GreenRoc Accelerates their World Class Project to Production as Early as 2028. Watch the full video here.
I'm not sure I would read much into today's RNS at all. It is primarily a backward looking statement of a period that is three months old. Yes there was this:
Colin Bird, Executive Chairman said: "Production levels increased during the 2nd quarter of 2021 and continued to increase during the 3rd quarter. We look forward to the contribution of the hard rock mining as the adit advances at Guy Fawkes and mini open pit commences production at Boa Esperanza.
AND
The Fair Bride project continues to gather pace, with increased optimism for production to commence during the final quarter of 2021."
But overall this seems to me a 'clear out some admin reporting tasks we need to do for the AGM' type RNS. The future-looking CB statements seem delivered low-key, but I would expect that in a document like this looking backwards.
So my best guess, a clearing of the the decks of minor news because he wants this out of the way before the main reveal!
Stevemocal, good point,I hadn't considered that XTR is probably be obliged to RNS when they know they have reached tghe magic 2MT contained copper. That said, I think there but be a small amount of wiggleroom based on the word 'know'. I suspect a lawyer would argue they don't 'know' until they have enough independent assay results to be preety confident of this figure, and that could be as long as a piece of string! It certainly could require quite a few more assay results to come in, allowing the team to get on with the drilling.
So we have come around full circle, If we want to get a JORC for the whole license area it will take time and a lot of money. If go for a smaller JORC (but greater than 2MT contained copper) we are in danger of not getting the full value of the areas we have not yet drilled/assessed. Interesting dilemma for CB and the Board. As I have said before, perfhaps we need some creative thinking to square this circle. And while we discuss the potential future billion pound deal the market drops from 4.6/4.7 to sell to 4.5p and our market cap stays just under £40 million . (lol) Carts and horses come to mind!
Thanks Volmer. I think the most important statement(s) in your response is (I guess in your view)
' AA's buyback option is based on the 2m tons being established as an inferred resource. This inferred resource cannot just be stated by the company but requires a formal JORC.'
Stevemocal, I hope I am worrying needlessly. So is your understanding, that if we get to (or announce to the market) 2mT contained copper then AA cannot (or perhaps won't) immediately trigger the option to buy back and start an independent valuation without waiting for further exploration?
Footrot may be a separate entity in our minds but does the buy-back clause cover the job lot at the moment? And if there is no evidence of footrot having copper would an independent evaluation say this doesn't add value. There is clearly a lot of uncertainty here about the buy-back option, I hope CB & co are fully on the ball as if £100's of millions are at stake we can't be sure everyone will play fair!
Are we getting ahead of ourselves? Can Xtr really even say definitively that we have 2mT of contained copper without independent assay results? Perhaps we need to plonk a couple of drill holes in the SE anomoly and on Footrot, so that the potential of these areas starts to be included in any numbers should the 2mT be reached, after all the independent assessment will presummable take time, but could potentially start as soon as the target is formally reached (not sure?) . Shame no assay results yet today. I am now sorry that people told Colin to release RNSs at 7:00 because I don't know whether he will continue to release them at all times of the day as he has in the past or not. So is there still a chance of an RNS today or since people's comments will we probably have to wait until 7:00 tomorrow. Nice start today, but are the fireworks over? Retrace? Or is it just a pause for breath we are seeing?
And I wonder if CB has considered the tactic getting a new JORC of ( let's say) 1.95 Mt of contained copper!
I don't know if anyone here has seen/read the buy back option agreement, but unless someone knows the agreement is inflexible, I don't think an outright rejection is necessaily the only possibility. Some lawyer somewhere must be able to come up with a buyback of part of the resource ( = 2mt copper= a certain sized open pit) with the remainder of the as yet untested resource being retained by XTR possibly with a second buy back clause of the remaining resource depending on the additional copper found. (perhaps somuch per extra 100ths tons of copper?) This way AA (or some other major miner) could get on with planning the mine leavingXTR do what it does best: looking/drilling for extra tonnage of copper.
Anglo American (AAL) one of the biggest miners in the world, and the company we bought the lachlan fold asset drilling rights from. They have an 'option' to buy back in certain circumstances.
Come on lads and lasses, I see no reason at all why AA wouldn't want to mine this. Of course they will not want to appear too eager but they will also be keen to get a deal (if CB is naive enough) for the whole lot before the JORC size becomes 4MT copper or even more plus Ella's gold. I would be surprised if AA hadn't already made contact with CB. Whilst people are rightly warning that revenue from our African assets may be slower than we would like, and that lots of drilling may be required to prove up a full JORC for BR, I wouldn't completely discount the possibility of a relatively quick deal of some type on the Lachlan fold assets. Obviously CB shouldn't sell our 'interest' in the SE anomoly and Footrot cheaply and yes this MAY be a cause of delay etc, OR some sort of 'creative' deal could be done around this issue to allow a decision of the 'open pit' to go forward quickly whilst safeguarding XTR's rights to possible future 'extentions'. I know I am speculating a bit, but what I am sure about is that IF a deal is being discussed, we will only learn about it after it has been done! So possibily a long wait to get the true value of the company or something may come out of the left field 'fairly' quickly! GLA. DYOR!
