RE: RE: 15p Target6 May 2025 10:33
Stebo,
Well done for actually posting your workings, for others to consider.
I think you're clearly invested and a little biased (as am I), but also not that far off the mark.
I see things a little differently...
I think this will be a launchpad for bigger things -
"High probability of being hundreds of percent higher" is enough of a short term forecast for me.
Dividends - and future value - which changes dramatically when you consider the potential of further discoveries (possible, not guaranteed - but likely based on the companies' outlook) - future licences, existing additional licenses etc. But taking what we have now - what would you pay for a 0.5p per share dividend over 7 years? What about if the POG appreciates by 100's%? (my thesis, and whole reason for seeking this as an investment) so 1.5p / share ? Sure- "what if" it has production issues and goes wrong... but that's the nature of investing... "what if" it gets sold... it might - maybe even a hostile takeover... or an offer which is accepted by the majority of S/H... maybe... I don't think it's HAA's plan - he's said repeatedly (and to my face) that he wants to pay dividends, as he thinks companies are undervalued when they don't and it doesn't reward s/h (him included)...
Let's assume a modest 5% dividend of 0.5p - gives 10p a share.
1.5p? 30p a share.
Not ignoring that all that free cash flow can be redeployed to not only discoveries, but acquisitions and JV to grow...
(Financial) De-risking is the starting gun which a new type of investor uses to begin building a position.
MC growth will see us included in funds, and more PR, and everyone will look and wish they bought now...
Ethiopia has been on a journey of political change, financial modernisation, deregulation and opening up of the economy of 127+m people - it's a success story in the making we will ride the back of.
Slow, fast, doesn't matter.
Only one way this is going imo / risk and all.
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