focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I suspect this piece of research may not be too welcome, but it's always better to be aware of these things. I picked it up about a week ago when the Draft Environmental Impact Report was published, and have since reduced my SRES holding somewhat. Perhaps I'm not the only one to have noticed it, given the recent volume of selling, and consequent fall in SP.
https://kernplanning.com/environmental-doc/gem-hill-quarry-project/
The PDFs are quite large, so I'll summarise: CalPortland are proposing to build a pozzolan mine in Kern County, California, just a few tens of miles from their Mojave and (recently acquired) Tehachapi cement plants. This is the location:
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@34.9181644,-118.2179232,2809m
The size and longevity of the mine are very similar to our CS project. The main difference is that their pozzolan (volcanic tuff) will require drill & blast mining, with blasting approximately once a week. The DEIR is currently in a public review period, with a Public Hearing scheduled for 10 November.
Comparing with CS economically, the added cost of blasting, of the order of $1/ton, is low compared with trucking costs from CS, which would be something like 200-300 miles at ~12cents/ton-mile.
Will it get permitted? California is known to be much tougher than Nevada for permitting. About 4 miles away is Rosamond (population ~21,000) whose residents may not be too keen on weekly blasting. Also there's a groundwater requirement of 16,000 gallons/day (18 acre-feet per year), which sounds like a lot, though the impact has been deemed "less than significant". Given the amount of effort that has gone into this EIR, CalPortland must think there's a fair chance of it getting through, and of course like us they're pushing the "green" argument.
To end on a more positive note: as part of the obligatory investigation of alternatives, they were unable to locate any other comparable sources of pozzolan nearby. So if it does get rejected then they may see CS as a very attractive Plan B.
DYOR
@Losesalot: I don't agree that CS is dead, but it certainly has issues. I have some research to post tomorrow - debate tends to be more rational outside of trading hours. (Just out of curiosity, if I say it's about "GHQ", is anyone else already aware of it?)
To add to my speculations yesterday: if the Tehapachi purchase was the trigger for rekindling negotiations, then a bit of paid-for publicity to try to bolster the SP might be in order.
(Reminder: BurtonD is the TMS founder:
https://total-market-solutions.com/about/
)
@Twiggysparks: Yes, a possible source of pozzolan for the blended cement, though it's about 300 miles by road from CS to Tehachapi. We're not told where the "two related cement distribution terminals" are located - if anyone can find out, let us know!
A reminder that the CRMC negotiations stalled "in significant part due to organisational changes within the CRMC" (RNS 24 May), and my speculation is that this *might* refer to CalPortland's multiple purchases from MM.
https://www.taiheiyo-cement.co.jp/english/summary/pdf/220809_2.pdf
"
1. Overview of the Asset Acquisition
Business Assets: The Tehachapi Cement Plant (California) and two related cement distribution terminals for which CPC has had preferential negotiation rights.
Purchase price: US$350 million.
2. Purpose of the Asset Acquisition
The acquisition will enable CPC to build a supply system that can meet the growing demand for cement in the Western United States. The acquisition will also enable CPC to further reduce CO2 emissions intensity at the Tehachapi Plant, by: (i) improving plant facility management; (ii) increasing the plant’s operating rate; and (iii) further converting production to blended cement.
"
("Blended cement" = portland cement + supplementary cementitious materials e.g. pozzolan.)
As per previous posts I've been waiting for this news, and decided to add when I saw it yesterday lunchtime. It looks like my buys may have soaked up the 9.5m "Peterhouse Fee Shares" from the recent placing. I added a few more this morning & am probably done for now.
NB The possible relevance of the Tehachapi acquisition to the SRES CS project is of course just speculation on my part - DYOR & GLA.
An article discussing in some depth what the newly formed Eco Material Technologies (including Kirkland Pozzolan Mine) have been up to :
https://concreteproducts.com/index.php/2022/08/06/pozzolan-proliferation/
Thanks EyesOfBlue. It's a subscription article, but there's a couple of extracts here:
https://morethanthecurve.com/british-company-to-expand-workforce-in-plymouth-meeting/
Overdue?
And so am I, very glad you're still with us.
Yes the placement should have been no surprise. Not only the cash situation, but the appearance of a new company presentation in June, with a new Slide 5: "The Investment Case" - a bit of a giveaway!
I think 2050 is the more realistic target for net zero, and even that might be a struggle. Article yesterday:
https://www.cemnet.com/News/story/172987/why-aren-t-co2-emissions-falling-more-rapidly-in-the-cement-sector-.html
"
It is going to need a vast turnaround in performance to cut CO2 emissions by a quarter by 2030, as proposed in the Global Cement and Concrete Association’s (GCCA) Roadmap.
...
As of December 2020, the Transitional Pathways Initiative assessed that 33 cement producers in the world had targeted net zero by 2050, among them CRH, HeidelbergCement, Cemex, Dalmia Bharat, Taiheiyo Cement, Holcim and UltraTech Cement.
"
Unusually high discount to NAV - see charts here:
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/g/geiger-counter-ltd-npv
https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/14344-update-on-california-july-2022
"Looking at the local cement production base in California ... CalPortland looks set to become the frontrunner if it buys Tehachapi."
The Tehachapi cement plant is ~300 miles by road from CS. I wonder, does its change in ownership need to be resolved before we can get a deal?