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renroc to sell to crystalise a tax loss you would have to wait 30 days to buy back right.... you may miss the record date for the open offer.
Renroc...... The open offer price will be 0.3p.... by making attractive i mean they will need to deliver something and regain sentiment to increase the share price so that we are happy to buy at 0.3. That's why i see it as low risk here, because you know that in the next month or two they will need to bring this share price up to encourage subscription to the fundraising.
Here's what i posted yesterday.....
I have been looking at some other examples of Open offers, and perhaps the promise of this to follow rather than with the placing is not so out of the ordinary, and may actually work out well for us... May have been quick to make assumptions.
One particular example i looked at, the open offer was announced with the placing, with the details, timetable and circular posted a couple of weeks later. The process took a further month with results published and shares admitted after that period. The record date for participation was the trading day before the details were announced, so if you are not in before it will be too late..... So it's highly possible that NUOG will follow a similar model.
In hindsight this may work out better than i might have initially expected. I guess if nothing else, it buys them a bit more time to deliver something to convince shareholders to take up the offer and to restore the share price to a level where buying at 0.3 will reward them as expected. For example if they get the SPV sorted, get the seed finance sorted, and maybe even the HOT for the 2 priority projects, then we may well be only wishing we could buy more at 0.3p.
I'm sure i'll be told that this is NUOG and expecting them to make that progress in the time required is ambitious... but these open offer shares will be be gold if that comes through... for example... if you have 10m shares you can buy 600k at 0.3, if the GTW projects took us to a conservative 1p, thats £4,200 instant profit. Even at 0.6 pre palacing price thats £1800 profit.
Yes renrco - the open offer will likely have a record date of the day before it is announced, so anyone on the register as of the day before the announcement can participate. So seeing that it is yet to be announced, anyone buying now will be ok.
If the company want subscription to those funds, its down to them to make it attractive to shareholders buy ensuring the price is at a level where the discount is attractive IMO
mcadder... you will do well if it does.... it certainly seems worth this risk at this price...
I have been looking at some other examples of Open offers, and perhaps the promise of this to follow rather than with the placing is not so out of the ordinary, and may actually work out well for us... May have been quick to make assumptions.
One particular example i looked at, the open offer was announced with the placing, with the details, timetable and circular posted a couple of weeks later. The process took a further month with results published and shares admitted after that period. The record date for participation was the trading day before the details were announced, so if you are not in before it will be too late..... So it's highly possible that NUOG will follow a similar model.
In hindsight this may work out better than i might have initially expected. I guess if nothing else, it buys them a bit more time to deliver something to convince shareholders to take up the offer and to restore the share price to a level where buying at 0.3 will reward them as expected. For example if they get the SPV sorted, get the seed finance sorted, and maybe even the HOT for the 2 priority projects, then we may well be only wishing we could buy more at 0.3p.
I'm sure i'll be told that this is NUOG and expecting them to make that progress in the time required is ambitious... but these open offer shares will be be gold if that comes through... for example... if you have 10m shares you can buy 600k at 0.3, if the GTW projects took us to a conservative 1p, thats £4,200 instant profit. Even at 0.6 pre palacing price thats £1800 profit.
Cobra trust me i have my issues with this and some things can't be defended. But i do think to some extent people are looking in the wrong places to find the root of the problem, and a lot of this is driven by the share price and the impact that it has.... if nothing else had changed, but since the agm the powers that be decided that they can play on speculation of a deal again, pump it up to 2p and raise at 1.5p, how differently would people feel?
Cobra... just being a realist... I am looking at this from the point of view of building a business and not the point of view of making me rich as quick as possible.
If you are in project management you should know all about project lifecycle. Through Concept, research, design, development.. there's a lot of upfront cost with no income... That's still where we are i'm afraid.. we all want to see it move to the next phase, but we are not there yet.
You cannot compare disclosures of a plc with costing of a project that might be provided to a project manager. NUOG is no different to any other plc.. It reports in line with its requirements, no more or no less
Yes where the money is been spent for me is the wrong question, because we can make assumptions that little is spent on GHs, we can work out what has been spent on running the plc and we can work out how much might have gone to MFDevCo if we so wish... it shouldn't be a suprise we all invested having the ability to make assumptions on this from the accounts.
