Member Info for senseman

British
For openness I copied RB my substantive posts eg my point-listed views of deal and Q&A's. He already naturally peruses both forums at crucial times so will have seen anyway also will have seen my comment re twitter posting (meant incidentally as replies had already started, for CA to promptly know PI strength of feeling, not troll, & PI replies/posts abruptly ceased after 24/36hrs which was good). So RB knows my view (and PIs generally) and has responded courteously making the fair general points that PIs never have complete information and that CA's risk assessment differs from most PIs. In response I made the fair point that much is about optics - given HUR's history of doomsday writing & figures (and now currently basing all on $80 Brent and risk profile PIs do not accept), it is asking too much for PIs to follow like sheep when CA's figures suddenly row behind HUR's. Also, that the Irrevocables do not help.

I don't know what, other that generalities, RB can have said to those who phoned. With me, whilst CA are HUR BoD, he has always made clear the distinction between what can be said, and what cannot be. Which I have respected. I have opined a phone conversation may assist and he has my phone number. So I am sure if he feels one will, he would call. That said, I am certainly not adverse to picking up the phone if I thought it would achieve anything more than those currently writing.

Last, my email communications with RB have always been on the express mutual understanding of privacy, whether CA were not HUR BoD members, or are. This has always allowed freedom of expression which occasionally has subtle benefits. That is why I will not post copy or specifics without RB's express permission. The fact that we currently hold differing views is irrelevant to this privacy understanding.

mariog - excellent donkey work
british - same in writing to ca & ker re irrevocables
the main hope i guess is causing the principals to revisit prax with evidence of huge pi disquiet and persuading prax an improved offer on the basis that 75% may not be achieved (one way or t'other) or even if it is that until 90% is achieved prax will be left with hur private including a sizeable unhappy pis as future hur private SHs refusing to accept offer - a private company's nightmare
our problem is we don't have access to all ca current thinking eg just one example - atwhose insistence were irrevocables - prax, hurr or ca?
on a relevant side note - Brent currently $78.8 - $79.4 depending where look. if we can get above $80 by april first 5 days will be a little victory - means maybe 3 mill more for offload that at $74

hence my question to british. is he seeing something we don't re voting numbers. perhaps he could reply?

british
please can you explain how you see scheme failing to get 75% if PIs even with 100% turnout (which won't occur) only have 20%?
with you all the way on sentiment

Prax deal may see toxic relationship NSTA continuing, since CEO & CFO being retained, and only Chair changing

also inbuilt to HUR reasoning and figures is that relationship with NSTA so toxic (when HUR phones, the NSTA groans), BoD knows NSTA won't be doing HUR any favours. I would hazard a fair guess that BoD and it's relationship with NSTA played significant part in limiting FSP interest generally, and to lowball offers. this is the price SHs pay for bad BoD. a new BoD would reset relationship with NSTA

part of the wind down scenario is based on uk flaring currently not being allowed beyond 2025
would mean many small oilers going bust
if chancellor shortly extends flaring constraints to uk producers (highly likely), also softens epl, then 2025 wind down necessity falls away even at $80 oil. so $80 oil could see production beyond 2025. +$80 oil would extend even further

Brent today $77.5 as gentle upward trend from $72 continues as banking squall passes
April 3-7 is the first 5 working days April which will likely determine price April offload achieves - so we have 6 days to climb to +$80 to give same as last 2 offloads. After dodging $72 bullet, this would be ok & good as China Covid reopening has still to impact.
If 3 x $80 offloads is the worse a troubled market can throw at HUR, the wrongness of citing $80 as future (and thus deal) metric will soon show. The previous 3 offloads before that were from memory +$110, +$110, +$97

I bring people back to reality
As things stand the deal will achieve 75% unless some inst invests vote against it
Basic maths

All are smart enough to read a newspaper and know that EPL change is not yet fact, and neither pure rumour, but only genuine possibility.
Pedants writing War & Peace to discredit those essentially messaging that it may occur, and if so should fairly aid HUR deal metrics,, add nothing

The game changer is not how much the EPL effects HUR. It is how HUR cites in it's argument that it is affecting saleability because of interested parties' perception of it's effect. This is simple logic stuff
If HUR cite EPL as driving down interest and thus any offer value, then any amelioration (softening) of the EPL must increase HUR's appeal to a buyer
If this is not accepted, then citing EPL as a factor limiting buyer interest and bid-value must be removed as an argument.
In short - those (including HUR) citing EPL as an interest-limiting and bid quantum-limiting factor cannot have it both ways. A square is not a circle.
I repeat - this is basic logic

It matters for people to properly understand that CA have at least till end 2024 to play with and are not under time pressure.
CA only only I think 5 companies left in it's portfolio
2 of these now have a CA exit target date of end 2024 - one being a medical company awaiting patents to add value, the other having recently been taken private so various things need occur before CA can exit.
CA needed 75% at it's continuation vote to be able to continue. ALL CA shareholders (74%) other than Saba (26%) voted to continue. Saba bought 26% specifically to force CA to wind-up at NAV value (ie. sell off in pieces asset value) exceeded SP value by large quantum).
Can't remember exact, but Saba bought CA at say 85 and are already rerisked via dividends and already sold CA asses down to around half that.
Saba's potential biggest CA earner by far is cash cow HUR. When CA can't be wound up anyway before end 2024 earliest, would be rather stupid to force CA to sell HUR earlier than that, don't you think? Rather like cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. Given the way things usually go it may be into 2025 before the other 2 smaller companies mentioned above are able to be exited by CA. If HUR were still throwing off cash at end 2024 I could easily see Saba not pressing for HUR sale and CA windup till end 2025. If HUR (hence CA hence Saba) are making serious wonga, Saba won't pull the plug

