Member Info for SEA7

they advocating buying bloe a year ago at 3.5p as a speculative buy - that was spot on.

the writer is no longer advocating the bullish case at this price and this stage of development. He raises some very relevant points. sign up to read the whole article.

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bigbench,

that is what you get on these bb's - the opinions of others based on the latest rns's and their own conclusions.
so share prophets writers are not much different to posters here or the views of half the broker reports you see on sites, such as proactive.

you can sign up at share prophets and read 3 articles a month for free.

They aren't singing the bull case at the current share price, lets put it that way.

no - I do not think there will be any further placing here - not yet anyhow. I made that point, as seeing the ceo's out on the road, always has a reason. If the stock was doing fine, business as usual, nothing much to say, things ticking over, you probably wouldn't hear from them.

Personally, I think that the market may see the ops update/flow rates on monday morning, with a spud date for 38 in it.

If Paul has been out on the asset hunt, then he may hint at it in the update. By rights he should let the market know, if he is in discussion over an asset, even if he doesn't name it, to avoid competitors finding out.

I did think about buying today, just to have a position for monday, however, I did not in the end. We shall see, as you say.

Thanks Mike,

I quite often find that CEO's get out on the roadshow, do the rounds of the usual sites - proactive, directors talk, etc just before the begging bowl comes out for an equity raise.

I do still watch them as it is good to hear the person actually talk it, as you can sometimes glean sentiment towards aspects of the company, by how animated they are over certain parts or not as the case may be.

Same as Rns's - you can tell what they like the most, by the way they are written. They know most investors won't want to read a long rns, so any ops update will have the bits they want you to read at the beginning. Ever noticed how the main event in the CEO's eyes is always at the start, front and centre and lengthy then all the stuff they aren't to bothered about, or don't want you focusing on is further down and usually very brief footnotes.

eg - bloe rns 8th july proudly announces the drilling/workover equipment for workover programme - all those highlights telling you how great it is.

Just go further down and you see this....

GOG has an option to call back the ZJ40 rig from six months after the Commencement Date, by giving at least three months' notice to the Company, in order to drill one well in one of its own licence areas. The drilling of this well is currently scheduled for September 2020 and estimated to take approximately 60 days.

....

block says it has exclusive use of this rig, well not quite, there is a call back option on it, which could be brought forward if they so wish it and block have to hand the rig back having been given three months notice for a 60 day job.

videos are just sales pitches in my view. Bit like investor evenings. CEO's are salesmen by nature. No self respecting ceo is not going to talk up his own book. They are designed to wet the appetite of existing holders and reach out to new ones, nothing more.

The trust in PH by the market has taken a knock as well. He did not bother telling the market that production at 16az had stopped. It was only noticed by its absence in the presentation etc. Then he mentions that production will restart in approximately seven days, that was 18 days ago.

Yes I fully understand they needed to re-think their strategy in light of the success at 16az, however, the open honesty that Paul had with the market, has given way to structured and carefully considered wording of communications, which do contain all the facts, even if the only ones highlighted are the ones they want you to see.

another example is the recent rns regarding 100% at west rustavi. The rns states 100% of the contractor share of revenue. This is not all the revenue from the 700bopd, when it restarts. The contractor share is 50% of the revenue, after capital costs recovered from the first 50% of the revenue. Once all capex is recoverd, the contractor share is 40% of the profit oil only. The government gets the other 60%.

The market thought the company was pumping 760bopd from all three fields and generating good profits. It was in fact only producing the 60bopd from two fields, after WR was shut off and the company went back to its loss making status. This fact was not made public. It still, as far as we know isn't producing from WR16AZ. They are breakeven at 100bopd - so they are using some of that cash raised to keep the lights on at the moment, as they are only producing 60bopd.

They need 16az back online and spud on 38.

that one line has diluted the ability of the stock to rise on the strength of the balance sheet to support the current assets, simply by being there.