For me the questions should be....
why are they choosing to raise money the way they are?
why was the open offer not with the placing?
why in 2018 did we see a big pump and place vs now a large drop and place?
why did they set up the 2 mfdevco companies the day before the 2018 placing?
why did they sit and watch the share price drop day by day and leave it to the last minute and place at the lows the day of the interims?
why did the issue Marnavi LOI news and a positive chairman's statement, but seemingly aleready valueing it at 0.3p rather than giving the market a chance?
why is there no bod investment in the company?
why is it taking so long to close any deals?
Sharetag - first of all.... you can't blame individuals for ramping up to 1.8.... clearly it has no impact evidenced by the share price now....
Secondly read the accounts if you want to know where the money has gone. There's a fresh set of interims published.
Its not a simple as saying x million has been spent i want to see an itemised breakdown. All the inititiatives MDFevCo are working on require research, design, firstly in the concept, secondly in individual project due diligence. A lot of that is man hours, you will not see tangible output. And there is always going to be a cost of the plc.... whether you like the directors or not... name me a company out there that work for shareholders for free, and then lawyers, auditors, listing fees, ..... it adds up and its not cheap.
They have raised about £5m in the post Enegi days (I have written off the Enegi days).... the simple fact is it is too early to judge whether shareholders will get value for money for that because they are still in the development phase. If that money keeps growing and nothing happens then the case is only heading one way.... but if they start delivering projects creating value in MFDevCo, then that is really not a lot of money... lets say this gets to £20m MCAP, then grows to £100m, which is not impossible if they start delivering what they have promised. Does that seem like an unreasonable outlay for that return? The fact is this is still in development phase whether we like it or not.
I'm sorry but whether you like it or not I do not think that is a great deal of money for where they are with this and what we want them to achieve and the size of returns we are all looking for from this. We can debate how much of that has gone to the Minty's and how much of that goes into the business until the end of time.....We can't all buy in and expect them to build a multi million pound business on a few thousand quid. It is time consuming and challenging to build something from the ground and something unique. There are companies out there that have spent an awful lot more on an awful lot less. We have multiple opportunites for that money not just one, because they are building a company and a strategy and a model, not just tring to advance one asset where you can see more step change progress. Would you rather see £10m quid spent on an exploration drill and come up a duster....
I think asking where the money has been spent is the wrong question....
Is this a joke....?
renroc.... as already posted... the answer is in the RNS.... why do people continue to ignore what's in black and white
Graham Scotton, Executive Chairman of Nu-Oil, commented, "The Company's efforts to progress its activities requires funding. The Company has sought to undertake a placing of a lower quantum to minimise dilution to shareholders, who will also be able to participate shortly on the same terms through the Open Offer as requested by shareholders at the AGM.
The speed of progress made by MFDevCo with respect to gas to wire opportunities gives me confidence in its activities. The funds raised through the Placing should, in time, be supplemented by funds hopefully raised from the Open Offer and our cash requirements will potentially be reduced by the recently proposed funding arrangements of MFDevCo."
Cobra.... a couple of things i'll address there before i get my head down at work....
There is a very wide mark between assesing an opportunity in terms of our projects and the potential to create value and the way the market controls a share price. Where is the theory behind a share price valuation of 0.3, other than the broker said i want it at 0.3 so they can make as much money as possible? The fact is, MFDevCo is moving forward and have made demonstrable progress since our share price was 1p.
Where is this change in the equation..... we held 50% of MFDevCo when it was set up and will still have 50% now. What NUOG is losing is some of it's dependancy to fund MFDeVCo costs, which is a good thing.
The whole minty out campaign... i'm not sure a lot of people fully understand that.... so let me give you my take..
I'll leave to your opinion on twitter
Yes Roy amongst others were very vocal on that from a long way out before the AGM.... myself and a lot of other LTHs at the time felt that the best course of action was to allow Minty to continue, deliver a project, go out as the hero on his terms, as it was most likely to create support for the share price to keep him on side. The reason this stance was changed was because there was increasing concern that the reason Minty wanted to hold on a bit longer was to manufacture a larger piece of the pie for himself, which is why the stance of many on this changed and resulted in a number of votes against minty. I believe a lot of the noise for Minty out was for the wrong reasons, and much of this was simply out of protest. There is a big argument to say the low share price is partly down to that vote, so to say those individuals calling for minty exit which in my mind were for the wrong reasons and has probably contributed to the downfall in share price were right is naive. Crediting this people and anyone calling a drop is glorifying everything that is wrong with our financial markets.
