Member Info for schlemiel

DQ - enjoyable read that fella

IMVHO, FOG's stake will be snapped up by a major player who unlike FOG has access to liquid investment capital to finance Beetaloo's development. I don't believe FOG itself will be taken out but that would leave FOG with a huge cash balance with a special dividend being paid to shareholders

capex at Beetaloo will be huge. there is no way FOG will be able to raise the funding for such a development

''SolGold offers the BEST TAKEOVER HOPE, however, with the latter two companies either too early or too small to interest the majors.''

The majors want good grade, size and long life copper-gold assets..SOLG is in the money..bollux to production, give us a premium based takeover. If our assets were in Australia then fine but they ain't and that leaves me nervous

“Because of the amount of supply that we think is coming and because of how the major multinationals are very interested in copper as a future metal, we actually think the equities will outperform the price in the next few years,” Ms Lloyd said. “There will be quite a lot of competition amongst the majors, Chinese companies and the mid-tiers for decent copper assets.”

What qualifies as decent varies on your risk tolerance, but pre-production London options include SolGold (SOLG), which also has major gold reserves at the Cascabel project, and further down the development path Castillo Copper (CCZ) and Phoenix Copper (PXC), although the usual caveats apply when investing in pre-revenue juniors. SolGold offers the best takeover hope, however, with the latter two companies either too early or too small to interest the majors. Taseko Mines (TKO) is a fairly new arrival already in production with growth prospects, although London is a low-volume secondary listing for the Canadian company.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2020/10/20/copper-miners-could-be-shooting-themselves-in-the-foot/

Macquarie base metals analyst Vivienne Lloyd said the sweet spot for market balance was around $6,000 (£4,615) a tonne, compared with the current price of over $6,700 a tonne.

The ‘balance’ price level would keep most mines generating cash while deterring capital allocations for more difficult new operations that need a higher price to justify investment. “Now that we have prices back up around $6,700 a tonne, I've had to put a lot of [the higher-cost mines] back into the model, assuming quite a lot of these things will be operational, at least in the next decade,” Ms Lloyd said.

This is factoring in mining’s continual push to maintain or increase production levels. Mr Glasenberg picked this as a major weakness for the industry, speaking at a Financial Times event last week. “If you take five or six of the last major projects... mines which were meant to cost $2bn cost $10bn,” he said, also flagging delays as common. “ You’ve killed the returns of your company,” he said.

Current major copper projects include Anglo American’s (AAL) Quellaveco mine in Peru and Rio Tinto’s (RIO) Oyu Tolgoi underground project. The former has so far kept to schedule as much as possible in a country heavily impacted by Covid-19, while the latter is much more of a cautionary tale, with massive cost overruns and a redesign now taking place after safety concerns were raised about the initial design.

For investors in copper companies this presents an interesting dilemma – could investing because of high copper prices only see you enter at the peak, given a strong price will see the company’s returns fall in the coming years? In the short term there is an obvious answer: enjoy the higher cash flow that comes from companies like Antofagasta (ANTO), Kaz Minerals (KAZ) and Central Asia Metals (CAML). Further out, equities have other drivers than the spot price.

cont.........

Investors Chronicle

October 20 2020

Copper miners could be shooting themselves in the foot

Alex Hamer

Glencore (GLEN) boss Ivan Glasenberg is used to making bold statements. But his admission last week that the mining industry had "generally got it wrong" when forecasting metals prices shed a light on how much of a punt even multibillion dollar projects are, with increased cash flow and net asset value forecasts arguably put before shareholder interests. With prices higher now, this could see another round of projects getting the green light based on unrealistic expectations.

Looking at the basics of price forecasting, it means working out how much will be coming out of the ground in five or 10 years and how much China will be buying. According to Macquarie Bank analysts, who put on a briefing for (virtual) LME Week, China now consumes around 60 per cent of all metals, so is by far the most important market when looking ahead.

There is a convincing case from copper bulls around its continued necessity as part of the global electrification push, greater general industrial demand, and a drop in global copper reserves. Many of the most important copper deposits were discovered more than 100 years ago.

So that is one basic part of the equation – higher demand alongside lower supply. But beyond the usual risk of strikes at mines, operational struggles and, of course, Covid-19 outbreaks, there is the short-term sugar rush of higher prices, as we’re seeing now, turning into additional (potentially excess) supply.

cont.........

''The initial mineralisation observed in the first drill hole, to date, illustrates the downward continuation of chalcopyrite mineralisation discovered in Cacharposa Creek and highlights the potential for higher copper and gold grades at depth''..............Garwin, 1 Oct 2020

How can they say HIGHER grades will be AT DEPTH if they don't know the initial grades anyway? Surely they must know the initial grades of the first drill for them to confidently and publicly state higher grades at depth

Higher is a relative term and relative to something that is lower than.....

zor - just posted..thanks fella

Discovery

Federal statute does not describe what constitutes a valuable mineral deposit, therefore the government has adopted the "prudent man rule." This rule determines value based on whether a person will consider investing time and money to develop a potentially viable mineral deposit. The U.S. Supreme Court approved this definition in 1905.

Since that time, the definition has evolved to include the need to show that the mineral could be mined, removed, and marketed at a profit. The U.S. Supreme Court concurred with this definition in 1968. The marketability test supplements the prudent man rule and considers deposit economics and market entry. The claimant is required to show a reasonable prospect of making a profit from the sale of minerals from a claim or a group of contiguous claims.

