The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
As always with Renx this type of news - which from a clinical treatment perspective is undoubtedly positive - is greeted with despair by investors. Looks like large holders in the US have given up - Nasdaq in free fall - or word is out on funding news and it’s painful. Expect we will hear whether business survives in its current form very soon. SB
It appears Renx no longer qualifies to be listed on Nasdaq due to its diminished market cap and ADS shares trading significantly below issue price. Company has 180 days to remedy the situation, although by my reckoning there is likely to be enough money in the bank to get us through January expenses but that's it in the absence of any new funds - so Nasdaq issue may be academic. SB
Just as we start to make some positive progress Liontrust appear to have lent 500K shares to shorters who have sold them into the market in last 48 hours reducing share price by 10%. Whilst Liontrusts 500K shares get repaid at the strike price the rest of their significant 12% holding gets hammered. Unless its a play to lower the price to allow them or others to purchase more shares below the recently increasing price. It remains a difficult market for PI's when this type of institutional behaviour exists. Dartron - appears your +19% exit was very well timed. SB
HNY all. I increased my position here pre-Xmas - good timing for once. I’m still under water but have lowered my overall average and as noted previously I’m hopeful ekf will have a decent 2024 - core business is still growing at 10% and if they can secure some decent enzyme custom then we should see a gradual increase in overall positive sentiment - noting we have already started that in the last few weeks. SB
Your not all alone oldbut......I think the whole infra sector offers pretty decent value at the levels across the sector - including INPP. Debt free in January despite making a further significant OFTO investment, chairman buying shares, increasing 2023 dividend by 5%, confirming minimum 2.5% increase going forward, £30m 2024 share purchase programme - I agree we should start to see the discount to NAV narrowing over the course of the year alongside interest rates potentially starting to reduce mid year. Still decent upside from current price (my average is just over £1.40) - should easy make a 10%+ annual return here (capital and dividend) I also hold GABI and GCP - some interesting stuff happening there as well - and RECI. To 2024......ATB. SB
I prefer omnishambles PB….closer to the absolute car crash we have witnessed. I watched the vox update unhooked - mills not exactly inspiring any confidence there is a rescue plan here - and given he is chairman that’s not a good sign. Huge shareholder dilution or pre-pack admin methinks. SB
To think they have taken a $billion company to this point losing hundreds of millions of investment is quite incredible. Cannot fathom why they let it get to this stage if this wasn’t the plan all along to take the company private for a few million. I know AIM is high risk but this type of corporate behaviour is very very poor. SB
Lol uhhooked!! AGM at 3.30pm today - I half expected an AGM RNS statement from our Chairman (think we still have one of those) this morning. But alas.....we will get the voting results close of play. SB
Non exec resigning with immediate effect (that’s two in six weeks), 25% fall on nasdaq, no sign of financing in place and an AGM on Friday which could spell the end as we know it. Omnishambles. SB
AGM on 15th. Includes votes on issuing new equity…..if the company makes it to next week. Wonder what our new financial non exec has been up to as the company implodes. Our new CBO Doran got 300k share options at 30 cents a share a few weeks ago. What on earth is going on here. SB
Glad to be of service unhooked!! Unfortunately I chased the price down and am sitting on a large loss. I sold some at 70p recently for which I had paid 75p - goodness knows how I wished I had sold the lot. To think a few months ago we were at £1.50 let alone 2 years ago and here we are now staring at a penny share. And the crazy thing this is without large volume selling - just shows the impact of PIs running for the hills and Armistice short selling. They can only have enough funding for another few weeks so the end could come quickly. $8m from Jefferson Capital wiped out in 10 months - pretty sure Tony J will be asking a few questions from his pals at Mount Sinai. That said he's probably part of the team eyeing up whether to take this private - although they will need to commit a lot of $$$ for the next few years - and that's possibly what's holding things up. Next RNS sure will be interesting......can James M pull a phoenix out the flames??? SB
What a fall from grace - a complete investment disaster. It’s not just PIs who have been burnt - core shareholders, II’s and bond holders all virtually wiped out. James M - highly paid I’ll give you that - has lost $30m in paper. Cant see all that value and potential going without some attempt to capitalise the company / but it’s looking very grim. Armistice have made a packet - and that’s the name of the game. We all hung around in hope and that’s not good investing decision making. Another stock for the AIM cemetery. SB
Prior to yesterday SRC had spent £600m acquiring businesses which had a market cap of c. £350m and net debt of £180m. The new deal will increase net debt to more than £600m. Assuming the market places a similar discount on its new acquisition to those proceeding there could be a material medium term slide in the current share price - have to hope new investors are in for the long haul and do not flood the market with cheap shares or this could get a lot worse. SB
