cre in iii15 Sep 2015 20:11
Can growth in digital marketing buck wider risks affecting the business cycle? According to eMarketer, digital increased from 15% of UK marketing spend in 2007, to 47% in 2014, and most marketing services firms report their strongest growth in this segment. So it's initially odd how FTSE Small Cap-listed Creston (CRE), which in recent years derived just over half its revenues from digital and online, saw its earnings slip from 2013 (see table) and is not yet expected to regain such earning power. This is explained partly by investment for growth and client budget volatility early in the 2013/14 financial year, which admittedly points to downside risk should the global economy worsen. In its last financial year to end-March, 66% of group revenue derived from the UK, 19% from continental Europe and 15% rest-of-world. Digital and online revenues grew 7% to represent 55% of the total.
Early stage of a five-year development plan
More positively, and why Creston merits watching, it is one year into a five-year strategy involving a new brand - "Creston Unlimited", launched last November - bringing together a range of digital technology-based, marketing services to blue-chip global clients. Essentially, the aim is a fuller service offering with international capability, an interesting growth prospect for a circa £90 million company - it's big enough operationally to pitch at multinationals, while small enough financially for the gains to impact value.
Mind the cheer-lead factor, but Creston's chief executive cites: "a real feeling of momentum and energy across our group...we are encouraged by the early successes in our new strategy which gives us a strong platform to deliver value to shareholders over the medium term." His words coincide with an 8% rise in the total dividend to 4.2p a share, and forecasts imply a prospective yield of 3%. While it's not exactly a prop, a reduction in earnings cover from nearly seven times implies the board is more confident about Creston's earnings and cash profile. (Mind how numbers in the Company REFS table along with other databases, reflect the actual timing of dividend payments.)