aeo and altman z score30 Nov 2014 18:31
The Altman Z - Score: from investopedia with additions:
How do you know when a company is at risk of corporate collapse? To detect any signs of looming bankruptcy, investors calculate and analyze all kinds of financial ratios: working capital, profitability, debt levels and liquidity. The trouble is, each ratio is unique and tells a different story about a firm's financial health. At times they can even appear to contradict each other. Having to rely on a bunch of individual ratios, the investor may find it confusing and difficult to know when a stock is going to the wall.
In a bid to resolve this conundrum, NYU Professor Edward Altman introduced the Z-score formula in the late 1960s. Rather than search for a single best ratio, Altman built a model that distills five key performance ratios into a single score. As it turns out, the Z-score gives investors a pretty good snapshot of corporate financial health. Here we look at how to calculate the Z-score and how investors can use it to help make buy and sell decisions.
The Z-score Formula Here is the formula (for manufacturing firms), which is built out of the five weighted financial ratios:
Z-Score = 1.2A + 1.4B + 3.3C + 0.6D + 1.0E
Where:
A = Working Capital/Total Assets B = Retained Earnings/Total Assets C = Earnings Before Interest & Tax/Total Assets D = Market Value of Equity/Total Liabilities E = Sales/Total Assets
Strictly speaking, the lower the score, the higher the odds are that a company is headed for bankruptcy. A Z-score of lower than 1.8, in particular, indicates that the company is heading for bankruptcy. Companies with scores above 3 are unlikely to enter bankruptcy. Scores in between 1.8 and 3 lie in a grey area.
Aeo has a z score of 4.38 so clearly in the safe zone according to the z score.
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