Oak's Note9 Oct 2025 11:29
Pantheon Resources announced yesterday the successful completion of a 25-stage frac operation at the Dubhe-1 well. In our opinion, the successful result derisks the most challenging operational aspect of the well and sets the scene for the forthcoming production test. We expect investors will now focus attention on the forthcoming production test intended to definitively establish the commerciality of the Ahpun SMD-B resource (322 million barrels of 2C recoverable liquids resources; 123.7p of full unrisked value to be unlocked under a success-case based on Oak Securities’ NPV10 estimates).
Successful completion:
The company confirmed that it successfully completed 25 fracture stages of approximately 200 feet each over the length of the 5,200 foot lateral wellbore within the Ahpun SMD-B reservoir. We highlight that the Dubhe-1 completion operations are the first of their kind undertaken by Pantheon Resources under normal operating conditions (outside of COVID supply chain constraints); therefore, we believe that the success of all 25 of the frac stages should provide investors with confidence in the operational excellence of Pantheon Resources.
“Show Me the Money!”:
Looking forward, in our opinion, the downhole operations for the Dubhe-1 well are relatively straightforward: i) the plugs required to isolate pressure within the well during the frac operations will be drilled out, ii) production tubing will be set, iii) frac fluid and sand will be recovered from the well, and iv) oil and gas production will displace the frac fluid and establish an initial production rate for the well. For reference, typically the “IP30” rate, or the average production rate over the first 30 days of production from the time of maximum oil and gas production forwards, is considered by industry to be a key production metric. If the Dubhe-1 is the “Show Me” well for the Ahpun resource, the IP30 can be considered to be “the Money!” – “Show Me the Money!”