Member Info for SecretBlueprint

Ryan 666..... how long is a piece of string?

If that information was known, it would provide the only 100% certain long position in the history of markets, so it won't be widely known IMO.

Having said that, the announcement timing of the ICSID award was forecasteable with 95% certainty and made decent money as a trade for those who believed in it coming in at the last possible moment.

There might be valid signs out there at some point which will suggest ROI is throwing in the towel with its annulment request, and deductions about timing might appear, to offer another opportunity for a quick profit.

The FI Govt have a legal restraint on RKH from paying a dividend until tax affairs are settled from oil sales, pehaps in 2025. There will be a loan to repay to Navitas for development costs, perhaps by 2027. Then there will be Sea Lion phase 2 to fund after that.

Don't expect an excess capital reduction dividend before 2030, if at all. It's a growth stock and more than likely be gone by 2030 anyway. It's a capital gain stock from here, or if you are in from 2012, a capital loss stock, and all about reducing loss.

Had you bought the open offer at 7p, and had your trading screen been open at 10.am on the announcement of the ICSID award, there was a brief opportunity window of a 200% gain, which drifted down to 150 %, but that won't be repeated anytime soon, just perhaps a steady gain towards project sanction, and no dividend.

"what do they know that we don’t?"

They are all pensioners and they know that austerity is coming from Hunt the xxxx and cash is king.

"Buy more on the cheap days."
All that does is put a floor on the SP, when a buyback is supposed to rewards investors with a higher SP and capital gain. They should be buying aggressively to drive up the SP, otherwise it is a waste of time and money. Ask the LLOY investors about that.

Buzz, this was explained in the recent RNS, but does not not fully answer the situation...

"The third-party funding agreement does not cover any costs arising past the date of the Award (23 August 2022). Having anticipated Italy might attempt to annul the Award, Rockhopper has a non-binding offer in place to fund both fighting the annulment and enforcing the Award if required. The Company will now consider this along with other funding possibilities. A separate success fee of approximately £3 million is due to the Company's legal representatives on establishing liability and an award requiring Italy to pay over €25 million in damages. This amount is not covered by either funding agreement. Given Italy's request for annulment, the Company is in productive discussions with its legal representatives as regards to this payment."

So it's a new ball game.

SH
That is my point. It needs to be stamped out quickly, not over 18-24 months as suggested in the recent RNS, which knocked the harris out of the SP

LTT

It says "either party" so the Italians could just start over and lose again and start over and lose again. it needs to be stamped out firmly with no recourse to clause 6.

pauldrayton

Exactly, but clause 6 of article 52 is in theory is an endless nightmare, like a fever dream going round and round in your head.

There's a movie in this at some point " Italian Job meets the Matrix"

I have some faith that ICSID will turn down this annulment because I believe it is a third attempt to wrest jurisdiction away from ICSID and give to to the EUCJ, using the pretext of the Panel "manifestly exceeding its powers"
However , beware clause 6 at your peril; it could all start over again............

(6) If the award is annulled the dispute shall, at the request of
either party, be submitted to a new Tribunal constituted in
accordance with Section 2 of this Chapter.

The Athabasca tar sands in Canadian North America contain 1.7 trillion barrels of heavy oil/bitumen in place, but it's politically impossible to extract them. There is no drilling involved, just excavating and processing like any other mineral resource.

It makes Sea Lion look like a Morecambe Bay shrimp.

But Trudeau says NO, and we pay the price.

I thought the whole idea of the share buyback was to return excess capital to shareholders, reduce the number of shares in issue and drive up the share price. So the sooner they are paying 50p+ rather than 35p the better it is for everyone, surely?

ICSID needs to stamp this out and quickly, or the whole process could start over again like in a fevered dream.

"If an award is annulled in whole or in part, a party is entitled to request resubmission to a newly constituted Tribunal to obtain a new award concerning the matter. Either party may start this process by filing a request for resubmission of the dispute, identifying the original award, and explaining in detail which aspects of the dispute are to be submitted to the new Tribunal (Arbitration Rule 55(1))."

If delay was the ROI strategy, they would have left it until December to raise the annulment request and stay of award, for maximum impact.

No, it's all about jurisdiction and if ROI can successfully claim that ECT cases be held in EU courts and not in a Washington based ICSID jurisdiction, that is an existential threat to ICSID and the ECT as it stands. They will claim that the Panel exceeded its authority in this case as exemplar to try and prove it. It's power politics at stake, not economics or justice.

ROI and its legal team are on a mission which has nothing to do with the merits of the case, but to bring down ECT under a greenwashing agenda. ICSID will deal with with it accordingly and promptly.

It is for that reason I believe the annulment request will be the stuffing of the Christmas turkey and gone by year end.

ROI are acting with an agitator on the legal team who wishes to saw the legs off the Energy Charter Treaty. They have tried twice to play the jurisdiction card in favour of an EU court and failed.

This is the third short at the coconut shy, and you only get three shots for your pound. So it's s**t or bust for them.

ROI will claim that the arbitration panel has exceeded its powers (which is a valid reason for annulment ), by raising the jurisdiction issue for a third time. But now the whole weight of the World Bank and ICSID will be applied because for existential reasons; a successful ROI annulment would threaten the whole treaty edifice.

I expect the ICSID will see this as the number 1 priority to defeat and to defeat expeditiously, not over 18-24 months.

There is no appeal. Only a request to annul, which has less chance than Joseph and Mary

From the FIG link posted by Mogger.....

"The recruitment process for the new Director of Mineral Resources has been completed
and a sucessful applicant is currently progressing through the on-boarding process."

Pity they cannot spell successful , but never mind, the post is filled and Andrea can go back to her day job.

I am guessing that Mogger is here because a prior investment in Mediterranean Oil and Gas (MOG), but his/her dedication to unearthing facts and destroying fake news is simply top class. Fantastic poster IMO.

Just to add to the conversation, Aedos Advisors LLP is a partnership not a company and the two named individuals are not directors, they are the 2 only designated members. Partnerships do not own assets in their own name but through partners as custodians. They are advisors to a fund in Bermuda with a similar name , so that is where the beneficial clients are IMO.

Not sure if that is useful in any way, but seems to be how it is, and nothing to do with Vancouver

According to the London Stock Exchange there was only one trade today at 10.11, watch out for another rash of cancelled trades tomorrow

There is a bright new future for GB as a colony of India, as NI rejoins the republic, Scotland disappears into oblivion and EU collapses under the burden of Ukraine integration.

India/GB woud rival USA and China as the new world order. Why is Braverman back in post, if not?