Member Info for sergeiOrsu

BMO

Central Asia Metals

CAML-LSE

Rating

Outperform

Price: Mar-18

£1.70

Target

£2.40

Total Return

49%

IN Fact IN Fact

Solid 2025 Results With a Dividend Beat

Alexander Pearce • Metals & Mining - International

+44 (0)20 7246 5435

Bottom Line:

A solid finish overall with EBITDA of US$101.8M in line, although adjusted earnings missed ( US$0.24, -13%) on tax/depreciation. Positively, the 7.5p final dividend beat our estimate by 33% and implied an annualised yield of 8.8%. A US$118M impairment related to Sasa was previously flagged. Looking ahead, guidance is unchanged and CAML continues to offer some of the most attractive multiples of its peers with EV/EBITDA of ~2.1x and dividend yields of ~9%.

Key Points

2025 EBITDA in Line: CAML reported 2025 EBITDA of US$101.8M, in line with our forecast and essentially flat year-on-year. At the operational level, Kounrad EBITDA of US$97.3M was in line with our forecast while Sasa EBITDA of US$25.7M came in 5% above us, although this was largely offset by higher corporate costs. Cash costs were US$0.82/lb Cu at Kounrad (+3%) and US$0.79/lb ZnEq at Sasa (+2% vs. BMO). The company reported a loss of US$75M (or US$0.42/sh) for the year which included an impairment charge of ~ US$118M (largely related to Sasa, which was previously announced). Excluding this, FX and charges related to share based payment, we estimate adjusted earnings of US$0.24/sh, slightly lower than our forecast of US$0.26/sh on slightly higher taxes and depreciation. CAML ended the year with net cash of US$79M, up from US$41M reported at the end of June.

Final Dividend Beat: CAML declared a final dividend of 7.5p per share, 33% higher than our forecast, implying an ~8.8% annualised yield. In total, the company paid 12p in dividends in 2025, representing ~50% of its FCF (top end of 30-50% FCF policy), but incorporating the US$10M buyback (completed post year-end) this is closer to ~65%.

Guidance for 2026 Unchanged: CAML maintained its 2026 operational guidance, including 12-13kt copper (BMO 12.5kt), 18-20kt zinc (BMO 19.5Kt), and 26-28kt lead (BMO 27.3kt). Total capex guidance was also reiterated at US$14.5-17.5M (BMO US$16M)

Here is the Northern Miner link: https://www.northernminer.com/news/orsu-metals-completes-maiden-resource-on-russian-gold-project/1003806328/

Okay, the website cuts my email. Just write to Orsu corporate email available on the website and they will pass it on to me.

Dear Silverite
By way of introduction, I am Sergei Stefanovich, MD for Orsu these days. Just wanted to say hi. I am, of course, being MD and a shareholder, care what people say about Orsu. We are really refocusing the company, our G&A is 20% of what it used to be a year ago, we have a new and exciting gold project that we keep our shareholders updated on. We maximize our exploration dollars and really run the company efficiently. For all sorts of rules, I can’t say more than the company says in its press-releases. We are working towards a maiden resource and an economic assessment later this year. I expect that we will deliver a solid set of numbers in Q4 this year in terms of resource and appearing economics of the project. Exploration is going really well. Keep following us. If convinced, join the ride. Happy to take your questions on stefanovichsergei**********
Sergei