Valuation21 Jun 2024 09:15
Consider the share price ‘valuation’ of IQAI. A substantial number of shares are held by insiders who do not, and most of the time, cannot trade. There are no other significant shareholders. This is not unusual for a micro cap but it does mean that most holdings are relatively small and most activity is from traders rather than investors There is no independent research (exclude paid for research). So the price of shares is determined by the activity of the small shareholders that day or week. Sentiment (for that is what it must be since no shareholder is privy to exclusive information that caused them to buy or sell that day) seems to move wildly for no reason. Assertions are made as fact which are usually ill-informed or not thought out, but can never be based upon new information unless the Company has published it. As the share price moves around violently on small turnover observers feel the need to explain something which is most likely caused by randomness. Posters talk about ‘the market’ without realising that they are ‘the market’ for this share.
Consider valuation principles. Present share price is conventionally the discounted future value. Two problems here. It seems that other than insiders, few shareholders are medium or long term investors. They have bought the shares to sell at a profit next month or next year, and are focussed on and demand news which will enable them to do this. The question of what the value of the Company could be in three, four, five, ten years time, is just not discussed. Current market cap is around £2.5m. Nobody knows for sure that the market cap will be in three years time but it is what intelligent rational investors should be thinking about when trying to decide to buy or sell the shares. Anyone can do some desktop research on the value of a successfully completed Phase One trial, or (if it happens) a successfully completed Phase Two, what ‘ordinary’ revenue could be in three years time and what multiple to apply to that estimated number if so, what are the chances of failure over that period and so on. One thing is clear, the success or otherwise of the Company is unrelated to the shareholding activity of the CEO, the current obsession of many posters here