Member Info for SG2025

six months on from hiring tjeerd jegen as chief executive officer, the share price of uk discount retailer b&m european value retail sa shows few signs of a turnaround.

the stock has fallen 56% in 2025, extending the previous year’s 34% drop, as the firm struggles to contend with a ****tail of rising competition, increasing wage costs and a pinch on the low-income households that have been key to its past success.

jegen’s plan is to bring the company “back to b&m basics” by lowering key food prices, offering fewer products and improving availability. he has warned that it could take up to 18 months for changes to take hold.

“we think the new ceo’s strategy is credible with the main risk being that it takes longer to come through than b&m expects,” said rbc capital markets analyst richard chamberlain.

b&m is currently valued at £1.6 billion ($2.1 billion) after shedding more than £4 billion of market capitalization over the past two years.

the appeal of the retailer’s everyday products, from food to toiletries, has been undermined by a renewed promotional push from supermarkets such as aldi and lidl, according to bloomberg intelligence senior analyst charles allen.

“b&m, which tries to be an everyday low price retailer and doesn’t really participate in promotions, is losing traction because of this,” he added.

successive years of 10% labor cost increases also meant that the flexibility of the b&m model that ensured margin stability is now broken, allen said.

another key challenge for jegen is to reconnect with the firm’s main customer base, low-income households in the uk, who suffered due to rising costs of living.

still, a majority of analysts are positive on the stock, which has ten buy, six hold recommendations and a sole sell rating.

a return to like-for-like growth and signs of stabilizing profitability could support the share price in 2026, according to bloomberg intelligence’s allen. evidence that its new strategy is resonating with customers and an appointment of a heavyweight chief financial officer would also help, he said.

goodbody analyst fintan ryan told bloomberg news that he struggles to see what could drive the shares to de-rate further, considering the sharp drop in valuation. the stock is currently valued at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of seven, only marginally above its all-time low.

“even though the earnings are volatile and under pressure, i think if markets at least get comfort on the cash generation and the prospect for cash returns, then shares can find some support,” said ryan, who also sees scope for b&m to start buybacks.

however, the analyst doesn’t rule out a downgrade in expectations if 2026 earnings come in at the low-end of estimates. he also warned that any need to raise investment to turn things around could swallow up cash that has historically been returned to investors.

“the general bad news backdrop has hit consumer sentiment and spending, so you could s

"More like it".. how?

WG shareholders have approved 30p. So why would they pay any more!! Very wishful thinking (but not practical) to still expect any higher or bid from 3rd party now... The fact that Apollo which dilligenced the business before and didn't even make any move this year at these prices speaks louder... and I have been wrong sided myself expecting a counter bid earlier, but we are past that point..

"Walleye Capital LLC reduced to zero from 1.21% on 30th of Oct, not sure how they managed to close that short as the shares were still suspended."

Shares were suspended on exchange, but can still change hands I think privately/bilaterally, over the counter - must have been off exchange transactions..

How do others feel about Action Group (3i) making a move for B&M? Makes a lot of sense to me, strategically as well as financially? Similar business and and moreover, they can bring their operational excellence to B&M and completely turn around the business, thus creating a lot of value for 3i, particularly at the current price point.

In my view, this is perfectly ripe for a takeover target.. I will be very surprised if there is no bid / speculation by end of Q1.

Good read. Pretty much aligned with Knot's various posts, but written in much more layman's language than Knot. ;). Thanks for sharing @Jasy.

Personally I prefer no ord divs but rather as much of buybacks instead as possible.. Much better longer and medium term that the company can mop back the shares cheaply as possible, while it goes through recovery and transformation.. I know some on this platform may disagree, but just my 2 cents…

Think he's made one too many already. Suggest you re-visit his posts, least from last few days.

Feels like we are going in circle or just making same arguments in the vacuum of new developments, given everything is behind curtains and will take time until we hear anything in public forum.. anyone disagrees?

LFL is calculated based on an existing stores basis - i.e. top line of of existing stores this year vs last year. It does not include new stores. New stores come under organic growth.

@Senator1, thanks for an insightful post this morning... though you are right about EBITDA margin decline, what analysts have repeatedly mentioned as another big red flag is the negative LFL, which has also driven lower profit margins (similar to Gregs for example).. All top line growth (still very marginal) has come from organic growth / new stores, but LFL has pulled margins as well growth backwards, with competitors taking away business and market share from B&M...

In my opinion, there will be some pain near term, given it will take time to implement new IT systems (even if they are readily available 3rd party) and get consumer data insights to sync with purchasing decisions, which is usually 1-2 seasons (several months) in advance. So, I think its more like 12-24 months before the business can start to show signs of turn around and get the £3-4 target. Near term, I think the shares will be range bound 150-250p (both ends depending on upcoming results), until some offshoots of recovery / turnaround start to emerge, most likely after FY results, possibly Q1/Q2 next year..

Agreed. DCF is more useful and relied upon for sectors / companies with a more stable and predictable cash flow, say for example utilities . But for a discount retailer, particularly as troubled as B&M, currently, DCF is totally useless and hardly anyone will rely upon it for all the reasons that Senator1 mentioned.