But Cobra.... a share price is temporary, and the current share price is reflective of the fact that the broker offered to screw us over at 0.3 and the company for what ever reason accepted it. It is not reflective of the potential value in MFDevCo. This market is a harsh place controlled by brokers and market makers, and we have seen the harshest example of where the company have been held to ransom by the market, admittedly as a by product of their lack of ability to deliver anything, and I am pretty sure that one individual is the driving force behind our company accepting this shafting.
Just because you had a bad experience with a twitter group it doesn't mean they are bad news. I agree with the incident you are referring to, but theres plenty of coordinated effort to create negatviity, so shareholders can be forgiven to wanting to stick up for their investment. Most of the twitter groups are used becasue people are fed up with LSE.
There is no doubt that the whole thing has been badly handled.
The suggestion of the open offer, I am sure when this was devised at the AGM, was under the expectation that material news would come before or even with a placing and that that price might be considered to have been somewhere north of the price at the time of the AGM. That would benefit shareholders as the market price would more likely be above the placing price.
But under these circumstances the open offer doesn't really fit what it is intended to do. Shares have already been bought sub 0.3, and anyone that wants to can buy at that price now. I don't know why the open offer didn't come with the placing.... perhaps they are holding it back for a reason, if you look at open offers they genuinely come at a time of good news or high sentiment so that shareholders are getting a slighly better deal. Potentially they realised the price would drop and there would be no benefit, so perhaps they are holding it back until after news. I would suggest this is the only way forward now. But then you ask why give away 80 odd million shares and crash it to 0.3 in the first place, unless the need for the cash was super urgent. It could just be an admin issue that they were not ready with a circular, but its not as if they havn't had long enough to prepare it.
Graham Scotton, Executive Chairman of Nu-Oil, commented, "The Company's efforts to progress its activities requires funding. The Company has sought to undertake a placing of a lower quantum to minimise dilution to shareholders..."
Here is Graham, comment in the placing RNS, telling you that they raised as little as they possibly could whilst satisfying their need for cash to limit dillution. Admit they could have spelt it out a bit better in plain English, and minimising dillution was never going to be achieved a placing at 0.3, but there is your explaination of the amount.
Yet people are still asking why they raised so little and suggesting it is because that's all that they could raise so it means the end is near. I mean if you were the broker, and you were getting the chance to offer cash at nearly 50% discount, you probably would want to offer as much as you could. But no lets keep listening to people saying this is going tits up.....
What is this obsession with twitter groups.....? I can say there is as much debate and consideration of the negative side in the twitter groups that I am in. There is no conspiracy here, we are all pissed of with the company for giving a slice away dirt cheap and devaluing our investment. The positive spin is because Nothing has changed with MFDevCo. We’ve always had 50% from day one nothing has changed there, the potential for building a fast, high growth company is real. There is clearly an urgency to complete a deal, and we know that currently they are working on seed finance and an SPV, which is likely to be quickly followed by project finance, and a signed deal with an upfront payment to MFDevCo.
Yes we have been completely let down with the share price and the shafting of such a discount placing, but, that can be undone quickly and if those funds were absolutely necessary which it’s easy to assume they were because of the cash balance in the past accounts, then we are just going to have to suck it up.
Unfortunately aim reverts to type in this circumstance and looks beyond all the text in the Marbavi RNSs and the chairman’s statement and all it sees is 0.3p in the placing.
I do agree, certain members of the company have zero regard for shareholders, only their own interests. But at the end of the day they need MFDevCo to be a success. All this talk about entitlement to profits.... it’s a 50% JV we will retain 50% of any value. In terms of surplus revenues this is likely to turn profitable quickly. In terms of appropriation of profits RMRI are unable to take a distribution without NUOG taking the same. Any dividend has to be declared and paid on a equal per share basis. In the interim, there are other means of surplus cash being passed up to NUOG. But right now that is over thinking things, we need to seen value being created in MFDevCo.
The company are not going bust any suggestion is scaremongering.....
As noted in the Marnavi RNS they seek immediate seed financing reducing Nu oils working capital requirements. They also will get an upfront payment on signing a deal. The small raise should be seen as an indication of the near termness of this happening, as infuriating as it is them alowing this to happen at such a disgusting price.
Nuog own 50% of MFDevCo we have as much right to it as RMRI.
