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Is it fair to assume that the talks mentioned in the Feb 6th RNS are still ongoing? It mentioned a long term restructure, whereas today we have a rescheduled payment. I might fire off an email and ask, unless someone has already done so. Apologies if I have missed it being discussed today.
This is obviously speculation and purely theoretical to generate debate but in theory.... if Orion bought and sold the assets themselves, would that generate a higher tax bill than buying and selling through WTI? Especially as we know that Orion will have greater say on what happens with the cash generated.
Boffin, judging by the end message of the RNS, they still don't expect to meet repayments even in June. I agree with your sums TDT. It would take a huge step up in copper to get close to meeting the repayments. That and the C1 costs to remain stable, without any groundwater issues and currency changes etc. Given the uncertainty in the markets and SP recently, it could be a bumpy ride.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the unhedged and unsold copper from the last six months. It could be a matter of timing and not appearing in the half year accounts or possibly set a little aside for a better price environment for copper. Once the repayments can formally begin, the market should settle.
It's certainly not looking good at the moment. I hope the RNS due next week can steady the ship. There's a part of me that is thinking i should cut my losses but I knew the volatility and risk involved. So it could be a case of hold my nerves! :)
Thanks for taking the time to explain, Fundamentally. There is such a huge learning curve involved! Admittedly, I have put together a rather small but high risk portfolio as a hobby. This is the one of the bigger positions, so I imagine that there will be loads of lessons to be learned. :)
I'm a bit late with this but re:Boffin, something didn't seem right with your figures on Mon 09:02. You calculated that the average sale price as $5393. I think this may be wrong. Hedges (that I have found) account for $44 mil of revenue, with 7300 tons being sold at an average of $6042.19. I propose that only a small portion of the unhedged (1544 tons of) copper was sold to make up the other 3mil of revenue. This is reflected by an increase in inventories of about $5.5m on the balance sheet. This probably changes nothing going forward. However, I was curious as to how our numbers were so far apart. :)