Hi Stevemocal. CB didn't say a new model by hopefully next week he said 'a new pit shape'. Make of that what you will, but he didn't 'promise' an updated financial model, even if he intends to give us one. (Reference: V O X interview 28 Sept about 7 min 40 secs in.) So I am with Ella on this, I don't think we will get a new JORC in the near future, although if I'm wrong I would be very pleased.
From V 0 X markets traders cafe a brief write up about XTR today.
'Xtract Resources (XTR) announced an update of operations and projects and its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2021. As well as recent storming updates from Bushranger, the company is sitting on the Kalengwa open pit Copper Mine, one of the highest-grade copper mines in Zambia. The Manica Gold Project in Mozambique is situated in the Odzi-Mutare-Manica Greenstone belt, with an estimated 2 million ounces of gold previously mined in the area. Given the still modest market cap of just under £40m, it would appear that more in the market are ready to appreciate the portfolio the company has.'
An additional point, Didn't Colin say we would be paid for these bulk samples? So isn't a small revenue stream opening up as we are having this discussion?
But...but... but, stop raining on my parade you cads you (lol). I know Colin is often a 'tad' optimistic with timescales but didn't he talk about blasting and bulk samples etc this week and next? A serious question, does it really take several months between 'bulk samples' and production. I had assumed that 'bulk samples' were the step immediately before production. Have I got that wrong?
I was always suspicious of 'Super September' as I thought it was too soon. But with some of the African assets soon to start producing substantial cash and two or three BR assay results and a re-worked ore model due this month I have more faith in "Outstanding October'. GLA.
What he actually said is ' What we have got ALREADY is much bigger. (my caps),So hopefully add in the same again for the anomoly to the SE and I make that much nearer your higher limit Market Cap and maybe plus a bit! Of Course Colin may be too optimistic and it has rubbed off on me or he may have misspoke. But are people scared to say what we might have here because it just seems almost unbelievable (and I agree it does seem difficult to believe a small company with a current market cap of around £37M might have such a high-value future? On the other side of the argument I didn't really know about the warrants issued exercisable at various points. They will no doubt lower the gain for ordinary sharehholders and also provide headwinds again the price rising too far or too fast, but are they likey to make much diffence to the market cap in (say) 18-24 months time? So are the upper limits of what we might have so mindboggling (and the figures we are talking about are just BR) that no one want to guessimate what the longer term value of the company could be?. Still lets try to keep our feet on the ground the SP is current about 4.5p. Everthing else is just a maybe, one day, perhaps. Nice to dream though.
Idon't want to ramp, but 35p gives us a Market cap of maybe around £400M. I think CB is hinting the lachlan fold assett could be much higher alone. The real quesztion is how long to hold. In 18 months time -over a £1 a share anyone? But does anyone have the nerve required when the ride could be a real rollacoater?
I have now re-listened to this midweek Takeaway chat. I would recommend it to everyone, but if you don't have time for a whole hour there are some sections that are much more important than others. In particular the period betwwn 39 mins in and approx 10 mins long covers the following:
A shoutout to iceberg
At 2MT of contained copper already? CB says we must be approaching this.
We will get to a position where we will stop, catch our breath and reassess.
We haven’t touched the biggest anomaly which is probably as big as Racecourse again.
I’m not stopping short of 1BT (implying 4MT contained copper?)
How confident will be sold to a bigger playing? CB very confident.
Only the big boys could handle this one. This is not a mid-cap project.
Assay results should be coming in every two or three weeks, or even sooner.
Could someone buy Xtr in its entirety? CB It’s a possibility but Bushranger and Eureka are very different. [In my view CB sounds sceptical of this]
Eureka - still understanding it. Major mining companies have expressed an interest. Eureka could fit the mid to big, Lachlan fold just have to be big.
Then 52 mins in for 7mins
Does Colin suggest BR should be worth much more than Hudson Bay mine In Arizona (sold for $400 Million a couple of years ago). He certainly seems to compare that mine unfavourably with the Lachlan fold! What we have got already is much bigger. There’s no comparison.
Mention of valuable contribution from other African ‘supporting’ assets (excl Eureka). Hoping that in the New Year the African assets incoming cash pays for the BR drills to keep turning. CB want to make Lachlan fold as big as possible but doesn’t want dilution but no guarantee.
I watched this video late last night so I may have not got it right but a couple of quick thoughts which I will need to check when I listen again later today. I didn't get the idea the assay results would be coming think and fast. I thought he said assay results every two weeks or so(?) If that is for 20 holes, 2 weeks or so a piece plus a little 'Colin' delay factored in, and it could be nearly six months to get them all(?) God it was an interesting interview but a little all over the place. Second point, did he also say they would pause and reflect for a while at one stage? Again need to check that and work out at what point he said it. Anyone who has listen more carefully (when they were awake) hear these two pionts and have any thoughts/ comments /corrections to them.