Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Oh dear. Hardcore1 with his finger on the pulse again.
The Jim Cramer of LSE.
Https: // t . me / +3d8QFLBJwD4yMzVk
Remove all spaces.
Lots of discussion and no ramping/deramping :).
There are multiple MM and they all quote slightly different prices. He could have been quoted 1.97 but didn’t transact hence it won’t show as a trade.
The current live prices are still 1.85/190. LSE only shows delayed prices unless you pay for live price.
Other sites will show live prices, such as investing.com
Do you have the telegram app on your phone/PC?
If not, download it from the App Store.
Then copy the link, paste into notes or something, remove the spaces, then cop/paste that into a browser and it should open the group in telegram for you.
But yes, you need an account on telegram (it’s like having whatsapp).
If you’ve listended to the Roast podcasts, they’ve detailed in there what they expect in terms of tonnage, gate-fees and black mass revenues from the first 12 months. Quite easy to take that, and extrapolate into cash-flow and profit.
We know the gate fees are pure profit, as they will need to be productive without them.
We know that they are profitable with black mass sales at £3500/tonne as that was the IPO figure.
So, it’s quite easy to see where £30m comes from for the lithium plant, and that exclude mines, lead-acid and batter boxes.
Most people haven’t worked this out yet.
P.s. I’m assuming the recyclus deal completes and the extra 921m shares are issued.
That would make current mcap circa £45m-£50m based on 2.5bln shares (very rough calc)
This is another post I made in telegram which was before the follow up post.
——————————
Most companies tend to be valued on P/E (price/earnings) ratio. Growth/startups are valued more on expectations (e.g Tesla and tech start-ups). However, often these are unrealistic IMO and leads to large price movements. TM1 should be classed as a revenue generating growth stock.
Search in google for “fair P/E ratio for growth companies”.
Assuming a 10% annual growth (conservative), then a P/E ratio of 25 is reasonable.
Factor that into TM1 and say £30m net profit p.a. from one shift, plus the lad-acid plant and halo boxes, but after some profits have been used for expansion and mining asset investment. (This is all purely wild guesses of course).
So, a PE ratio of 25 * £30m = £690m mcap.
I can’t see that as a realistic mcap in the short/medium term, but if the revenues do start coming through as expected then the current mcap looks seriously low.
Happy to be corrected on any assumptions/mistakes I’ve made anyone???
Last point - the £30m could be lower if their costs are higher or they invest a lot in expansion etc. If it’s only £15m, then the mcap drops to £345m @25 P/E ratio.
This is something I posted in the telegram group (and refers to other posts made discussing the TM1 valuation based on expected profits
People need to differentiate between the share price and the true value.
They have had an independent valuation (yes, I get that that valuation could have been done by someone who was persuaded to give a preferable valuation for recyclus), but when we’ve discussed figures as to how much is it worth on here, no-one has disputed that we are seriously undervalued.
When I’ve posted figures based on expected profits/turnover and hence market valuation, no-one has questioned those and said “they’re garbage”.
So, if you agree that the valuation by the market does not reflect true value, you can’t then dispute the valuation of recyclus (based on assets etc) of roughly £70m.
I’m talking in terms of valuation of TM1 (post the recyclus deal) of at least £200m (based on a P/E ratio of 10 and profits of £20m), both of which seem conservative.
Markets aren’t a true reflection of value - they are often a short-term popularity context based on sentiment.
GMBL have multiple projects of which the TM1 Leinster project is one.
They need to comply with the options (i.e. 2 years after Oct 22 for the 2nd option and then 2 more years for the 3rd option) or they lapse I believe. How that impacts the percentage which they have been granted if things lapse I don’t know. For example, if they don’t complete the 3 option by Oct 2026 and have no intention of doing so, do they still retain the 55% of the asset? I doubt it but that’s a guess.
The funds coming into TM1 at stages 2 and 3 are not material really, especially when compared to the revenues from the recycling. However, the potential from the actual mining operations at 10% may be useful, even if not substantial.
My guess is they will gradually try to expand the mining side with revenues from the recycling business.
@AndyOz.
I’d recommend reading the RNS dated 6th Oct 2022 to understand the timelines and agreement.
It’s mining, so it’s not fast. The 2nd option needs to be completed by Oct 2024 and then the 3rd option by Oct 2026.
This won’t be bringing in much profit for quite a few years, but if a few of these start to get traction and get developed into mines in the future, for no major cost to TM1, then that’s a win for little risk.
How they choose to progress other mining options once they are generating good profits from recycling will be interesting. Will they choose to part fund and retain a higher percentage of the asset?
@Sjsrace/AndyOz
My impression is that with the continued delays and the ‘bad deal’ with McQuarie bank, this impacted cash balance and their plans for the recyclus deal. These things cost money (fees etc), so preserving cash when you have no revenue makes sense. It only impacts investors as we get impatient, but from the running of the company, cash is king.
When the new investor came on-board, this clearly improved matters and allowed them to move forward/stabilise the situation.
I agree about deadlines/targets though. They either lie to investors or are really poor at estimating timelines. The odd delay would be understandable,. But it seems that every date (this quarter, next month, within 3-4 weeks etc.) fails. This erodes confidence in them as individuals and a company.
Saying that, the project will be successful (IMO) and I’m being patient waiting for news flow to progress in the 2nd half 2023.
The SP is totally irrelevant to the recyclus deal. Totally. It has no effect whatsoever. The terms will be as per the RNS previously released.
The deal will be done on the agreed terms due to Recyclus being valued by an external party at a certain value. If recyclus goes up, then the value of TM1 shares must go up too, as TM1 owns approx 48.5% of recyclus.
The delay is purely down to getting priorities sorted (and funding I assume once Ops start and cash starts coming in).
I’d much rather them focus on getting the plants up and running and agreements in place, then complete the Recyclus deal. I would expect that this will complete in July once the lithium plant in operational.
Agree Andy.
The minor drift is expected IMO. Nothing to worry about and serious investors will be holding as the potential gains 2nd half are huge.
Maybe mid-June for operations to start at lithium plant, and then July (guess) for both lead-acid permit variation and recyclus completion).
News on mine in assets could hit at anytime and also off-take/long-term agreements on black-mass and also news on g halo boxes.
Trying to guess when any of this hits is a mugs game IMO and wanting to trade small fluctuations in SP is pointless to me. Others may want to take the risk, but I’m happy waiting - of course I want things soon but a few weeks either way is not material.
100% agree Fozdog.
I hold a lot of options and the behaviour of the board on this is absolutely pathetic.
I can only assume that Swanny is either very peed off too it maybe it was explained to him before he made his substantial investment to support the company,
Hopefully this has been fed back to the directors and they react accordingly - otherwise they look like so many other scumbags and want to rip people off.
We’d like to thank our shareholders by screwing them over.
Bounced again - can’t hurt to have this info near the top of the threads.
Still waiting …
And 1.5p is your buy-in target you said too.
They have mentioned in the past that they were looking to do the processing of the black mass themselves into the constituent metals. Not heard anything more about that recently though.
They said it will increase profit for them if they do that.
Low volume/trades.
Nothing to worry about.
Not going to hit 1.5p haha nor 3p anytime soon (unless unexpected news comes).
Another 2.5 weeks and things will start to get interesting. I’m ignoring any FUD in the meantime as it’s totally irrelevant.
Agreed.
These TR1 RNS’s are never clear IMO.
If they are now under 3% then they can sell the rest without notification when it happens.
Maybe they need cash due to current banking ’concerns’??