. And why Western capitalism always trumps communism in the end. Markets never stand still.

Sadly, most voters are thick as mince. Studies show most people vote the same as their parents, regardless of the facts. And most people just parrot what they read in their preferred newspaper. If the Mail or Guardian says the Tories are bad and the economy is bad, then voters will believe it's bad. Even when the stats say they are good. Humans are very susceptible to the power of suggestion (POS) and herdlike indoctrination...

Trump will be back in office by this time next year. Either in the White House or from Rikers Island. The first thing he's going to do is put the thumbscrews on China. Trump fully understands the threat posed by a genocidal unelected communist dictatorship that is urgently tripling its nuclear warheads, beefing up to invade the world's largest chipmaking country that powers almost every gadget and military on the planet, while headed up by man who openly calls himself the new Stalin. That kind of atmos is not good for the China stockmarket. Which in turn is not good for HFEL. Doubt any bounce here will be sustained.

And don't forget Japan... they really are in a mess. GDP slumped another huge -2% YoY in Q3 2023. Japan is now challenging Spain and Italy for the title of the poorest country in the industrialised world! Japan's decline this century is quite astonishing.

As predicted, UK inflation now plunging. The Covid effect is waning. Now down to 4.6%. Meanwhile, people's wages are strong at +8% growth. FTSE100 is trampolining +5% in a couple weeks. Sterling is strengthening once again vs. the mighty dollar. Folks are getting richer. Plus, no UK recession, GDP is up. Unlike the Eurozone, which this week is once again plunging toward recession. UK is in much (much) better shape than most realize or predicted.

Good UK GDP numbers. They topped expectations. It confirms (as predicted) there will be no UK recession this year. The worst of inflation and rate rises are now behind us. Given the ONS has such a bad data record, it wouldn't be a surprise to see these latest GDP numbers revised higher next year.

Analysts at Bank of America (BoA) say US bank stocks are now at an 80-year low vs. the S&P500. Oversold, and due at least a bear-market bounce, they say.

Good news for LLOY holders. When US banks rise, UK banks typically rise in sympathy.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bank-stocks-hit-historic-80-year-low-vs.-sp-500:-analyst-sees-bear-market-bounce-as-fed#:~:text=In%20a%20note%20published%20on,index%20in%20over%2080%20years.

CW01,

It is a great report from the IEA. Real, hard facts. No sign of emotions, bitterness or hysteria from the losing side. Brexit UK really is in good shape. Been posting it here for 3+ years. The message is finally getting thru 👍

The ONS is an utterly discredited institution. Its figures are always wildly wrong. Year after year. Look at recent GDP "corrections". The ONS can no longer be trusted.

..."*** and lying in the gutter and looking up at the stars after a bad pint at 'spoons"...

To be fair, that sounds like a pretty good night out.

All great points...

But that hasn't stopped the LLOY shareprice plunging a staggering -90% in the past 25 years, -85% in 15 years, -50% in 10 years, -30% in 5 years, and -15% this year alone...

Lol.

Are folks still pumping this up!

The shareprice has collapsed -98% and it still has a (crazy) £3m marcap for selling a few tubs of overpriced cream!

Ahm oot.

A market wobble here has become full-on panic!

The UK economy is obviously much bigger today, with many more firms than 14 years ago.

The UK company insolvency rate has plunged from 0.9% in 2009 to 0.5% in 2023.

It has halved.

As always, context is king.

As always, it's important not to get carried away with the prevailing culture here of self-inflicted misery and doom hysteria.

That's been discussed here for years. London analysts and media take bizarre glee in talking down British firms, talking down their prospects, and show weird delight when they get taken over by foreign companies on the cheap via their suppressed valuation. Britain's weird culture of self-loathing and misery has all but killed the London stockmarket.

The 2 wars are localised and won't spread elsewhere. Russia is never going to mess with a NATO country. Israel has nukes. Iran won't mess directly with them. China is not yet strong enough to take Taiwan. There won't be a 3rd war (for now).

Two things today are dragging down LLOY to 40p and have been for some time.

1. Banks remain out of fashion on Wall Street (due to low growth and no tech narrative).

2. UK bank windfall tax is an ongoing threat and the calls are getting louder.

Was just watching Jeremy Vine this morning on Ch5. Pretty much every talking head and caller on there was calling for a bank windfall tax and getting very shouty and angry about it. It's surely only a matter of time before the UK banks get walloped (again).

Makes for grim reading. They lost an entire decade on the failed battery business. A catastrophic event that is sinking the shareprice and has tainted the brand.

As predicted -- yet again -- HFEL plunging under the 200p level. The share is in freefall. All eyes now on the 180p low. China woes continue to drag the Asia region down.