Out of interest one of my favourite apocalyptic movies from the 80's starred Mel Gibson. It was called Mad Max (MM). Deal 1 looks like we are paying a multiple of 8 for the businesses involved (745m euro to purchase a business looking to make c.90m euro ebitda 2023). SRC trades on a multiple of just over 3. The scale of debt being raised at near 15 year interest rates is significant (c.7% all in) which will be added to existing overall debt. Still 52m new share options being issued to the management team post completion will ease the pain for some. Shareholders at the end of a long line to see any return here - and from the looks of it there is more to come.....MM2 and MM3 much like the movies. Buy to build. Invest to lose. SB
The end of another rather unhappy week in Renx world. I listened to the Q1 webinar - and in many ways was surprised by the lack of anger from the fund managers invested here - but I guess its not actually their money that has been lost. I have decided to remain a holder (and if you have sold - good luck - and I can fully understand why) given my losses are so large I may as well hang around to see this through to the end. The positives to take from this week - and when I say positives I am trying to justify not selling - focus on three key areas. Firstly we have not seen large scale selling - yes the price got hammered but look like II's have largely stayed in position (we will see if any TR1's come out next week) so there must still be some confidence Renx can get out of this. Secondly there was a strong reference to a financing option being sorted pre xmas. This will be difficult given the requirement of existing core shareholders to minimise any dilution given what they have sunk in so far, the amount of new equity which new investors may require from said core shareholders before committing funds and the cost to the business of additional financing. Lastly, and this is linked to the second point - I believe any new funds being committed will only be done with the express agreement of the business to cut costs on scale - and this appears to have started. Aside from these points there are the updates on medicare and KDIGO due imminently which are clearly important milestones if achieved; and the sales force with a new focus and leadership with highly motivated territory managers are coming on stream albeit not for a few months yet. It goes without saying a huge amount of 'what next' relies on financing to be secured on terms acceptable to the core shareholders; but we have to hope they wish the business to remain a public company rather than a delisted entity. ATB all after a horrible few days here. SB
Have a look at RECI - 9% and loan book looks ok with company almost out of all of ‘risky’ bond positions. I hold but as always dyor. SB
Quick review - declining revenue, failure to deliver expected savings, cash burn still in excess of $10m per quarter. Current cash will last until February 2024. Vague reference to new funding and looking to start physician targeted sales force in 2024 possibly with benefit of Medicare approval in 2024. Expect this will be heavily marked down at opening. Renx is now on life support - I am starting to consider the possibility this is deliberate to allow a delisting to occur. I hope I am wrong. SB
MS remains pretty much the only customer Renx have - and the big issue is that the 1200 tests per quarter which were being pushed through the MS testing contact are no longer being fully reimbursed - so the harsh reality is Renx's revenue is now c.60% of what is was a year ago - it is going backwards. Apart from that we have single test decision's in New York which must cost more to admin than the test itself and the new 'testing' contract with Atrium/Wake Forest which does not appear to have started yet. Apart from that its just 'wind and p**s' as my old boss used to say. Insurance coverage, partnerships, eversansa sales team, middle east distributor, clinical advisory board, patents, real world evidence - I am sure you get the picture but anything to mask the fact no-one is buying the company's sole product. Innovative - absolutely. Desired - absolutely not. In the meantime, short positions are destroying what value remains in the business in a familiar vulture circling the wounded animal scene. We are approaching the 99% club - almost a complete loss of the company's peak valuation. Sorry for the negativity but this is getting very serious imo. SB
No problem Datron - its the Q3 update you are looking for. Share went ex-dividend (1.75p) today hence the drop. Gravis run a few funds - about £3B in total - although currently all valued significantly less. I am also invested in their asset backed fund - GABI - which has also been hammered recently and yields 10%. That business has a lot of short term loans due to be repaid over next three years - and there is a continuation vote in May 2024 where shareholders can vote whether they wish to see that company wind itself up - presumably by paying back capital to shareholders when loans expire rather than reinvest - so it may have a limited shelf life but could deliver some impressive returns. GCP has an average loan life of 10 years so i don't see the same issue arising here - although it is due to receive £300m of repayments in the next four years alone - bearing in mind current market cap. SB
Evening Dartron. Try this - although I had to register but perhaps that was for the live on the day option. https://www.graviscapital.com/webinars
Still dividend hunting eh - this is a good one to buy and hold imo. Especially if you've just paid off your mortgage :-D SB