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Would be great to get an RNS that the clinical trial in COVID-19 patients in Brazil with nasally-administered Foralumab has started. Dr. KS said we could see results in Dec so they should be started/about to start. A positive result would be transformational
Bought a sizeable (for me) LT holding here last week after completing my research. Really like the BOD, current cash balance, and undervalued sp. interesting quarter with the demerger and Brazil trial too.
Yes the near to medium term drug pipeline here is very exciting and the market cap is only £80m!
$2.5m payment to DNL from Eton on first sale. Should see that this year easily. Nice
Monday we will be told:
Performance of LFD is very good and AS is pleased with it but no numbers - LSTM clinical performance trials in progress.
Tech transfer in progress with BBI & Abingdon.
BAMS being clinically validated/trialled with gov
LFT will follow same route.
LFT demand is astronomical
IND for AVA6000 in progress
Of course we know all this already but get impatient and for some reason expect the worst whilst being told it’s all progressing positively.
AS will spend at least half, if not more, of the presentation talking about the cancer therapies. He’ll probably detail how the fundraise cash is being put to use. It’s the Q&A I’m interested in as it can help clarify some points but don’t expect AS to pull a rabbit out of the hat.
I’m quietly positive and expect Avacta to go from strength to strength over the next 6 months with a steady rerate and consolidation along the way.
Buying more today at 77p. I expect the RNS on Alkindi FDA approval to come Tuesday morning as they usually send approval at the deadline. Looking forward to seeing what the sp will do as we are multiples off the broker sp targets and everything g is going to plan.
Will be interesting to see who/what gets a mention here considering the Avacta test will be game changing:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1308612184314961920
Avacta’s LFT has to be one of the 10+ tests being trialled in this study. Seems to be perfect timing. There just aren’t that many others out there ready this close to clinical validation. I think we’ll get an RNS confirming shortly...
Which part of the test would need that kind of tool? The injection moulded strip case? You’d have thought it was a standard design and that wouldn’t be changed. That said we don’t know how the test is used yet (transfer of saliva into the strip) so I’ll stay curious.
Do Avacta sell:
a) tens if not hundreds of millions of tests a month through gov contracts around the world for a small profit margin (~£1/test)
b) millions of tests to the public or private business through partnerships making a bigger profit margin (£10/test)
c) both of the above subject to ramp up in manufacturing capacity
I do feel like the strategy has changed. AS talked originally about £30/test and bulk £15/test with cost to produce the test £2-£3. However now I am certain Avacta is part of project moonshot, if not it is project moonshot itself, so the volume is there. I can’t see the gov paying huge margins when they are placing orders for hundreds of millions of tests. RK suggested lower pricing should be the strategy but I was sceptical given the confirmed interest at the time. Now we know what the UK gov wants to do (10m tests a day) and have seen the Abbott US order (150m tests).
Thoughts?
Just listening to BBC news talking about the leaked document. £100bn for testing roll out. 3 million tests a day. Experts warning the technology isn’t ready yet...we know that! Surely the best performing test (Avacta) wins a big share of that. 10% of it is bigger than most of us have dreamt. And that’s just the UK...
Yeas we’ve discussed Cytiva’s potential role here as a manufacturer not just developer before. You’d like to think that the internal tech transfer time is less than going to a third party. The prototype has been ready for a while now. Imagine if we’re all focussed on the UK approval/orders and Avacta/Cytiva drop something shortly in the US ready for FDA approval and an Abbott size ($750m) US gov order! It really does depend on what exactly Cytiva’s full role in this will be. It really depends on the commercial terms with Avacta and their confidence in Avacta to capture the market (with their support in the US)
Sona’s first batches all need to go to Canada too from what I understand under the terms of a grant they received. I’m sure they could work something out with the right manufacturing capacity but Avacta don’t have this constraint
But I thought the clinical validation results of Sona’s test were nothing to write home about? Will it get approved by the FDA on those results when the bar has been set much higher now? There FDA approval is well overdue from what I read. Avacta/Cytiva could easily jump them if what we think we know about the test is true...
Could the BAMS test provide some form of quantitative analysis, rather than just positive/negative, that allows the lifecycle stage of the virus to be determined during testing?
‘Affimer reagents that can work in pairs, both binding to the spike protein at the same time. This allows tests to be developed that detect both the intact virus particle and the detached spike proteins which become separated from the virus particle during the development of the COVID-19 disease, which may also be important in monitoring disease progression‘
Even just two stages could be useful. Would be interesting to know how the BAMS test is being developed for the market. Could it help address this issue:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54000629
I’m not aware of anyone doing this yet so seems like a USP in a part of the testing market dominated by PCR at present. Thoughts?
GreenKitty, you’re not really giving a balanced view though are you except for saying you want out and it isn’t going up unless an RNS comes out. If you’d researched just a little bit you’d be confident of an RNS coming out in the next few weeks. There’s lots of products being developed in parallel so could be regarding any. I am fairly confident the share price dropped from £2 due to the 120p placing last time. The sp tends to overshoot each way. You might be surprised and see the sp rise with no RNS over the next few weeks like it just did. It’s clear to me both the BAMS test and LFT are being validated by the UK gov even though some people struggle to see what’s right in front of them. They’ll be working under NDA and announcements will be coordinated once The tests are ready to launch. I see many posters gripped by fear as their investment starts to bear fruit rather than sitting back and relaxing as their original decision to invest is vindicated. Good luck on wherever you put your money next
AS has been highlighting the demand for the Avacta LFT over the last few months in various interviews. I like the one where he refers to it as being ‘astronomical’. And now Matt Han**** has call the mass testing operation ‘Moon Shot’. It’s clear AS knows what he’s doing, has the vision to succeed and is focused on delivering the results. We should see news on the LFT approval and gov order in the next 4 weeks at the latest. People buying now to take a position or increase their holding as news could drop any time between now and then
I really thought this would drift back down to 90p after the h2h update RNS rise. So far the sp has held up incredibly well. Looks like I’ll have to buy more at 125+ Next week minimum. I’m personally trying to load up before the end of summer and the US deal lands. Held out for too long so far and missed 90p a couple of weeks back
I was sure AS wouldn’t communicate any lab based S&S figures for the LFT as he would wait for the clinical validation results however in the latest interview he says:
I’m not going to get into the detail of the analytical performance figures right now...there will be an appropriate time to discuss those along with the clinical performance‘
I have a feeling we may get some numbers from the LSTM work in the next couple of weeks otherwise why say that? I do think some good S&S figures will propel the sp significantly higher as it’s really the only specific unknown now other than it’s works and AS is very happy.