The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Yeah what's the wording on releasing price sensitive news? Is it in a "Timely manner" which gives some wriggle room, not sure if I read that in the AIM rules or whether it's an 'accepted wisdom' of the LSE board though (which could mean anything), will have a dig when I can unless someone else beats me to it. It's a right riveting read.... https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/AIM%20Rules%20for%20Companies%20%2801012021%29_1.pdf
With regards the CEO BigB I think judgement should be suspended until firstly we know for certain that we have a commercial well and secondly what the plan is going forward. In the op's success case I will only feel inspired by BLOE if I see evidence that improved revenues will give them the freedom to make a parallel operations a reality and perhaps some evidence that the geothermic is not just lip service or even box ticking but a strategy to make BLOE more investible to funds leaving pure O&G plays, the big picture, a long play. In the near term it's all about the O&G and that's what I invested in obviously. Going back to the CEO I guess what we all want see is P1 revenues invested in growing the company for shareholders rather than being an opportunity to enrich the Exec's. They all have plenty of shares so I hope they recognise the big bucks are in aligning themselves with shareholders not milking the company. A small gesture would be the Directors waiving their early repayment fees on the loans which should be repayable if we have production at WR34, not holding my breath though.
To be fair the history of P1 has shown that even though it's the same technical concept they've all unfolded differently. Initial results have been misleading in a bad way in the past and more recently giving the SP an unwarranted knock at WR-B01Za. The TMS Reach article does a suggest that an Op's focused article will follow hard on results and I wonder if to fully launch the strategy we need a steady performer with WR34 so certainty required first. Hard I know as we're all desperate to hear about the next steps asap.
As Heps pointed out a week or two ago JKT-01Z results came quite quickly. I think initial rates were announced after just a couple of weeks. WR-B01Za took quite a while before we knew we had a good earner but perhaps that reflected the well bore issues during drilling. On thing for sure after past mistakes in 2019 I don't expect them to start shouting about prod rates until they're certain.
Oldlogger I was of the mind that something hugely unexpected was unlikely for the reasons you listed. In other words the history of the field has given us a reasonable level of certainly that we'll get commercial wells with modern techniques but we're unlikely to knock the ball out of the park given the historic draining of the field. However I had missed the line about this part of the reservoir being untouched, was that in an RNS or the Krtanisi CPR? If we can get decent production plus book an unproven part of the reservoir into our reserves could our value get a leg up on two fronts?
Pretty much agree with that Heps, feels a bit like BLOE are setting the stage for WR34 results, not something we've seen recently. As others have have mentioned part II of the TMS coverage does suggest some developments of the wider strategy at long last. Still as someone invested I'm probably guilty of optimism bias and I am wondering why we're not seeing more interest in the market. Perhaps a lot of wounded investors following the regional destabilisation though I admire the way TMS addressed that head on, I do wonder if geopolitics combined with O&G being an out of vogue sector means that even with good results there will be sellers and it won't be hard to buy for anyone favouring the risk reward.
If Bitsa is around I'd be interested to know if there is any activity at KRT-45? I haven't been able to locate it despite being close to 39, perhaps as they never produced from it the pad has just weathered back or been restored to farmland? Anyway if it is the next ST well shouldn't civil works be visible? Possible new wells from existing pads so could be harder to spot. Anyone with live satellite images?
As I'm desperate to defer a hedge cutting task another thought about attracting new investors. Once we get comfortably solvent I would like to see some progress on the geothermal asap. No need for eye rolls at my tree hugging tendencies but just like the big boys we need to need to show we're serious about the energy transition. O&G is going to be around for a long time yet but the ESG profile of the company is important if, as we grow we hope to court the fund managers. Georgia is also a signatory to the Paris agreement so has its own commitments which we need to align with to be consistent with our in-country relationship. Should also be lot's of free money kicking about for it also on a cynical note!
