@dai: much of it started with the macondo 252 blowout in mid-2010. it spread like the mumps and every man and his dog was falling knife catching. coupled with the falklands it was a heady ****tail. at that time ii (interactive investor) was the best platform, closely followed by lse which hasn't progressed or changed at all in that time. anyway this week, onwards and upwards by thursday when the transparency of not having a placing at 7p sinks in...
I don't think for one minute the ludicrous placing rhetoric of some has wholly caused this, but it's certainly timely. Imo there's a substantial, orchestrated churn going on, coupled with MM manipulation. The Placing brigade just timed it right in that respect...
Quote: "once you place your bet it is further clouded by what price do you think it could rise to if successful."
I think that issue constitutes more than further clouding so to speak. Many have a price absolutely locked in and it dictates everything going forward at this sort of stage. Even when things happen along the way, the platitudes about price still remain, entrenched more than ever. Me personally, I'll be trading on time and not price. Whether the SP is 6p or 26p on my target de-risk date, I shall not hesitate one jot to pull the sell trigger. It really is as simple as that.
If all goes to plan and no nasty surprises, I know for sure, if they spud say 3rd week of September and then stipulate 4 weeks to drill and evaluate, then I'll take 75% out by circa first week of October (likely the Thursday of that week) . I know I've been caught before - albeit some years ago - with companies stating 4 weeks+, only to get a blnasty surprise by the end of the third week. And as you say, all imo/experience and dyor...
Some dickwad claimed yesterday that all those holding 5/6/7p positions sold out days or weeks ago. Really!?! Well, I'm still sitting on 6p thank you very much and won't be selling a bean until mid-October. I did sell some - foolishly - on the day of that fateful, Friday Sofori RNS, but I rapidly made up for that silly impetuous mistake. ..
Https://mygeekwisdom.com/2020/10/24/nobody-trusts-anybody-now-and-were-all-very-tired/
In some ways you have to feel for their utter desperation. They clearly opened shorts when it was a 50/50 regarding the rig, hoping HE1 would can it for this year due to SOFORI and other rig availability issues. Then when that Monday RNS arrived a few weeks back they got caught clearly with their shorts up (so to speak, ha!). Now they're desperate to get out as low as possible and go long. Very transparent.
Even if they diluted now, raising circa 5mill at 8p say. A further 60 million ish shares. Extremely unlikely to happen, but why would people sell a position at say 6, 7 or 8p based on that scenario. It's dilution, yes, but it isn't going to sink you...
Indeed. It's been conviniently brushed under the carpet just how much of an autonomous assett that rig actually is, and where it is. I find the people (clearly having desperate shorts they can't close) like the small, closed-minded Twitter contingent who appear to have the biggest impact...