Personally I would be angry to see the bod buying now... you can't be a complicit Director in devaluing a share whether that is by neglect, by design or by accident, and then expect to take advantage of that drop, well unless you were already buying at much higher and have been buying the drop and doing all you can to support the price along the way maybe. That would be no different to anyone bashing the share for a cheaper entry. Maybe Graham aside as he is new in the business.
Don't forget there are other directors share options at 0.6 that have not been excercised so there's 100% gain in this just to get to that price.
Continued....
Thursdays news – This was a very positive development, some people saw it as dilution of NUOG via MFDevCo interest in the GTW initiative we have been sold, but on further understanding it is clear that additional income streams with upfront payments and management fees to NOUG. I think the comment about seed funding being “imminent” and “MFDevCo will be able to cover working capital requirements while the SPV is being established” reducing NUOGs working capital needs is naughty. This was a very deliberate suggestion that they can get the first project over the line without NUOG raising again. It is also suspicious that they don’t seem to be forthcoming with news when PIs want the share price supported, but when they want to raise funds they can find a LOI.
Finally, those having a dig at people that have been sharing research and thoughts on here, those LTHs are at a significant loss and I know many have been buying more shares whilst giving their positive outlook.
So in summary – I still think that MFDevCo holds the key to unlock value to a very profitable business over the years to come. But this has come at great cost to us. The mismanagement of the company on our behalf is clear to see. I do think there will be a turning point. The realities of the AIM market have hit us hard. I believe there is something of real value here, and forces beyond our control are trying to take it away from us for their benefit.
First post since the shock of Friday, been largely ignoring this over the weekend
The first thing I will say, is I stick by everything I have said about MFDevCo as a fantastic prospect with MFs and GTW and other initiatives. I do believe MFDevCo is in a fantastic position to build a successful upstream oil and gas business and the solutions and opportunities they can deliver I believe will start to come to fruition. We have all known the barrier between MFDevCo and NUOG creates risk to us, but I did not expect this to get worse before it gets better
Secondly, I can’t express how disappointed I am in how they have let shareholders down. They had a real opportunity here having created a very attractive investment opportunity to buck the trend with AIM and build momentum and appreciation for shareholders. Despite their lack of a material deal, I believe they have more than enough to be selling the investment idea. They keep telling us how positive the future prospect is, but they keep giving it away dirt cheap, well our share of it anyway
Amount of the placing – there are two views here 1) Is that this is as much as they were able to raise 2) is that they raised as little as possible to limit dilution. I do strongly believe the second is true. I also am suspicious that it is deliberately a small amount to create maximum devaluation of the share price for as little dilution as possible. At the end of the day, whether conversion of debt or further reward options or incentive schemes, the directors or RMRI perhaps via acquisition of the other half of MFDevCo, will all benefit more from less dilution and a lower share price.
Price of the placing – I mean what else is there to say apart from what a joke. Why give away something you are expecting to have high value in the future for so little. I find it impossible to believe that they would not be able to achieve something better than that via private placing or other means. They have a very attractive business prospect, but they choose to take the easy option of lining bucket shops pockets rather than a value adding investment.
I do believe there has been gross misconduct all across the market with the broker, and individuals connected to the company, someone has shorted this down since the AGM, the company have offered very little or no defence to this. The way this has unfolded it almost looks like a deliberate attempt to cause maximum devaluation of the share price.
Just to rationalise that.....
Since the Aibel investment, which is really when i see as MFDevCo really starting to be viable, NUOG have raised £5.8m. This is for NUOG, so GHs, MFDevCo, running the plc.
How many projects do we think MFDevCO are assessing and potentially looking to deliver for that £5.8m? From latest communications it's a "pipeline of projects"... what have they achieved with that £5.8m that has got Siemens involved, Aker involved, got Graham involved?
Comments about how much has been spent and where.... well forget the Enegi days start from Aibel. £5.8m is not a very large sum of money to deliver what we are all expecting here. There are companies spending multiples of that on single assets that are high risk and have a low probability of delivering a return. The consortium approach getting others to commit resources has made this possible. Yes they have diluted holders, but that's part of the game I'm afraid. So if they deliver GTW projects, larger MFs projects, if they get 2/3 projects delivered this year, does that sound too bad for £5.8m invested since Oct-16...?
What's put everyone out of place is Minty said it will take X number of months, it's taking X x Y number of months, people are over invested financially and emotionally and are judging it by those missed deadlines rather than what is realistic and acceptable for an investment in this space. If anyone thinks they can do it cheaper and quicker, I'd like to see you try.