RE: 2012 share price13 Oct 2024 19:14
@JMAX how about you quote me one ruling under the jurisdiction of the ICC where branch profits tax has been awarded in favour of the host nation where the PSC has included competently drafted stabilisation clauses ? If Ghana was so confident why did they drop all the other spurious claims against other international companies , including Kosmos? Why did they not enforce these claims at an earlier opportunity considering how long this field has been on commercial development…oh yes, i forgot, I believe they tried previously but gave up because they didn’t have a case. Let’s see when the decision arrives if i am right or wrong. I have maintained my opinion since the beginning of the case. The Government will probably change on 7th January 25 after elections, the best the Government of Ghana can do now, is to try to save face until this time . Remember this case is a disaster for the country. No outside companies want to invest if they are not protected under international law. Tullow is providing the country with its cheapest hydrocarbons..it makes no sense not to settle their dues or have to pay substantially more replacing production on international markets. Perhaps you would like to elucidate your views…or are you just going to ask questions rather than give logical explanations for you “tea leaf” prophecies.
In relation to receiving part of the insurance proceeds on the turret mooring , did the Government of Ghana compensate the holding company when they paid premiums previously…or did they just want to share in the proceeds because they lost revenue ? The words cake and it , come to mind . Courts expect consistency on interpretation of lawful agreements..you can’t have it both ways once the tax authority has previously ruled the other way. Tullow has called the bluff of the Government because it had no option. The government has lost substantial long term revenues as investment is curtailed.
As for Kenya , the Government can stall by insisting that they want full development of license blocks, but if all sensible avenues to financing the Lapsett pipeline development are exhausted , they will either need to reimburse Tullow for past costs of $2bn or let Tullow move forward with a reduced FDP. You see JMAX , the host nation holds the cards, but they still have to play them eventually or it’s off to the ICC for a ruling again…what has Tullow to lose ?
DYOR the above is the opinions of a private investor . Seek professional advice before making an investment decision.