EPL significance
Logical big picture thinking would help. Rather than micro thinking. This applies to all issues.
The EPL relevance is that HUR & CA cite it as a factor diminishing HUR's value to a buyer. Not whether it actually is.
So, if it IS a factor, any softening of it increases HUR's value to a buyer. And thus should increase bid quantum
If it is NOT a factor, then it has falsely been cited as factor diminishing HUR's value to a buyer. And thus bid quantum should be higher.ie: increase

ISA
It is an issue of UK tax law FACT whether DCUs will be in ISAs or not. It is not for broker interpretation.
The issue is CRUCIAL.
HUR/Prax/CA have instant access to own tax experts. They will know the answer, and that such is crucial to PIs. HUR should have stated the PI ISA tax position. It is not sufficient to say - ask your broker. That HUR have not stated the ISA position is worrying - would they not do so if DCUs stayed within ISA wrapper as such helps their cause?
Hargreaves Lansdown have twice opined me DCU's stay within tax wrapper. But given cruciality, that is not sufficient. Given HUR have not stated the position that they must know I remain unsure. Please ask broker & post.
BRENT $75
Most financial oil analysts opine oil has, despite banking squall, now bottomed and sustained upward movement has begun.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/standard-chartered-oil-prices-likely-to-head-higher-1032191960
ESP
It has been forgotten that when in H1 2021 well 6 relied on natural flow for short period when pump switchover was needed, the natural flow rate was only marginally lower that that with ESP operating. Obvious & CRUCIAL question - if well 6 operated now on natural flow (ie if pump + backup failed), would natural flow again be only marginally lower. Oilies amongst us - please opine
EPL
According to Financial Times, gov this week may announce revision to EPL. Any EPL softening will increase HUR value & strengthen NO reasoning.
"UK government expected to offer energy companies windfall tax relief
Lower fuel prices spur hopes the levy will be reformed as sector is being encouraged to invest in new projects
Oil and gas companies have long argued hydrocarbons in the North Sea have a key role in Britain’s ‘transition’ to net zero and in providing energy security © Stuart Conway/AFP/Getty Images
UK government expected to offer energy companies windfall tax relief on twitter (opens in a new window)
UK government expected to offer energy companies windfall tax relief on facebook (opens in a new window)
UK government expected to offer energy companies windfall tax relief on linkedin (opens in a new window)
Britain’s oil and gas companies are next week expected to be offered the prospect of windfall tax relief, as prime minister Rishi Sunak looks to boost investment and improve the country’s energy security...."

Kooba - this is your problem - you always skew things, or lie, or never let them go. It's just ego with you
I have not veiled unfounded accusations at you, I have simply tried to ascertain the truth via courteous questions that several asked me to ask. And you did not answer me several times here - you answered me properly once - after repeated numbered requests. And to be accurate - I (and I presume others) do not 'acknowledge your standing), we are for the present accept what you say re your standing but retain healthy suspicion.
And truth being water off a ducks' back to me....?) Please - it's clear you don't like being held to account but do try and keep it real when you are obliged to respond politely to other posters - they are not the fools you take them for

I have state before and I restate - if the deal fails, CA will EGM removal of HUR chief execs, and replace with Albion. That is, providing that Albion still want to play ball. I know from a completely reliable independent source that the CA EGM Albion plan was wholly genuine. I told kooba this on ADBFN forum (I am 'filtered' there also now...))). So there are 3 options, rather than just 2. And if Albion do still want to play ball if CA have not peed them off too much, there are likely 2 - accept deal, or refuse deal and have BoD out and Albion in

British - bat kooba straight back.
Your are wholly correct and it is simple to understand.
Even anyone wishing the deal to go through would be mad to vote yes first time round - in refusing to state in the Q & A that the Prax offer was their final offer, he admitted it was not.
Now kooba has filtered me (he hasn't really but now he's stuck with it till a u-turn), he will turn his guns on other posters. Just have think skins and bat him back - other posters will back you up

British
Ignore broomtree. He never posts anything constructive.
Keep posting. Repetition matters and is important - few of us even as adults take things in properly first or even second or third time around. Especially on complex matters such as current. it is not boring to read and I assure you the vast majority of posters appreciate it greatly.
Repetition is even more important when there are suspect poster about - because they rely on their own repetition knowing that if something is said often enough, unless repeatedy contested it is likely to be accepted as fact (see Russian tv currently)
So ignore broomtree - he is a nothing trying to silence you for a reason. In fact, if you do not keep repeating your same message periodically, decent members will be disappointed

Scotty
Well done on behalf of all. It's crucial we find out. Please keep at it and keep us posted. NB. if you get a response with a phone number phone also to get them to confirm - ask them same thing in different ways.

sfi
have copied last few kooba, my and your single post to advfn
if matters they have an accurate picture
kooba fell out with most ADVFN respected posters with his financial and deal is good arguments when the deal was announced - most openly scornful
it may be that if he has a suspect agenda he arrived here because this is a FAR more populous, read and membered forum and perceived he could influence far more here than on ADVFN. i don't know the answer. only that something is not right