Member Info for Shamtown

Yeah I think I'll wait for the results before buying now. I also don't like how much they are taking out of the company in share based payments, given the way the SP has performed over the last two years or so. How much will they award themselves when the SP goes up? And the lack of RNS'd contract wins provides little incentive for short to medium term traders which is needed to provide liquidity. It would appear that the management is running this company for their own benefit and not worrying about share holders at all, hence no RNS contract wins or regular interviews. I'd worry that without liquidity and the chance of poor results this could drop hard, especially if another large seller appears.

I was going to buy in today but I don't know how I feel about today's news. If everything was going well, why change the CFO or why would a CFO of a successful growth company step down and miss out on all their options down the line. The CEO did mention that the available tenders may be fewer as elections get closer, but I still thought the overall move to digitisation would bring sufficient revenue and the reduction in staff would provide profit for this period, but I'm a bit dubious now.

I believe the "net" signifies that the reservoir is pressurised which makes extraction straight forward. If it was neutral or lower then they would need to pressurise it by pumping down fluids to increase the upward flow, similar to fracking.

Hi Volmer, I don't think destiny pharma is a good comparison as they were years away from revenue at their last fund raise and clinical trials are very expensive and have high risk of failure, so it's no surprise that a large discount would be needed in such a case. It's chalk and cheese. Ondo is already making revenue, not that far off cash flow positive and is far more slimline in terms of overheads than an early stage pharma company going through clinical trials. Additionally, they are an early growth stock with existing large scale contracts from blue-chip clients that have essentially validated their business. Their revenue model is very attractive and provides very high margins over the medium to long term in a huge global addressable market that focuses on cash rich clients who can pay a year in advance. They also have global patent protection that give them an invaluable and unassailable moat, thus lowering competition risk and thus risk of investment, therefore a large discount in a fund raise would be highly unlikely as many others would take it up, such as Gervais Heddle, who has previously said on TG that he would cornerstone a raise if needed, although he wasn't contacted for this raise by Dowgate, which he has stated on TG also. The fact that he wasn't contacted for this raise would indicate that they had already achieved the targeted amount and his participation was deemed unnecessary. He certainly would have taken part in this raise and this the amount would have been higher of required.

I think it's important to note some other financial metrics in the interim results that would suggest a healthier cash balance that just their £500k at the time. They also had 800k of stock, £1.3m of receivables and £1m of deferred income. This would suggest that they were about to ship a large order, probably to the two US trials, and then that would allow them to count the deferred income into their revenue, as they already hold this cash from prepayment but can't count it until the client has received the units as per the contract. Furth receivables indicate that they also have revenue generating contracts ongoing that should bring in £1.3m in the next 6months. This is on top of the almost ~£200k monthly recurring revenue that is growing every month. Overall I believe that they are much closer to cash flow positive than you may think and I highly doubt that another dilutive raise will be necessary as they have indicated that a loan facility may be considered, which would make sense once their rollouts with nationwide and länsförsäkringar get under way their journey to cash flow positive will basically be confirmed as a certainty. Additionally, the upcoming announcement of Ofwat funding in Q1 may bring in a windfall of cash for Ondo that would essentially pay for a minimum of 5years upfront for a batch of leakbots for the Portsmouth area.

I think the management wants minimal dilution, Craig said this in the results presentation. £5m would be overkill. My guess is that they thought they would have rolled out big orders for the Länsförsäkringar deal during the summer and that's why they only raised £815k before. That didn't transpire as Länsförsäkringar wanted to incorporate leakbot installation functionality into their own app for greater customer marketing access. I would presume that Ondo leveraged this requested delay to agree on a considerable minium first batch order that is prepaid as part of the updated 5yr contract RNS in July 10th. So they now should have greater certainty of short term prepaid income and thus only need £1m to see them through for the foreseeable, if not indefinitely as many of their leakbots are now coming onto year2 where the margin is ~80%. I also think that if they need to top up their cash again next year, it will be non-dilutive via an expanded lone note agreement with homeserve, but as the SP improves, warrants should provide additional cash, so another fund raise may not be necessary. As for Dowgate, very fishy bunch imo.

Their cash position is currently very healthy at £6.5m end of September. Expecting first production within days and £1.5m monthly pre tax profit by February for just one well (see below quote). Their plan to expand out the field's production with more well funding from cash generated from sales will see the SP do multiples from here over the short to medium term.

"The well has the potential to deliver in the region of 900 bopd net production to Beacon. At those flow rates, the Company would expect to deliver operating cash flows in excess of US$1.5 million per month (assuming $80/bbl Brent)."

Whoever it was that bought that large trade yesterday it's a positive for the company. If it was an existing shareholder then the fact that they bought in one go would signify their urgency to get in prior to news as usually a broker would build a position relative to daily volume. Likewise if it was a short closing as that shows that sentiment has changed. Very close to news dropping now and interest has spiked a little bit still very much under the radar of most. Not for long though.

An important point to also consider is that the field already produces lightweight oil which is the most valuable as it requires less refining than heavy oil and contains more valuable hydrocarbons than super lightweight oil. Once production is confirmed for Schwarzbach2 well, it will significantly reduce the investment risk as the combination of operating in a 1st world country with competent engineering and manufacturing, little to no corruption, no extreme weather or safety concerns and producing high quality oil will provide an attractive investment case for larger investors and funds to enter in the coming weeks/months.

From 13th Nov RNS:

"This segment is still producing light oil (37-38o API) from the SCHB-1a well through the Schwarzbach Production facility."

