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How's that happened? What's 30 pips? - 30 pence equivalent?

A late reported trade from yesterday is showing of 11,080 shares at 1864.00, posted at about 12 noon. Has that triggered your stop?

DD - Thanks for the comprehensive reply. I have never used SB etc, so genuinely intrigued by its mechanics and the thought processes behind it.

As for Yu's growth, all is down to opinion. For the next 2-3 years I think the growth is sustainable. The leverage in their business is very significant, and if it pans out (£2.5 - £3bn T/o) I see eps over £10 and a SP over £100. There will eventually be a brick wall limit on the market share it can capture, say 6-8%.

If this rise continues to Tues, then yes I also see the chance of a fall on the day, regardless of the TU. However, if good, as last year, I would expect a long trend up to form until the H1 interims in Sept afterwards.

The 100k target for meter installs in 2025, was verbally given in an analysts meeting. I expect the next round of broker notes to comment on this. Besides, it fits with having 200 engineers - they won't be paid to be idle all day long. I suspect there is a closer working relationship with Shell than meets the eye, to support rapid growth, then perhaps an exit sale to Shell 3-5 years on.

I don't get 130p. That was NG. I commented I am in the same ball park. I am on £750m revenue for 2024 at the moment (£320m for H1) but will revise as we get the update. I have similar margins to last year, but with increased O/s. EBITDA of £30m ish for H1. It's simply my own research, maths and intuition. NG and Ipc also sometimes post their forecasts on here and we all three have been consistently ahead of brokers and very accurate in our estimates long before the brokers producing 'final' estimates in January. We've been here swapping thoughts a good 2-3 years now.

I only post here. I do not wish to be caught in the cross-fire of stuff going on elsewhere. I have my own boundaries and will respond, in my own way, should they be crossed.

DD, aren't you going over board on the fundamental research on this, for a trader? You're digging in every corner, lifting every stone, going through reports, asking BBs detailed questions and even doing your own sums now! From the recent lows of 1600 / 1650, you've already missed 2 quid a share.

So, what's your plan of action now? All trades carry risk. SB now or wait till next Tues? It's interesting to compare the two styles. Post up your trade when you do. Fascinated by your thought process. If it's ahead, will you stay in until Sept results?

DB19 - the results show point 1 as "Working capital requirement" as appropriate for the hedging arrangements. The numbers are getting seriously large. I think it was NG who posted that they are required to hold 1 month's working capital on the B/s as cash as part of the Shell deal - better in Yu's bank earning interest rather than Shells / Smartests. As always, cash includes accrued ROC payments, which will be as good as held in escrow, and should be deducted.

The last RNS states "primary aim to provide flexibility for future distributions by the Company, should they be appropriate." It's open to interpretation, but it's clearly promising nothing, at this stage.

If we get nothing, then even I will be disappointed. I have previously suggested 20p special. And perhaps a modest buyback - say £2 - £4m worth. Given today's price action, they may launch a buyback, but then find they are locked out by the price mechanism. But with a few quid on the price, it's job done!

All sensible expectations. Eps around 130p will place full year Eps north of 260p, going on 300p. Maintaining PER of 10, or just under, then gives £30 SP. And then at the 1/3 dividend, we get the £1 dividend I can still recall us on here calling out some 18 months back!

I am not expecting much in the way of a special / buyback at this stage. As the numbers get bigger, they will hold back cash to ensure their monthly working capital flows are safe. I say this to caution anyone who may be setting themselves up for disappointment.

Just goes to show that the weakness in the SP was anxiety over TUs - ie whether we would get one at all, and if that was foretelling bad news. As they had previously put on the website the results in Sept, but no mention of a July TU, to some extent implied no TU was coming! I had money on today, as posters here had contacted the broker saying this week and re-checking past dates, it's always a Tuesday, can't see a Thursday.

When does a SP ever react in this way on the notice of a TU? Woken the traders up anyway, given them a bit more food for a trade. On a stellar update, where's the price gonna land next Tuesday?

Superb.

Target was for 200 engineers. And aiming for 25k meters fitted by year end and 125k by end of 2025. Target to fit 100k a year. Say each does 2 a day, for a 40 week year (holidays, other downtime, travelling, training, other duties) - 80,000. In the right area.

If they can fit around 80-100k meters a year, what does that say about the targets for acquiring new customer meter points for 2025 and beyond? Ties in with the Shell deal described as a "game changer in terms of scale and speed". I don't have any doubts on the Shell deal - sounds like a close working relationship between the two to scale rapidly.

In the short term - a big jump in overheads to factor in.

DD - Fair points. The lack of any AGM statement is highly unusual. Many companies don't produce a full TU at the AGM, but at least say a bland couple of sentences - confirming things are on track. But we did get a 'presentation'.

