Summary of the situation14 Jun 2018 20:55
To those who say..." news could drop anytime, why be out? " I say there is plenty of time before deciding to invest or to add weight.
1. Garden Hill. The production test has not yet started. We heard from someone on the interview who knows these things, and he suggested it was not a quick fix, like a "valve or seal" as someone talked about earlier. I have some photos of the site at PAP from November and I can say a new piece of equipment is on display from Simon's pictures. There is a skid mounted test separator with integral control cabin. The pressure gauges and flow recorder are showing zero and the flare stack was dead, so when Simon was over there no testing was going on and there is none going on today either.
2. Supply chain. Clearly the proximity of St Johns and the logistics to support the offshore Grand Banks is of no use to Western NF. So much for any talk of Aker getting involved just because they have an office there. Easier to get to London than Calgary it seems.
3. I doubt there is anything wrong with the test separator unit. It would had been fully checked out before delivery. The picture of the swabbing tool remains on freemanpro website, even though NUOG deleted theirs. Putting 2 and 2 together, I think the delay is downhole and not on the surface. There is an attempt to manage expectations by this interview, so nothing will be known for weeks IMO.
4. As Harry has pointed out, the Bentley consortium decision will be announced sometime in q3 . If Minty has missed this opportunity, then his MDEVCO strategy in NS is flawed.
5. I believe something is going on in Brazil, but I also believe a recent RNS contained a factual error, which is not unusual for this company, and that has not been repeated or subsequently remedied.
6. Helvick and Dunmore are costly history, just like Fyne and Dandy. Contractual obligation delivered, but operator not interested in them.
7. If all these MFD opportunities are going to arrive like London buses, and the SP goes up each time, why risk your cash now? Wait until it's proven with bus number 1 and then invest with no risk.