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it's

imho this article fails to highlight the determined political backing (both NTG and Canberra) its received and it also fails to highlight the strategic importance of NT gas for export to Japan and China.

GGP isn't a producer, it's an explorer. The current price of gold is less of an influence on the company as it would be if GGP was a producer but a falling gold price will drag down the entire gold-silver-valuable commodity sector

GGP has already fallen considerably. I believe it's value is deeply embedded and drilling will release that value. The gold price in that sense is neither here nor there but yes, it's volatility does have an impact of all gold company valuations

Both Santos and Japan’s Inpex have suggested the NT’s shale gas production could be exported. Santos stated in mid-February that the McArthur Basin’s gas resources could support a future backfill or expansion of its Darwin LNG terminal. Inpex’s president director for Australia, Hitoshi Okawa, stated last September that Inpex’s acreage in Beetaloo might eventually underpin an expansion of the Ichthys LNG project.

If shale gas developers looking to the export market, NT production may fail to reduce domestic gas prices as officials. Toleman says: “If Beetaloo is developed I expect LNG exports to play a significant role. This will reduce the impact on the Australian domestic market.”
Cost challenge

While the future is looking brighter for NT’s shale gas sector, challenges remain. The need to reduce costs is first among these.

While early results in Beetaloo were encouraging, “a lot more work is needed to prove it is a viable play”, Graeme Bethune, CEO of Australian consultancy EnergyQuest, tells Petroleum Economist. He lists the NT’s higher regulatory burden, remoteness of the plays and the fact that drilling had to be suspended during the wet season as additional challenges. In addition to these challenges, Toleman highlights a lack of existing infrastructure .

Onshore developers in the NT must adhere to a code of practice that the territory’s government introduced in June 2019. The code mandates enforceable standards and requirements on key areas including well operations, surface activities, wastewater management and methane emissions. Falcon, for example, stated on 20 February that Origin would drill water impact monitoring bores at Kyalla 117 over the next month in order to comply with the code of practice.

Levy agreed that bringing costs down would be a major challenge for drillers and says equipment scarcity, high labour costs and stricter regulatory requirements had made stimulated wells in NT uneconomic up to this point. While noting that costs would eventually fall as operators grew to understand the region, he warns “there is a real possibility that operators will be unable to economise under Australian conditions to a level that would make the play commercial”.

end

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/upstream/exploration-production/2020/australia-rejoins-road-to-shale-riches

Andrew Kemp
Melbourne
28 Feb 2020

Jemena’s Northern Gas Pipeline (NGP), which has a capacity of 32.85 PJ/yr, delivers NT gas to the east coast gas market. The pipeline operator says it could expand the NGP to 255.5 PJ/yr should shale gas exploration justify the multi-billion-dollar commitment.
“If Beetaloo shale was in Texas and had to sell at Henry Hub prices—$2/mn Btu—it would almost certainly be uneconomic” Levy, Rystad Energy

The federal government’s efforts are aimed squarely at reducing east coast gas prices, which are higher than those seen on the spot LNG market. But it is those same high domestic prices that have made shale gas development possible.

“High domestic gas prices give operators a much higher breakeven price to work with. For example, if Beetaloo shale was in Texas and had to sell at Henry Hub prices—$2/mn Btu—it would almost certainly be uneconomic,” Daniel Levy, the Sydney-based head of Rystad Energy’s Australasian upstream research, tells Petroleum Economist. “However, selling at east coast prices of $5.50/mn Btu, assuming the current price is a short-term trough, offers a much more achievable target.”

The breakeven price of the 5tn ft³ Beetaloo play is $7-9/'000 ft³, Wood Mackenzie senior analyst Daniel Toleman tells Petroleum Economist. He adds that the breakeven would be lower if appraisal activity confirms a larger resource, dropping to around $4-6/mn ft³ for a 30tn ft³ resource.

cont......

Falcon says the joint venture would evaluate all the technical data gathered from the conventional cores, sidewall cores, DFITs and wireline logging in order to determine the Kyalla Formation’s prospectivity. Origin Energy operates EP76, EP98 and EP117 with a 70pc stake, while Falcon owns the remaining 30pc. A second well at EP76 is to be drilled later this year.

In Empire Energy’s annual report, published on January 31, the company says drilling approvals for its planned 2020 exploration well in EP187 were near completion. Recently finalised mapping results of its seismic data have determined two well site locations, with drilling scheduled to begin once the wet season has passed and regulatory approvals have been secured.
Market options

The sheer size of the NT’s shale gas potential has made it a tempting target for developers eager to replicate the US shale gas revolution in a market with extensive LNG export infrastructure and tight domestic supplies.

The successful development of Beetaloo could lead to a major new source of gas supply for the domestic market at a time when the Australian government is negotiating with state and territory governments over boosting the volume of gas production earmarked for local consumption.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) warns, in a February 18 report, that east coast states could experience gas supply shortages in the long term. The commission says averting a shortfall in the country’s southern states from 2024 would require more upstream investment in the south, expanding transportation capacity to facilitate increased NT and Queensland gas shipments and at least one LNG import terminal to be developed

cont........

