The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Starting to see why watchlist take off with the likes of PHE and HE1. Looks like the stock market is looking again at crazily undervalued companies, easily 10x for all of these just to get to a low market cap. The big rerate is happening. those in PHE will probably know Eqtec but results due later this week and market cap of £4m having spent best part of £50m so plenty of upsde having once been a £250m mcap in its heyday. exciting times as the stock market relooks at a lot of companies that are 99% down but not out!
I think after some investors sold early in HE1 and missed the 10x in a week they will think twice about selling out of Kefi too quickly because what i am seeing is that companies who do eventually come up trumps after decades of disasters, not all their own making, the market see the line in the sand and start to take the company seriously and the valuation gets properly reviewed as any investor does when comparing their mining investments. With Kefi i think £150m valuation is not out of order once TK is moving properly (cash in the bank) and then some for when JQ is on the move. Hawiah will be bigger than all of these other projects and once the market accepts we are a real operational company than investors will start to look just how big and important that find might be. The best part is Artar will go all in and get it developed as fast as possible so for once Kefi can leave it to the billionaires to get this operational and i am ok with our 25% stake. I understand maybe 2-3 weeks for the second bank to signoff and then we have 70% of the funding sealed. That will only leave the equity investors to sign up and i hope they are all pretty close as the linear approach is really painful. i dont know why this all cant happen simultaneously so equity investors signed up subject to bank finance.
Steady buying all day today so pressure building nicely so surprised share price has not ticked up. Mako mining is digging up and finding more gold than it knows what to do with so even Mako could be a logical JV as they are generating good cash. Goes to show that Nicaragua is a very favourable gold mining juristiction as the cash generation of Calibre and Mako show foreign investors the way forward. https://www.streetinsider.com/Accesswire/Mako+Mining+Announces+Record+Q4+2023+Production+Results/22630135.html
This was the RNS where Eqtec confirmed before chapter 11 we had 49% stake. The purpose of chapter 11 was to refinance the project debt. However i cant say we have had any information what our stake is now and actually i read we wrote off the entire 4.9m euro investment so anything out of that will be a big plus, not least a US project starting operation this month. https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EQT/north-fork-project-finance-update-m0iomil3gevbs4s.html
company wrote off the whole investment as i guess that is expected as part of Chapter 11 from an accountancy perspective but I hope we get a bit more out of this than a case study and expect Eqtec would not be a willing party if we lost our 49% stake. I am not aware that apart from refinancing any new equity investors came in so someone has to own it and Eqtec were the majority single investor and the local community were not doing any whiprounds? anyway be interesting to find out in the next update. could be a nice brucie bonus.
There is a question mark over what our exact stake in Northfork will be but it was implied it was going to be a majority stake after Palumbo invested best part of $3m to get the project complete. Eqtec were the main party keeping the project alive and have continued to provide services. The bankruptcy in US is an arrangement that gave more time to organise finances and therefore not lead to everyone downing tools and mothballing the project. something has gone well as the plant is commissioning as we speak with Eqtec involved so can only assume things are close to coming to fruition and perhaps we will see a substantial return on our investment, long ago written off. It is probably the first update from Eqtec i am looking forward to as i think a lot has been happening and revenue is coming in so it might be the first update that perks up the market. i think it is due in next few weeks. Crazy we are back to £4m valuation and a shareprice that was before we got news on successful refinance of Italy that should repay a good deal of cash to Eqtec and the Italy project should generate a decent revenue going forward due to our 50% stake.
If i were Calibre i would toll this like crazy to pay the cost of building the mine and do it slowly. District is massive and Calibre have well over $100m in cash and probably $200m by eoy looking for a home. However i think Chinese will buy as strategically might suit Nic and china better. However someone from middle east might also have interest. I really hope we find out soon
Eqtec have tech for waste to green hydrogen. They have collaboration agreements in Italy to develop it so your in the right place. https://www.h2-view.com/story/eqtec-and-poseidon-lng-hub-to-develop-waste-to-hydrogen-projects-in-northern-italy/
Looking at Phoenix energy the Northfork plant will be commisssioned this month so when this goes live Eqtec, subject to our shareholding this should be worth around $4m a year from the operating plant. would be great to get this live so we have Italy generating a 2m profit and Northfork $4m and in both projects we are majority shareholder. Best part is the maintenance contract that will generate income each month. And did i mention market cap is just over £4m for entire company? Just legal dispute with Logic could be similar :) if we line up our ducks £40-£50m market cap is not unlikely this year but need those ducks to line, not that they ever have but maybe this time!
Well £100k of buys flooded in today so far. who knows but classically share price has hardly moved. I suspect tomorrow someone will sell £10 and we go down .75p or more based on past experience. Lets hope February is our month to see some benefit from the last 13 months of watching paint dry.