Thanks @Liberty2. Seems like it is feasible from your post.. In which case, it makes a lot of sense and for both lenders and CMCs (who I think will also likely go to court) to argue that this goes straight to SC. And it would be very difficult for FCA to argue against it in a public forum - this will become public and media will take so much potshots at FCA (not to mention HoL etc.) to just get the legal hoops done with quicker.. If this does goes to court post final scheme from lenders, I would wager for a Leapfrog Appeal, provided there are no other holes / conditions etc.

Is it all possible this all ends straight to say Supreme Court, avoiding further delays on account of moving from one court to higher in steps? I mean given the overall impact, can the government or FCA not ask SC to take this up? Not sure if there is any precedence here or this is at all possible?

I also have a plausible alternate theory.. may be government mediates between FCA and banks to settle some form of a middle path. For banks, the carrot from HMG could be no new taxes in the upcoming budget... But can't see this working for auto companies' financing arms, who also have to deal with potential future liabilities from dieselgate court ongoings...

Hopefully this article helps you calm down NiharRoy… particularly the comments… “ I shan’t comment any further on what we’ll do beyond the consultation process itself. I think at this stage that would be inappropriate.”

Lloyds Bank vows to fight car finance payouts

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/23/lloyds-bank-vows-to-fight-car-finance-payouts/

Mr Chalmers said: “Our initial view is that the proposals are disproportionate.The determination of unfairness is too broad and the redress calculation is not closely linked to harm, resulting in anomalous outcomes for customers.”

He said Lloyds plans to challenge the FCA’s plans through the regulator’s own consultation process and did not rule out the possibility of taking legal action if necessary.

Asked about the possibility of legal action, Mr Chalmers said: “We will very much be playing a role in our responses to the FCA’s consultation process ... I shan’t comment any further on what we’ll do beyond the consultation process itself. I think at this stage that would be inappropriate.”

Same reason that none of the lenders like Lloyds, Barclays, BMW financing etc. etc. have chosen not to issue a strong statement as you suggest Nihar. Guess none in the industry have the spine, or may be its more strategic that we mere mortal PIs do not understand, except have faith in the management and the industry to sort something out with FCA (compromise may be either during the redressal) or later via courts. There are a number of ways FCA can hurt CBG if it goes off as a standalone loose canon vs FCA, which is no one's interest, or is it?

As food for thought, what if the Company were to bring back Simon Arora in some capacity - may be on the board, or as Chair, or as an advisor to the CEO? How do you think the market will react to it? Given this was his baby / legacy, I am sure he wouldn't want it to flounder.. Given he's a billionaire and enjoying his wealth, so low likelihood of him being willing to take up such a role, but he may as well want to take up the challenge in a limited capacity vs his prior CEO role. I do think, this will change a lot of scepticism, least in the short term ;) to optimism....

@TheTrotsky, thanks for sharing your detailed views. You do make some good points and few I don't agree with. There is no end to this discussion and its not best use of either of our time to keep this going. So, I'll close this topic by saying a few brief points, hopefully nothing controversial:

1) You are right about accounting practices.. most of these companies use 3rd party software and large accounting teams, and errors always happen, mostly immaterial which go unreported, and rarely material like B&M's

2) In my understanding, the RNS states its not a "comprehensive third-party review", but just to find the cause of the error, so it doesn't happen again.

3) With the share purchases, the CEO has as much skin in the game as any PI shareholder. And the CEO does need to report to the Board, so internally, a new CEO will loath and take every opportunity to lay any blame at the feet of his predecessor to "clear the decks" and avoid taking any personal blame. True, but it only last for as long, in the end he needs to deliver and show progress from where he joined and not the new low to earn his rewards...

4) "I'd be very surprised if they found nothing". Great.. I like that, because to me it shows the bar is low, and if they actually do find nothing, it will even better.

5) "I think people are significantly underestimating the challenge that BME is currently facing.". On the contrary, my opinion is that market is over-estimating the challenges that B&M is facing and thats reflected in its share price. Anyhow, its just a view, I can not prove it, so no point debating it.

6) I agree with your arguments re operational challenges, competition, MOAT etc.

> The fact that the new CEO started his first presentation to reflect on Operational challenges and intention to deal with them, shows that the management has recognised it and wants to address it. The previous CEO did nothing about it for several years.. Whether they succeed or not, no one can say with certainty, but I am optimistic

> Their MOAT has always been lower price.. and they lost their MOAT under previous CEO. Hopefully they address it now as the CEO acknowledged.

> You forgot to mention Home Bargains and the Range, who are most relevant competitors. Asda, Morrisons, Poundland are as much troubled as B&M, but anyhow.

I do agree, there are lots of challenges for B&M and I do not want to in any reflect down on them. But I also do think that SP reflects them well and with the expectations/bar so low, if the management so much as steady the ship and shows some improvement, it will give good returns in near to medium term. I do not intend to hold the stock for 5-10 years to be clear.

Thanks @Chid for your response... you have proved you are not a bot (may be sophisticated AI bot, who knows ;).. But jokes aside (thanks for not pounding on my post, as some others I am sure would have done. IMO, the fact that 1) you did not read the link, as you say; 2) "backed down a tad" really from £700m demand to £100m settlement is a tad backdown? Similarly If FCA backs down from £11bn to say £2bn, will mean tad to you, but I am sure others will be pleased....; and 3) I pretty much lost any interest in reading your post thereafter.. shows me you are unwilling to engage in counter arguments or challenge your own theories (they are theories as a matter of fact after all..,). No issues, I humbly agree to disagree and move on and adopt the same strategy of ignorance like others...