Australia rejoins road to shale riches
Shale gas developers are beginning to ramp up their exploration efforts following the end of a freeze on fracking approvals in the Northern Territory

Australia’s shale gas sector is showing its first true signs of activity since the Northern Territory (NT) decided to lift its two-year moratorium on hydraulic fracturing in 2018.

The Darwin government’s ban on fracking, introduced in 2016, derailed Santos and Origin Energy’s exploration plans, with both companies having only drilled a handful of wells up to that point. The decision, prompted by growing environmental opposition to fracking, froze development on the federal territory’s estimated 500tn ft³ shale gas resource.

The NT lifted its ban after a 15-month independent scientific inquiry reported in March 2018 that the risks surrounding fracking could be mitigated if its 135 recommendations were implemented. The government adopted the inquiry’s proposals, lifted the moratorium and was then able to approve the new work programmes of leading Australian independent Santos and E&P company (and energy retailer) Origin Energy in June 2019.

Santos revealed in its annual report, published on February 20, that its production test, at an almost six-year old well in the MacArthur Basin, has delivered better than expected flow tests. Meanwhile, Origin successfully completed the first of a two-well drilling programme in the Beetaloo sub-basin. Australian independent Empire Energy, meanwhile, reported in January that its recently completed 2D seismic study had led to the identification of two drilling targets on its Beetaloo acreage.
Project progress

Santos also noted in its annual report that it has completed a diagnostic fracture injection test (DFIT) and four-stage stimulation of the vertical Tanumbirini-1 well in exploration permit 161 (EP161). Santos operates EP161, EP162 and EP189—which form the Beetaloo/McArthur Project—with a 50pc stake, while NT-focused private E&P company Tamboran Resources owns the remaining interest.

The vertical well test of Tanumbirini-1, which was originally spudded in June 2014, flowed at more than 1.2mn ft³/d, the company says. Santos intends to drill two appraisal wells in EP161 once the NT’s wet season ends in April.
500tn ft³ - Northern Territory shale reserves

Origin, meanwhile, has successfully drilled, cased and cemented the Kyalla 117 N2-1H ST2 well in EP117, junior partner Falcon Oil & Gas announced on February 20. The well, which targets the Lower Kyalla Formation, has been drilled to a total measured depth of 3,809m, including a 1,579m lateral section drilled at 90 degrees.

cont...

We do need some direction on DMS contracts

''Some market participants are selling to their gold positions because they “need to be in cash, for now, to meet margin calls elsewhere,” said George Gero, managing director with RBC Wealth Management.

Others expressed similar sentiments.

“Despite the turmoil in markets, and the worst week for equity markets since the financial crisis, gold and its precious-metal peers have joined the selling party,” said a research note from TD Securities. “We believe this is due to extremely stretched positioning, as both the number of long positions and the number of traders long [bullish] are at record levels, which elevated the risk of a meaningful pullback off the highs. Further, as observed in previous episodes of market turmoil, gold will often be sold to generate liquidity and cover margins.”

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-02-28/-Forced-selling-pressures-gold-prices-despite-tumble-in-risk-assets.html

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Understand margin and leverage and you may arrive at an answer to the current volatility now being seen across many liquid asset markets.

What we are seeing is not systemic, it's pure short term management of liquidity

'am'

joe - You're asking questions no one can answer. Hold the stock and accept the risk that comes with it. That's all you can do other than exit the stock when you feel the time is right for yourself.

Like most here and across the market, the financial consequences in terms of paper value are pretty hefty. I for one I'm now sitting on hefty losses but that's equity risk for you. What I do know is that my capital is invested in quality companies, well managed with quality assets. I also know that this current bout of manic activity will slowly subside. When? Fook knows, but it will.

We hold and are patient, if nervously patient

$1689 on Monday. Now, $1623. That's a hefty fall in a week

joe - Panic sellers. Fear of prices going lower. Heightened perception of risk. Gold being hammered. General sense of doom and gloom which I personally believe is a temporary issue. It's all in there. Take yer pick but it's certainly not company specific, it's across the entire market

Will we get to 5p next week? It's an impossible question to answer. Fingers crossed for material news!

gl

Oh, I didn't recognise it. Apologies

https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/20200211-GGP-Presentation-February-2020.pdf

'of gold'

The price of isn't directly correlated to the supply and demand for physical gold. That may appear counter intuitive. The US dollar, US Treasury yields have far more of a direct influence. Gold is in direct competition with other assets for international speculative capital. They can switch those billions from one asset to another in the blink of an eye.

Also remember that the gold market is 95% paper gold, not physical gold and it's a market that is utterly bent and corrupt

that Newcrest have chosen to release the Antipa news on an Antipa headed document and that's on the ASX site. This news doesn't even appear on Newcrest's own website. I suspect they attach a lower degree of importance to this news then they do to Havieron and Red Chris. You can see the high level of importance they attach to the fast-track development of Havieron

sell side weakened ...now equal both sides..only the German left on sell side

great buying again at lower levels..a sign of confidence

book looking better