George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
The big risk here remains the funding elephant in the room. Renx has assembled all the bits required for a jigsaw - but can’t complete the picture until it has demonstrated all its successes lead to a viable, commercial and profitable business. We know that’s going to take time - and will require a lot more cash (or access to it) than currently available. There are going to be ups and downs in the coming weeks and months - and there will always be speculation on the upside and downside - the longs and shorts as we have come to know them. There was always likely to be a fall back post FDA / let’s hope it’s not too grim. SB
Apart from the great news about FDA - todays action in the UK (1m shares) and the US (33m shares) shows the future is Nasdaq. I would not be surprised if moves are already afoot. Here’s to more good news in the coming weeks - and congrats to those who held and are starting to see a recovery in their holding. SB
For the night owls among you…..
“ FDA Grants De Novo Marketing Authorization for KidneyIntelX.dkd to Assess Risk of Progressive Kidney Function Decline in Adults with Diabetes and Early-Stage Kidney Disease”. See website for more details.
Phew. Should be a good day tomorrow :-D SB
I recall that comment too vig. It would appear Julian Baines did not value the contributions from former CEO Mike Salter (his replacement) or now former CFO Marc Davies (his pal Richard’s replacement). Baines wants a simple POC business and anyone senior associated with the ADL debacle, covid write downs looks like they are the carrying the blame for going off piste. Let’s hope there is not trouble with the life sciences investment which has led to this latest in a long line of poor news flow. SB
Just when you think things are improving. What is it with this business. We now no longer have a permanent CEO or CFO - with an uneasy feeling there may be further financial issues on the horizon with this latest disclosure. Not great - again. SB
…..and so the waiting continues!!! Stating the obvious but only three mornings left in Q2 2023 for an RNS update. SB
All - the following may help explain the 'discrepancy' in H1 profitability v H1 2022. The key issue is valuations - actual loan interest on the portfolio has increased. I assume the risk premium being applied to asset discount rates is increasing - leading to the quoted valuation loss.
" The Company generated (H1 2023) operating income of £35.6 million (31 March 2022: £117.6 million) including loan interest income of £40.9 million and net unrealised valuation losses on investments of £17.4 million (31 March 2022: loan interest income of £35.8 million, net unrealised valuation gains on investments of £72.0 million).
" The comparative period last year included material upward revaluations resulting from significantly increased electricity price forecasts; this period saw significant volatility but with lower short-term prices and lower long-term forecasts than last year. Net gains on derivative financial instruments at period end were £11.9 million (31 March 2022: £4.2 million), reflecting the electricity price hedging arrangements which locked in attractive price levels for the Company." SB
Thanks for the update hawker - interesting development. One way or another we will hear next week on the FDA position. Let’s hope todays sell has not been tipped off. For a company on the precipice of great news the interest in UK and US is miserable - I guess it’s the dichotomy of all or nothing now. SB
Its's more than just a rumour vig - " BlackRock Financial Markets Advisory and the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy signed a memorandum of understanding in November 2022 after Fink and Zelenskyy met in September to discuss driving public and private investments into Ukraine to rebuild the country after Russia’s highly destructive invasion."
Blackrock still playing both sides of SRC - although their 'short' position is down to 6m shares in addition to their 60m+ long position. Should get a H1 2023 update in a month or so - should be decent but still disappointing with lack of return for investors - capital or distribution. SB
Not so sure you can describe Mike Salters appointment as a hospital pass - some of the decisions during his tenure as CEO were very costly to the business in $$ and reputation. That said - there clearly is a belief he is the man to steer the life sciences fermentation business. Or leave any final management tidying up to the new CEO - now that's a hospital pass. SB
Whilst it has been disappointing to the price slide back into the 50's rather than continue to trend upwards, it is worth noting that the proposed capital reduction was approved shareholders at the AGM in April and thereafter by the courts on 23rd May 2023. This has created distributable reserves and will allow the company to pay dividends, make distributions or undertake purchases of its own shares - noting none have actually been proposed to date - but at least the mechanics to allow such actions has been put in place. SB
There we have it. 9%. 2 x current BoE interest rate. Makes you wonder what doom market is starting to price. Bonkers. SB
Some useful feedback all - thanks for your contributions. It is pretty clear there is strong link between the increasing price of govt debt (gilts, bonds) interest rates and impact on infrastructure yields. That said - the risk premium is way excessive imo. Monetary policy is all over the place in the UK at present - I can only imagine Jeremy Hunt is to some extent fortunate he is not making the calls on interest rates - although all too late from Threadneedle Street. I thought GCP had priced in a mini armageddon when it went started to yield 8% - but to be approaching 9%?. And talk of 10%. Although that is the direction of travel it is uncomfortable to see the conclusion of utter incompetence from the BoE. I am a holder here - and remain so - accepting its going to take some pain to get the economy back in order and turn the tide on the share price - I'm on an 8% yield so will take that in the meantime despite the capital loss. Full employment - if those claims are real - will not help. The general population seems to be spending like its going out of fashion - despite everything you read about household budgets, cost of living, energy, mortgages etc. As for GCP - there must be some grey matter at work considering its options - scale up the buy back; go for a tender offer ie take shares off market and increase dividend/yield. The fund discount is now 30% - several hundreds of £millions. Or sit tight and see where it all ends up. Quite a mess all round. SB
Despite GCP continuing buy backs - 500k alone yesterday - price still in free fall. 80p breach not good - possible floor broken - could be another difficult week. The aim to preserve capital with a decent yield now shattered. SB
So…..1240 tests in Q3. Problem is 33% are non billable - part of clinical evidence test programmes which are paid for by Renx. So 800 paid tests - $0.7m revenue. Messaging is clear on way forward - FDA, Medicare and insurance coverage should open the order book and create enough barriers to entry to secure a significant market advantage. Easy peasy eh…..and $$$$ in investor cash! SB
Possibly just me but didn’t think it would take four months to pull together a job spec and advert for a CEO. Not exactly prioritising the role…..SB
I agree a reduction in tests is not great news - and will no doubt be received poorly - but IF there are signs insurers are paying rather than relying on Sinai evidence tests then that is the critical commercial step change needed if the business is to ultimately become a viable operation. SB
Sales of the test have been running at c.100 per week for some time now andypa - almost all via the $6m Sinai evidence programme. That in itself was disappointing given we were advised the target was 300 a week - although I suspect that means the evidence programme would have ended much earlier than Q3 2023. So yes - looks like revenue will be less than Q2; however at some point they are going to have to clarify where test sales are coming from - something there has always been a reluctance to do presumably because its been 95% Sinai. Renx in now almost 6 months in with its VA access programme; claims to have witnessed a ramp up of test sales using its sales portal; is receiving insurance backed sales in New York; seeing primary care led sales in Illinois with its 70%+ super majority insurance coverage; Eversana; etc. The benefits of these multiple revenue channels should start to be seen in Q4. FDA and Medicare LCD pretty much essential in terms of credibility and public reimbursement. Assume GM will get all its approval later today. Probably a bit of disappointment in the morning with reported numbers - but hoping the earnings call will be informative. SB
Welcome back dartron….almost. Good day trade - when opportunity knocks. SB
And so the madness continues.....I guess Jefferies were right on the historic underperform call....if interest rates continue to climb does this get driven below 80p? At what point does a larger fund start to see value here in the medium term and try their luck. Divi next week, results in a couple of weeks, new NAV due mid July. Not likely to make any impact in current sector decline. SB