Re Shell - there is no need to post cash collateral. With T/o approaching £1bn, the monthly credit due to Shell will be hitting £100m, before long. Shell must be demanding security of some sort. An important question, which I need addressing (and so should any rational holder). - On Companies House there is a full legal charge in favour of Shell over the subsidiary trading companies - the holding company has pledged the trading company's shares as security - ie if Yu default, Shell gets the company! Or so it seems to me - it's a long read and have only scanned through quickly.

All necessary documents re the capital reduction have been duly filed to CH. They are now free to make their decisions as appropriate ... ... and that's if any!

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/10004236/filing-history

And who is the market? The brokers? Institutions, ie Premier Miton? Long term PIs with sizable holdings?

Nothing wrong with your figures - sensible enough on the info we have. It's only a TU, so won't get profit figures.

They hinted the Shell deal was on better financial terms, so could be slightly higher margin, but more likely passed on to new customers in lower prices, to boost growth in meters. Big unknown is overheads, with expansion of Yu Smart engineers, training, vans etc. Company has said 6-8% margin (but admitting this being cautious), brokers are at 6-7%.

They are deliberately putting out low guidance, not wanting to risk a 'miss'. The outlook for the rest of the year will be more important - looking for the magic words 'significantly ahead of current market expectations'.

" At an average of £10k contracted income per meter, this revenue base could be achieved from an expansion in average meters of only 25% to c67k, meaning this growth guidance, while optically aggressive, could actually transpire to be conservative. We are taking a prudent approach to forecasting and estimate Group revenues of £668m in FY24E (+45% YoY)." SP Angel note.

My guess he's a trader, probably using SB / CFDs. Traders normally open their positions at 8am on the morning of the TU and will then trade the trend for as long as it lasts. With Yu, this will likely be all the way to H1 results. Traders don't run the risk of opening their position before the TU - if it's good they will forego the rise at open, but also not lose money on calling it wrong. Consider last year - about 600p before the July update, up to 1000 afterwards, pull back to 900 ish, then to 1200+ for H1 results.

Odds are he should be going long now! If he does, I wish him a good trade!!!!

Reads like that subject to getting finance & remaining DD, the board will recommend the 135 offer! Previous 'offers' must have been around the 120 - 130p range! Obviously very in the dark here and getting the future prospects and growth of EQLS wrong. Not the business I thought this was. Looking at the last TU, it's only solutions which is growing. The other sales lines are flat at best. If the board is mindful to accept 135p, then some serious reflection is required!

The company has guided for 50% increase in revenue - so £690m (hence, current broker estimates)!!!!

Allowing for the the normal H1/H2 split of around 45/55%, any 'thoughts' on H1 revenue close to £310m are difficult to argue with. You are clearly capable of doing your own maths and getting sensible estimates. If you continue with the maths on that revenue, you will get adj eps for H1 in excess of 100p, and hence, by extension, full year eps, way over 200p. ie significantly more than (current) broker notes.

There is no set date for the July TU. It could drop any day (plus news of a special dividend or buyback???).

Hi Sparks - 75k meters sounds about right to me as well. They were adding around 15,000 per half last year, so doing plus 20k in H1 and plus 25k in H2 this year will hit the target. As we know, they first mentioned this target at H1 results last year, and have re-confirmed it at full results in March and at the AGM presentation. Suggests they are on target to get close to it / surpass it. Also, as some have suggested, the increasing collateral will have constrained the amount of new business bookings. The Shell deal has removed these shackles. So, yes, should be very good figures.

One for you, Sparks - enjoy!

https://knowledge.sharescope.co.uk/2024/04/12/screening-for-my-next-long-term-winner-yu-group/

This guy is pretty thorough. Wrote for Motley Fool for a good 15 years. Is very good at spotting duds and dodgy accounting, eg Cake Box in January 2022 - https://knowledge.sharescope.co.uk/2022/01/21/cake-box-holdings-cbox/

Another customer with multiple sites

https://www.yuenergy.co.uk/growing-with-yu-dobbies-garden-centres-case-study/

So, it's back to waiting on a bumper TU. A lot is going on in the company, operationally and financially. So, much to update on. New broker notes also expected (with upgrades)?

Just wondering if the dates are wrong. Equals did similar last year. Court date was 24/10/23. Completion date was 31/10/23 (1 week later). RNS confirming was 01/11/23. Completion also included filing details to Companies House. So, maybe no RNS until the required forms have been submitted to CH? Could be therefore another few days. Alternatively, the court may have declined it!

Well, interesting that Liberum had a TU pencilled in! It was me who first queried the wording of AGM Statement.

On recent form from Yu, I'm not expecting much tomorrow. They'll need board meetings etc to formally approve another dividend and / or buyback. It would be premature to pre-empt the court approval. So, it'll probably all be in the TU, later in the month. They may hint that the board is considering its options, something on those lines. Nothing definite will be approved yet.

Https://youtu.be/yEiSDzKsDLM?si=U8XLx1Iyl6R6MH4G&t=2360

More from Richard Staveley at Rockwood

I'd like to think that at this price they'll have the sense to start an immediate buyback on the 3rd July!