Department of the Interior (DOI) decisions require a discovery on each claim based on an actual physical exposure of the mineral deposit within the claim boundaries. The DOI's holding in Jefferson-Montana Copper Mines Co., 41 L.D. 321 (1912), established the full test for a lode claim:

"To constitute a valid discovery upon a lode claim, three elements are necessary:

1. There must be a vein or lode of quartz or other rock-in-place;

2. The quartz or other rock-in-place must carry gold or some other valuable mineral deposit;

3. The two preceding elements, when taken together, must be such that as to warrant a prudent man in the expenditure of his time and money in the effort to develop a valuable mine."

For traditional placer claims, in addition to proof of a discovery of a pay streak, each 10 acres must be shown to be mineral-in-character; that is, that there is a reasonable expectation of further economic mineral under these lands. An actual exposure of the valuable mineral deposit is not necessary.

https://www.blm.gov/programs/energy-and-minerals/mining-and-minerals/locatable-minerals/discovery

I'm a clueless idiot on this stuff but why is Mather labelling Porvenir as a 'discovery' of such vital importance? Is it because the term 'discovery' signifies a COMMERCIAL discovery? Is that the inference or should I say does the term 'discovery' actually mean 'commercial discovery'?

CD

GP down not NCM..cheers

thanks to JLondon...thanks to both -

''Solgold Presentation for Red Cloud:

https://www.redcloudfs.com/oktoberfest2020/

or https://www.solgold.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/SolGold_Corporate_Investor_OCT21.pdf

[Attriution & thanks to Zoros, London South East Solgold forum at 22:43, Sat,24.10.20]

--

The above is one of the most comprehensive data so far given out by Nick Mather, CEO of Solgold. No one managed to get the link prior to this.

Zoros: "Now this Red Cloud presentation, no one seems to have picked up on this.

I quoted NM regarding Porvenir and him saying it would go down in history..and now we know why: Take a LOOK AT PG 3 of the RedCloud presentation. On the right hand side is a pic of a sample of what they found at PDH-20-001 between 50 FEET below the surface all the way down- to wait for it..nearly 0.4 of a MILE DEEP!!! 6% chalcopyrite..!! This suddenly makes Alpala look like a side show.
And then, another nugget..Rio Amarillo= 30g/t in rock chip visible on the SURFACE..."

Sat, 24 Oct 2020 @23:05 post: Red Cloud Presentation on London South East Solgold forum. [3rd party post]

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/zoros/

JLondon's Comment:

Just before CGP share price took off so dramatically from my observation was a post on CEO.CA CGP to which Zoros replied "?". The poster gave the TWO Porvenir INTERSECTION LENGTHS AND TWO GRADES and mentioned in Nick backyard. So, looking at the lengths & depth data they may have got the rough cals? The RedCloud pg 3 pic showing the internal section of the Porvenir core was not marked for grade.

Now I know where they got the base data from. It was from the RedCloud presentation from Solgold and on page 3, right hand side it shows a drill core from Porvenir close up from the INSIDE of the core. It is not marked as to the depth this core was taken from. However, all the other cores were shown from the external and they were marked at what depth they were taken from.

Given that RedCloud is based in Canada I believe, the Canadians may have tuned in and saw it first as that*s the only new interview out at the time. Given that Canada is a mining co and may be nuanced in mining stocks, they were suitably interested in the new data and hence the volume was almost 4 times normal on Fri, 23 Oct 2020 with a rise of 20% in CGP stock at one stage. Other than that, there was no new news at that point. I noted the forum went quiet and then the burst of the stock climbing was the next event on Fri, 23 Oct 2020?''

-

Is Porvenir a high grade copper-gold T1 of a size larger than Alpala? Can't wait for those assays now!

as

The CGP issue needs to be tidied up NOW rather than allowing it to drag on for months and months until residual value is reached at $3.5m. SOLG can't wait that long and debt providers want clarity and certainty of ownership before throwing $3bn at a project like Alpala-Cascabel

This corporate log-jam as Cornford calls it is an oppressive legacy issue for SOLG. We need 100% ownership of ENSA which ain't gonna happen

So how does material value accrue to SOLG shareholders? A sale of the company to a major

It is my belief that has mining continues to grow in Ecuador, opposition to it from political and legal activists will also continue to grow and that brings with it risk for SOLG shareholders. I for one don't need that stress. Leave this to the majors

It's an online forum fella not a golf club!! Who gives a flying fart.

I care for one thing. Making as much money as possible to secure my and my family's financial future. All else is completely and utterly irrelevant

lutho - When it comes to gender identification fella, one must tread carefully these days or else certain cultural Marxist posters will denounce you in true Stalinesque style and off thee' go the Siberian gulag for either re-education according to prevailing progressive orthodoxy or failing that, removal from life

lutho - appreciated

cheers fella-felless

lutho - What does it say about SOLG? Don't tease the board, please.

thanks

S2

They don't enter 'circulation' whatever the hell that means. The stock is held by an investor and I assuming they won't be part of the free-float but held as an investment so you're taking crap mate

I suspect the market picked up on this fundraising a few weeks back when the price stepped back from its assault on 5p. From that perspective, the raise was discounted

Is this the final raise that will FINALLY take SEE towards positive cash-flow and self-sustenance?