Paul doesn't have to be squeezed on acquisitions - there is a 608bcf gas asset waiting to be monetised, already in house.
He indicated that he is looking in the region and beyond. The world is a big place and there are plenty of distressed assets around, beyond the georgian region that he can pick up for a song, when you know you have the cash in place to get them into production. That is the aspect that worries the market. Where and how much.

He can simply say "no" - he doesn't have to pay a higher price. Walk away and preserve the cash - if they really want to sell a non core asset to him, they will - cheaply.

The bashing of the sp has already taken place. There are a few reasons why the SP can be higher and a few why it can be lower at the end of Q3.

Seeing 16AZ back on line, with confirmation of flow rates and oil sales taking place will underpin this level of share prices. A good result at 38 will get it into the 20's.

16az coming back online at a lower level, delays with 38 or problems with the well during drilling and a poorly executed acquisition will see this lower.

There is enough uncertainty in O and G, without Paul adding the M and A bit to it.

Paul moved the goal posts with his plans of acquisitions and he would do well to reel that in a bit.

I do not think anyone doubts the ability of the company and its norio/satskheni/west rustavi strategies.

The share price in my view, would have been easily holding the 10p -11p level, with no fund raise and 700bopd from 16az.

With the fund raise, as I had hoped they would do, to capitalise the balance sheet further in preparation for the next stages,
the share price held well, as a post equity raise opening price of 12.2p was in line with the amount raised.

The one aspect that the market isn't keen on and is marking it down for, is this statement in the fund raise rns....

The funds raised also give us the freedom to explore fresh opportunities: we are a young, ambitious company keen to apply the low cost, innovative drilling technologies we have deployed in Georgia to new ventures in the region and beyond.
....

This creates an impression of an overly eager desire to empire build and get to far ahead of themselves. Had Paul not indicated that a chunk of this cash is likely to be spent on acquiring something, which will obviously need money spent on it and creates an uncertainty over what any expenditure may look like, the share price would probably have moved back towards 15p on the expectation of an imminent drill at wr38, with cash allocated to norio, satskheni, on seismic and then keeping a reserve of cash to ensure that they can cover the bills in the event of any issues.

PH really should focus on the three assets they have and reach a point where they are playing from a real position of strength, not risking overplaying their hand, so early on.

thks aegos.

this well is as much about proof of concept and training the team in using it, as it is providing a better understanding of the structures in play.

tks bear

collective investment schemes only announce at 5% then 10%. Didn't know that - thanks.

yes, they should have in my view, as others were notifying the change of holding due to an event , rather than sale or purchase.

ramptastico - that is not correct.

Any holder over 3% must declare at each full percentage point threshold that is crossed and within two days of doing so for uk listed companies.

Miton sold 5m shares on the 16th July and notified on the 17th as per the rules. They may still sell more and unless they go below 4%, then they are not required to notify the change in holding until they do.

If they plan to exit, then we will know within 48 hours of them selling more than 0.73% of their remaining holding.

Now we finally have an actual spud date. 8 days from today. With spares and forward planning for c30.

It is about time and this appears to be a much more well thought out plan. They now need to prove that decision to buy that rig.

since 1st July the volume is about 100m shares traded. Today was the lowest volume day all month.

Miton selling represents about 5% of the volume this month.

aj- I was hovering over the buy button here today, when it pulled back into 11's again and decided not to, as the stock had been weakening over the last several sessions. Looks like that was miton and buyers were struggling to soak it up.

I hold zen from 2.7p for 2/3rds of my holding and am comfortable with it as things stand.

I have kept this on my watchlist ever since selling at 15.66p.

See what happens in the morning.

if i recall, they may have been part of the 12 month lock in agreement at IPO, which ended in june 2019. They may not have been able to sell and as Block has been a star performer for them since they bought in at 4p and their funds are underperforming overall. Not sure on volatility of their funds, so they may be rebalancing.

Either way, markets like this do not like seeing major holders dumping stock - sends out all the wrong signals and means the buyers will be absent tomorrow, whereas holders who were unsure are gonna dump.

they are also booking gains as their small companies fund and micro cap fund is underperforming. they are both about 20% down in the last year.

they sold just over 5m shares and still hold about 18m