focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Well, Simon Thompson thinks the cash is still £123.3 even after the Twelve Bio/Ensoma £7.2m financing.
SP up today following his perennial recommendation:
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/02/09/bargain-shares-2023/
Berenberg target up from 543.0p to 552.0p :
https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/berenberg-slightly-raises-target-price-on-yellow-cake-following-timely-acquisition--12250430.html
No mention in Proactive or ********** suggests this is still under the radar for many. Bloomberg have picked it up though (under registration) :
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-03/uranium-investor-s-pockets-are-glowing-the-london-rush
I think the cash reduction from November £130.0m to December £123.4m will have been due to the further Disc investment (30 Dec RNS). If that's right then the 5th Jan Ensoma financing ($9m = £7.3m) is yet to be deducted, which will leave ~£116m = 92p/share. (Do others agree?)
Yes, the market is certainly likely to increase, but exactly how much bigger are you calculating it will get?
From the Sunrise October 2022 presentation: "Current market for pozzolans in Nevada and California is approx. 1.4 million tons." (and CS is only targeted at a fraction of that region).
California's total cement production is around 10Mtpa, Nevada much less. Perhaps up to 20% could be replaced by pozzolan, but there are other competing supplementary cementitious materials.
No December NAV yet? A monthly NAV that's a month out of date is not much use to anyone.
Contrast with IBT - they update theirs DAILY on their homepage:
https://ibtplc.com
Even better, HL picks it up and charts it:
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/international-biotechnology-trst-ord-25p
Too much to ask? Weekly maybe? (BTW I'm not a day-trader - holder since 2019.)
Appeal denied:
https://www.kerncounty.com/Home/Components/News/News/1089/34810
The elephant in the room that no one here seems interested in. Maybe someone should ask about it at the AGM: if Gem Hill achieves its target of 500ktpa, will that leave any market for CS? On the positive side, Hazen looks like a better bet.
I first flagged this up on 3rd September, and was a bit surprised that most people didn't seem at all concerned about it. Gem Hill Quarry did get approved on Thursday, but this was already almost a foregone conclusion last weekend when documents, including a draft approval, appeared here:
https://kernplanning.com/hearings/planning-commission/
- see under the 2022 "Agenda" & "Staff Report" tabs. In theory it can be appealed against, but that doesn't look likely IMO. So I was truly astonished to see the SP rising during the week as it has. Anyway, once again I'm deliberately posting on a Saturday, to give you the rest of the weekend to bury this under the usual... ;-)
The hearing is recorded on video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiJ1cVcsOPA
It's rather long, but I did find it quite interesting to see how they do these things over there. The Gem Hill Quarry segment is from 12:00 to 1:28:02.
It includes a presentation from CalPortland, and at ~39:15 we deduce that CalPortland's own requirement is 300ktpa. However, the mine is designed for 500ktpa (15Mt over 30 years, see video at 26:45). The difference is accounted for by supply to "other users" (video 27:30) though it isn't exactly spelt out who/what this is referring to. Also note the "Distance matters" bullet point at 40:25.
This 500ktpa equates to 35% of the current total California+Nevada pozzolan market (which is 1.4Mtpa according to the Sunrise company presentation, page 6). The pozzolan market is increasing of course, but I'm struggling to see how it can absorb another 500ktpa from CS.
We've been told that the main CS target locations are Las Vegas and Los Angeles plus surrounding districts. Gem Hill is a similar distance from Vegas, but around 200 miles closer to LA. My guess is that this will reduce CS to being mainly perlite, with some by-product pozzolan sold at a limited profit because of the transport costs. Hazen is much better situated, but its development is beyond my AIM investment time horizon.
So DYOR and draw your own conclusions, but sadly I'm out. It's a pity, because had this GH decision gone the other way I'd have been buying in heavily. But I've been wanting to quit AIM investing for some time now, having done quite well elsewhere (SNG in 2020). With AIM companies you really have to research them continuously to pick up stuff like this, and I no longer want to spend that much time on it.
GLA.
Eagle 22Q2 results just out:
http://ir.eaglematerials.com/news-releases/news-release-details/eagle-materials-reports-record-second-quarter-results-0
Cement price now $132.50/t, up 12% from $117.78/t in 21Q2.
Acacia now > 25% :
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ARIX/holdings-in-company-dw0reheotytrmlm.html
Hi Misterh & skid35, do you have a figure for how many Imara shares Arix currently holds?
It's continuing to rise:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/IMRA:NASDAQ?window=5D
They're certainly a contender, though perhaps more for Hazen (IMO, based on their locations http://www.eaglematerials.com/locations/ ).
Their Q2 Results + Conference Call may be worth checking out a week tomorrow (26th) :
http://ir.eaglematerials.com/news-releases/news-release-details/eagle-materials-schedules-second-quarter-fiscal-2023-earnings
Other cement co results are also imminent e.g. Cemex on 27th.
Thanks, Icebank, it looks like the web page has been updated too:
https://www.sunriseresourcesplc.com/hazen-pozzolan-project
Well, at least this has provoked some debate. As 1investor has pointed out, electric vehicles can make a difference, though they need to be driverless to get the biggest saving. This is an interesting article, one of the sources for my 12 cents/ton-mile figure:
https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ArkInvest_101420_Whitepaper_BadIdeas2020.pdf
(Note it is dated October 2020 when oil was around $40.) In section IV (pages 12-14) they suggest that driverless electric trucks would bring the 12 cents down to 3 cents, which would even undercut rail! That would knock something like $20/ton off CS transport costs, which would be a massive improvement.
It looks like they have a more recent article here, if anyone is prepared to sign in for it:
https://ark-invest.com/white-papers/wp-autonomous-mobility/
Sorry about my broken location link, here's an attemped fix:
https://goo.gl/maps/eoyR425JYBtz8TBP6