An important point to also consider is that the field already produces lightweight oil which is the most valuable as it requires less refining than heavy oil (

Re: Cash position.

From the interims:

"As at 28 September 2023, the Group had cash resources excluding 'restricted cash' of approximately US$6.5 million."

Restricted cash is over 2m. That's why I stated 8m cash, as they are currently generating some income via Rhein Petroleum which generated 300k in the 6 months to September 30.

Regarding their debt, it is a non-current liability from major shareholders that doesn't have to be paid pay for some years, so I don't think that's currently an issue to worry about when production is about to ramo up considerably in a very low risk country that is hungry for indigenous energy resources now that that can't buy from Russia and are paying high prices for US and Qatari LNG. The upgraded resource estimates are huge and that's just for a small part of the field which that have licenses to develop further. All inshore too which reduces costs dramatically and fully owned.

All fundamentals are bullish. Company has plenty of cash, over £8mn, which is 40% of MCap. First production if 250bopd is imminent and ramp up to 900bopd will provide positive cash flows of £1.5mn per month. All coming from an increased reserves of up to 10.2millions barrels. Using the below quote from the interims where just extracting 900bopd at a Brent price of $80/bbl, that provides a maximum best case life span of 370months of $1.5m cash positive income, totaling > $566m pre tax profit for this one field. Even using the lowest reserve estimates, it results in a lifetime profit of $262m across 174months.

"The well has the potential to deliver in the region of 900 bopd net production to Beacon. At those flow rates, the Company would expect to deliver operating cash flows in excess of US$1.5 million per month (assuming $80/bbl Brent)."

How is that baloney WN? It's literally a quote from the RNS! Are you trying to accuse me of lying or making it up? Production will begin once the rod pump is installed, which takes about two weeks to do. We received notification of this on the 13th, it's now the 23rd.

From the last RNS:

"Commercial production is expected in the second half of November aided by the rod pump which has the capacity deliver up to a maximum rate of 250 barrels of oil per day ("bopd")."

The tweet says "meeting clients old and new". They can hardly post who the new client is on Twitter. We'll have to wait for the contract RNS shortly. Craig did say that the G4S trial was with a large Danish insurance company that they had not yet signed up. Maybe the G4S trail is a case if two birds, one stone!

Think the majority of people see the bigger picture here and the scale of potential revenues about to be generated l, the likes of which just don't exist on the LSE. Global patent protection on detecting leaks via temperature differential means no one can compete with Ondo going forward. I also see that my 20,000 buy earlier at 25.16 is showing as a sell, typical!

Hi Trader, yes you're right, nationwide do already offer multiple smart home solutions like Ting for detecting electrical faults, but in regard to leak detection, I think you'll find that the links you posted for company called notion incorporate a moisture sensor into their device that requires the end user to put multiple such devices in areas where leak may occur, such as under the sink, another under the dishwasher, another under the washing machine, etc. I believe Craig has previous addressed these devices on numerous occasions as being something that the insurance industry in America have tested and seen no affect on water escape related insurance claims and provided no discernable cost saving. They also don't cover the entirety of the dwelling's plumbing in the way leakbot does, as it can detect leaks even if they're underfloor or inside walls, which is far more beneficial to an insurer.

Cheers Harry. Looks like nationwide have already published a page on their website regarding leakbot but without mentioning it by name as of yet. It states that a discount will be provided to customers who take a smart home device to prevent water damage but only if the customer installs the device within 55 days. This is a good detail to include from ONDO's perspective as it will incentivise basically 100% of Leakbot end-users to register their device to generate more of those tasty recurring monthly revs!

https://www.nationwide.com/personal/insurance/homeowners/smart-home/

Another bonus point from today was finding out that nationwide will be launching a PR marketing drive for the leakbot rollout. It's just dawned on me how significant that is. We have a fortune 100 company partner who is about to unveil a marketing campaign on our behalf. And one thing about Americans is they know how to sell! This will have far reaching positive consequences for Ondo that will bring leakbot to the attention more people, insurance companies and potential US investors than Ondo could have ever achieved on their own.

That's an excellent point jabberba. It could far surpass 40% penetration with a fully integrated leakbot functionality into their app, as Länsförsäkringar sound like they really want their app download as much as possible and pushing customers to install a free leakbot with the added incentive of a discount to the policies will drive the number of downloads they need. They've obviously spent a lot of time developing their app with no downloads, so I expect a big marketing drive from them soon regarding leakbots for the purpose of enhancing their app downloads and thus providing better direct marketing for other insurance, financial and banking services to their home insurance customers.

Jigger, you might attain some credibility if you were truthful in reporting what was actually said in today's presentation. The Länsförsäkringar rollout is already live in 4 regions, including the largest region in Sweden, Stockholm where they currently offer leakbot to all new and existing customers for free and additional 5% discount on their policies. The remaining 19 regions will begin their rollout together en masse in January as Craig said today.

Nothing will delay the nationwide roll out as the integration is already completed and we're just awaiting Nationwide's PR push for leakbot to be dropped soon. Craig said that the rollout for the first state for nationwide will also be January. Where are you getting Q2 from???

In terms of funding, it would appear from Craig's answer that he prefers non dilutive funding options, which could likely entail an expansion of the homeserve loan. If not that then Gervais Heddle has already stated on telegram that he is willing to cornerstone any funding required, and we all remember what happened to the SP on the day he last did that, we finished up 35%!