What is most needed in the West is a test of high sensitivity, picks up all corona viruses (and a few more) that is near patient, if negative you do not have SARS-CoV-2, or any of the others. But has to be near patient, result within the hour. But also needed is a next test with high specificity, is the virus SARS-CoV-2 or something else?
Accuracy is the product, and not the sum, of sensitivity and specificity. The NCYT test(s) do well on both but better on specificity. There is a place in the market for a near patient test with high sensitivity and one, lab-based, with high specificity. There is a role for lab based highly specific tests as a second test. But if you do a secondary lab test only after a primary near patient test is positive, which test do you do most?
Second question. The genome was published in Dec. NCYT is 100% specific to that published genome. There have been 100 mutations in the genome (there are reports of 1000 mutations) but the NCYT test is so far 100% specific. That is brilliant news. But what about the next mutation, and who will be first to find the next 100% specific probe?
The Primerdesign is the "best" antigen test on the market and I do wish people would stop knocking it, comparing to an affirmer near patient or indeed as some have to an antibody test, and as an aside my view is that you can enough antibodies to float my boat (all 18 tons of it) and still get, or worse, transmit the disease.
We are not allowed on the board to give "advice" but I am short of all I can short, and the fact that NCYT is the easiest short would suggest that it is the best long. But I remain short.
John, "Are any tests reimbursed in france ?"
Been a while, Maggie was alive and in No 10 but the patient paid me, the GP, at point of service. If the patient was French the bill was divided into As and Ts could have been Cs and Gs (medical joke). If you had a patient with a Colles fracture it was 100Fr for the consultation, bit more for the X-ray and even though I knew the diagnosis I would take "specialist" views, on same plate for a few more As and reduce under local block (that Ts) plaster and the patient had to take to the local pharmacy and pay for the marcaine, needle, padding and plaster which were delivered back to surgery. The bill for both was taken to the post office and reimbursed according to your tax status, like fully if unemployed 60% if employed by government and 40% if self employed but paying taxes. The bill was in As and Ts so the local postmaster would not know the diagnosis, but pretty obvious if your wrist is in plaster.
I suspect all done on line now. But if you went to a cabinet medical, paid your bill and did not like the opinion, treatment or did not get the test or drugs you felt you needed you went to the one next door and got another bill, both were reimbursed. At the time the French bill per head for GP medication was about 7 times that in UK. We were the only practice to be "on-line" albeit dial-up and any communication to the local health authority had to be by fax.
You could be right, my recollection is that Katie married to Steve Miller tested positive and that all the staff are tested before allowed to see the ginger grump and that the results come back within 15 mins
smokie, I, and I fear many others, have no idea. I can speak for 'flu, which is why it is a winter virus. This one was clearly potent in ski-lifts in February. As for touching a mask with a gloved hand, I have asked hundreds to leave the table and re-scrub, mask glove do not meet in the operating theatre.
Smokie, Most small RNA viruses survive longest, ex vivo, on cold, hard, dry surfaces. That based on H5N1 and please come up with a paper that shows SARS-CoV-19 is not the same. The flu viruses survive minutes on living skin but an hour or so on a rubber/plastic/neoprene glove. We will know next year but at the moment I find it bonkers that people are wearing gloves and then adjust their mask with a gloved hand.
jim, I think we may have crossed, ships in the night etc But clearly sp is not going to zero, £5.40 possible so the £2.70 that was mentioned is better than a 50/50. As I type, 86% bets on SPX are up bets, and for those visitors 98% on AVCT are up but SPX are only taking closing bets, make of that what you will.
ShearClass, Rationale, bit overpriced. Target price, no idea. The out and out rampers, £20 by yesterday, have gone. someone suggested £2.70, about right? but really have no idea. What do you see as fair value and where I should close? It is the best test, yet.
Bramley, " its an antigen test. Completely different"
Well, yes. It is not an antibody test so on the analogy of a roulette wheel if not back must be red but it is looking for a very specific bit of RNA. It does well. The full genome is published. There is no "moat" Just buy a test and you can replicate.
You know I am short, that is my rationale, if betting on shares can ever be rational.
minerals, "it’s just thought it was a bit dodgy !"
It is well dodgy. Spread over 20%. Speak to your trading room. Even if a share goes NT (negotiated trade), speak to someone on the floor and put in your price. Not sure with whom you hold an account, Of those though whom I hold HL is not the best but all will trade for you, especially if the trade is more than a couple of grand (but maybe five figures for HL)
minerals, How many do you want? Phone up you dealer at Barclays or if you do not have the number (you could start with 0800 279 3667) just place a limit offer on line, oops, you want to sell, good luck, but still worth phoning the dealers, they could have a willing buyer at 0.22. The trade would show as off-book. But good luck, it is not called a market for nothing.
Wberanrd, "....of tests or antibody testing."
Accuracy is the product of sensitivity and specificity. If by testing you mean looking for the virus on a swab, I think they have picked a key segment of the RNA and have the appropriate probe. So a positive is a positive. But you ask about a test. For any medical test sensitivity is a measure of false negatives and specificity a measure of false positives, that in itself is a bit counter intuitive and I will not turn it round and start on the predictive vale of a test.
So: nose and throat swab and if the probe RNA is found in either the result is positive. I have a dog, really do, she is called Luna. I do not have a cat but they can carry the virus, without symptoms and have been shown to pass to other cats.
I have Covid, swab positive true positive
I have Covid, swab dog (or just miss my tonsil) false negative less sensitivity
I do not have covid, test dog, true negative
I do not have covid, test cat get a positive. reduces specificity
I am not sure if dogs and cats help anyone else understand but works for me.
Accuracy is the product of specificity and sensitivity.
It is even more complicated with antibody tests, there is no evidence that having antibodies gives protection, nor indeed that not having an IgG antibody means that you do not have an immunity.
But good for my aged brain to try to put up arguments.
lloyd, Were you the originator of the 270 level? Just trawled through your posting but cannot find it. If it was you, and the post has gone to a better place, could you please explain why 275?
PS, 30% negatives, I have worked with colleagues whose knowledge of the anatomy of the head and neck was so poor that they would be lucky to get 30% positive, even if both the tonsils and posterior nares were dripping SARS-CoV-2 .