Interesting BR, I wonder if further farm-in partners might want to see the completed seismic at Dido Lilo & South Samgori from GOGL. Would be good to know where they are with that though their 'News' page doesn't inspire much confidence with the last entry being Nov 22, hopefully all going on under the radar....
I have to admit I would also be surprised if we get two more PI wells in before the years end, BLOE have a terrible record with timescales. This time last year we still thought PIII was starting before the year end. Or look at the PI CPR dated March 22 "Block Energy plans to drill a further five wells during 2H 2022 to 1H 2023". Hopefully WR-34 is indeed a result and they have the confidence to press on hard, my hope is that we get results soon with news that "Civil works are underway at.......", maybe I'm losing it :) I have a funny feeling we may not drill KRT-45, just a hunch but it lies outside of the area of "greater fracturing", had water at 1600m and didn't go on production. Maybe they'll go for a new well with the multi-lateral technology that Chesh mentioned yesterday, weren't these planned from existing pads, so a bit of streamlining there? So while I agree that we need to crack on we do need to caution that what BLOE is implementing is pretty much the antithesis of wildcatting, as we all know we're dealing with part depleted fields and can only have success by utilising the best technology accurately. Oh last thing while I'm on one someone mentioned farm-ins on P IV, as I understand we already have a 50% deal with GOGC in which they have $US3m spending commitments on seismic so that takes care of itself for now I believe. As ever just the musings of an O&G layman so open to differing views, constructive preferably (lest I awake the Harpy!).
WR-B01Za was on extended testing for 12 days but that was after we had preliminary results. Sounds like this well went like clockwork so perhaps they're going straight into the full test. My guess with WR-B01Za was always that they were duty bound to announce the complications and changes to the well design but wanted to put the positive production indications to offset the worrying news. The net result was still negative in the market if I remember correctly with the extended test later rewarding those who didn't panic. Events unfolded differently at JKT-01Z with different timescales so my layman's conclusion would be that every well is different - bleeding obvious etc... etc :)
I agree Hepseal though I also see a fair to good result as a gateway to the much anticipated multiple front strategy, that's why I'm a tad nervous about a negative result leaving us in limbo and no doubt at the mercy of the Directors hatching another self serving loan arrangement. To be honest I'm not expecting that as logic would point to the likelihood of a commercial well based on the evidence of our past performance in this formation. Something tells me it would take something remarkable for us to break the shackles of the current range but the market generally looks forward and if this well does provide the foundations to launch PII in tandem and importantly they communicate the potential effectively then some sustained growth in the mcap looks probable in the success case with WR-34Z. We also shouldn't forget that the companies valuation won't only be moved by production as reserves will also increase if WR-34Z hits the spot, as an earlier RNS pointes out the next well will also be more ambitious in this respect, not sure when we can expect this to be independently evaluated though.
Guess we have to hope it's a tight ship at WR-34Z as there is nothing in the market to suggest a positive leak. On the flip side it doesn't appear that bad news has leaked either. Feels a bit like a stalemate where bad news could mean further deferral of the multi front strategy and a decent result while shoring up the strategy of incrementally growing income would still see transformational results some way off? Discuss :)
Delboy for me it depends whether you use WR-B0IZ or JKT-01Z as a guide for timescales. JKT-01Z was about 5 weeks from spud to initial results, WR-B0IZ quite a bit longer. As an optimist it feels like the current well has gone smoothly so I'm leaning towards the JKT-01Z case. They might announce TD and clean up ops before we hear about initial production though.
Hi Mailgirl hopefully the news will continue to flow, last environmental report for the MLA is due by the end of the month so I assume they'll announce when the MLA is actually lodged with the Junta.
Hi Buzzcoin - those results do indeed make great reading and will substantially contribute to our new JORC. We actually reported them on the 4th though. I had assumed that Denarius were waiting for the assays from the final hole 051 before announcing but they haven't been returned yet so that will likely be the next RNS here if they decide to report the findings from one hole.