Member Info for shamI89

If shares become worthless then they have hit a jackpot as they dont have to return anything.

Analogy that intu would be closed due to administration is false, shopping centres would remain open and administrators would run day to day activities until new buyers are found.Debenhams woule be a good example to look at, funnily only shareholders pay the price , management gets to keep their jobs , creditors get their money back.

Fair enough if administration was not announced then buying this in the hope of a recovery would make sense but buying now is more than pure gambling and in this case you are gauranteed to lose money .Alternative scenario would be debt for equity swap and that would wipe out investors as well although I dont think lenders would go down that route.

Dont think intu has too many options as it was struggling to get rent off its tenants and debt pile kept on mounting up.These negotiations were going on for months if not years .Having said that if company is placed into administration crediyors would be first in line to get money after disposals while shareholders would be last.

That people are still buying it after this rns, administration is looming and that means shareholders would lose everything.

Production is improving? I would like to some of stuff that you are on , production has nearly halved.Water contact was 25% in the 7a well in September 2019 and last month we were told that it shot up to 47% percent due to which it was shut in. Amazingly that 10m water bearing column that was observed in that well has also been identified in current producing well but it is not affecting it at the mintue now. If their previous chairman stayed on things would be looking better but right now current management lacks depth and knowledge.

You have forgotten to include 250 million debt and out of 150 millions cash they need 75 millions for capex expenditures.So actual available cash is about 70/75 millions.

Tomorrow it would be trading below 6 or around 5.50.

Go through RNS on 27 April, 10m high water bearing column that affected closed well is also present in second well although it is distant. No further update has been given, shorts have increased and share price keeps on falling. If only producing well encounters same problem then that would be disastrous for company.I reckon market knows something as this company has failed to keep up with rising oil price.

That we dont, in one of their RNS they did mention financial restructuring, so may be placing or rights issue.

Financial health of company, currently company has about 75 millions , going forward it would to drill another well to increase production.Hopefully we will get their production cost in this update and that would clarify things.

People who decide to take part in placing would get 4 shares for every 7 shares held and price at that time was 150, so if they decide to take part in placing then they would pay 1350 for 11 shares, average price works out to be 122!

I reckon finish between 96 and 100.Market had plenty of time to digest that placing and I was surprised that it did not retrace back to 75 when placing was around. However lets see what happens.

At the end of trading session today 90 or 100?

I was surprised that it did not hit 75, when placing was announced earlier this month.Dont expect to see it hitting it that level this time, so my guess is that it might trace back to mid 80s but on the flip side it can move towards mis 100s.

If shorters have closed their shorts then good for us, but in case if they have not then they would need to buy back these shares to close their shorts and that bodes well for us.I was surprised that they increased their shorts, their plan was simple open a short position dump loads of shares in market , which would cause an inevitable drop in illiquid share like this, when you see a rise dump some more, panicking investors would compound this drop and then close your shorts by buying back cheap shares.

Shorters need to close their shorts and tide seems to have turned around.

Digging deep through previous years results , I have found that losses stemmed from costs asspciated with egypt assets purchase and tax due from production, finance costs were 5.5 millions last year. Add drilling compaign costs to that and a clear picture emerges.Gary Newman has covered this company on *************.They acquired Egypt assets for 136 millions and in their last annual reports they indicate that they have spent 180 millions on egyptian assets so if 44 millions must have been paid in terms of costs associated with assets purchase and tax due from production, 5.5 millions were related to finance costs.Company wanted to increase production and initisted drilling and workover compaign in egypt and that must have cost them 20/30 millions.In last financial report company indicated that their total assets were worth about 600 millions and even if we apply 50% discount to that then 300 millions is five times today's market capital.I suspect operating costs in egypt are not as bad as some are making out to be and almost 40/45% production came from these assets and despite that total production costs were 10 dollars per barrel.

Company lost money in Egypt lost year due to drilling compaign in Egypt as plan is to explore and bring new wells into production so that overall production could be expanded . So depending on your view you can take it as an investment.Overall production cost is 10 dollars per barrel according to last set of results and Egypt 2c resources are estimated to be 23.3 mmbb for which company paid 136 millions in 2019 and undertook drilling programe to increase number of producing wells. It still has cash reserves of 58 millions .Not to mention of licenses and concrssions in Israel.Even if Egypt assets are worthless or uneconomical as some people are suggesting , 13 millions in cash and vitamese assets , plus explration licenses and concessions are worth much more than current market capital.Drilling compaign in Egypt was going to cost company money but that is an investment every producer makes at yhe start of cycle.

I think they notify market three days after closure/opening of short positions , so I am assuming that they went short earlier than reported date.But these lot dont tend to have short positions for a long time.