Yes. HE1 10x in a week. Nice for those who saw the underlying value and HE1 is still a fraction of its market cap from a few years back. Once TK is resolved we have a huge gap to fill as JQ alone is worth multiples now of its market cap and Hawiah many times more, not to forget TK. Ultimately this could easily outperform HE1 that is many many years from ever seeing revenue. Gla but when the rise happens look at HE1 and explore the correct market cap of Kefi and not to look at daily price swings that could easily match 100% in a day and then some.
JQ looks like an incredible gold deposit with almost obscene gold grades. JQ looks bigger than many gold mine exploration projects on its own, but our market cap is not remotely valuing deposits. Lets hope TK gets signed off in next week or so.
The toll deal was a huge shame as any revenue would have been better than no reveune even if split was 75/25 in favour of Calibre as long as it included all our costs so we could be guaranteed a royalty. The value of our gold is almost worth 0 today so any way to realise any cash would have had a huge impact on the company valuation as well as provide the revenue to support the borrowing to go into production by now. Huge own goal to have not delivered on that. i suspect we just would not agree a split that would have got this off the ground. if they had i am sure they could have renegotiated later based on what they found in our favour. Key was to get it moving and make decisions fast.
I think Condor was planning and could easily manage a build and why you pay experts to build the mine so that was a throwaway comment that really made no sense given the board knows the gold once dug out of the ground is worth the same wherever you mine but the discount applied on Nic assets is quite high. It makes most sense to sell the gold at $2000 an ounce than sell the mine at $15 an ounce in the ground or whatever it might be. We are leaving $1000 an ounce on the table for the next man. The profit for the buyer will be enormous.
Lets hope the next weeks bring some conclusion to this extended sales process or announce another deal but we need action.
Eqtec are the supplier on this project so more a case if Carbon sole can close the finance. Eqtec only just raised £3.5m and we should have banked nearly £2m from recent front end engineering projects for starters. I think Eqtec have the projects to stand on their own feet, albeit after at 98% collapse in the share price from the peak and £50m of investment from last 5 years. I feel the current £4m market cap is not really factoring any of this in.
Great news. Hopefully they have funding as well so they can crack on as i hope after a 2 1/2 year wait they are eager to get cracking. so many projects bubbling along Eqtec could be 10 bagger in 2024 but most people will still be underwater. I have been averaging down but my word Eqtec need to deliver not just in revenue but in the boards plan to get back all investors money that has been placed into their trust. I remind myself of Richard Branson who took Virgin public and was so upset when shares we trading below the issue price he borrowed the money and paid out all investors at the listing price. That is the sort of management you want who are embarassed and will not rest until Eqtec give a return to investors.
We need to remind ourselves that the sales process was partly in response to the Biden sanction matter that was ultimately a storm in a teacup and financing was out of reach for a period of time. However i did expect, based on tweets an outcome was likely go happen in 6-8 months and if no serious bites market for finance would have improved so could pursue this. The fact this has gone on so long is arguably because we have serious interest but getting otl appears not so easy. I hope Condor are not being strung along but i think we must be close.
Lets hope we start to draw a line under this by end of January. Final bids or close a deal or move on to production. 13 months of selling the asset is coming to a close and 2 advanced discussions announced before Christmas with palapable excitment from MC. Maybe this week an announcement is made or if January is a deadline sometime in early February. The large number of shares changing hands in December was for a reason that only a few know but hopefully we close this chapter.
Tech is not the issue. As already said we have the bank finance proof and as far as i am aware the plant should be now on target for £1m profit as no bank would lend without that buffer. northfork is the biggie and we know it will be commissioned early February. That is huge. In meantime Eqtec must be working at full capacity for all the projects we are already billing in Hawaii and France. 2024 will be year we were led to belive we would have in 2022. 2 years late and a bloody nose but Eqtec are back on track having just raised £3.5m.
I agree. Second bank sign off is key as that all but guarantees the rest will happen given that is 65% of the financing. Our cash burn is less than i thought at only $200k a month that in the grand scheme of things is small and we have barely touched our borrowing facility. Once we break 2.4p we are guaranteed warrant money and everything falls into place for Saudi and Ethiopia. Harry knows the importance of warrants and knows the real time line so happy to wait a few weeks for the pendulum to swing and we start to climb. Just need to confirm the second bank and i then expect a good month or more of positive day on day growth.
Key is getting second bank to sign credit. We have been told its soon, maybe within a week. Once that happens everything will slot into place. We have plenty of short-term finance and currently we owe very little compared to previous years. Harry needs to keep the 1.6p warrants warm and he has reiterated no plan for a placing before TK finance that he must be pretty confident will happen. Once we get to that point remember Kefi is a supplier to TKGM so we will be putting in invoices to TKGM when the $390m finance is organised, and who knows, but as we are majority shareholder in the project we are in a good place as Kefi to borrow as we would be almost debt free as Kefi so would be able to borrow on this asset as security. Remember last webinar said Saudi news coming but would really like second bank to sign off debt so the impact of Saudi update will have some impact.