Member Info for schiehallion

While we wait..

Just for curiosity and nothing else. Links from Google Maps and the Oriole website.

Mbe -

https://maps.app.goo.gl/g7mzAkLpFTBuW5am9

I think the pin is approximately the location of MBDD001 at MB01-S. The first hole drilled.

Compare with -

https://wp-orioleresources-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2025/01/13-01-25-MB01-S-drill-collar-plan-map_update-scaled.jpg

I was offline of Friday and it was painful to the see share price drop when I was catching up over the weekend. In my opinion the price action at the end of the week doesn’t look like a sell off by shareholders who have advance notice of bad news but rather the attrition of an extended period of more selling than buying, but who knows. My top up on Tuesday was also a good indication that a decline was imminent! I had hoped that the support (albeit quite weak and ill defined) around 0.24 would hold. But it didn’t!

People sell shares for all kinds of reasons. Boredom, frustration, want to use the funds for something else or simply protecting their capital if a share price declines. And we all know why Lanstead sell. We haven’t had any really big news for about a year and all the news in the meantime has just been stuff happening that was supposed to happen. The progress at Bibemi has been painfully slow and the results, so far, have been ok but not exciting. The AIM market is still in the doldrums and general market sentiment is poor, despite the FTSE hitting an all time high last week. My observation is that AIM shares don’t drift sideways when there is no buzz. They drift down. That’s what I think is happening here and we maybe just hit a tipping point for twitchy holders. I’m not aware of any material change and, as well documented over the last couple of days, Mbe is our next potential big news to create the buzz that we are all hoping for. I’m certainly disappointed with the share price but still holding, still optimistic and very much looking forward to the results from the 24 holes at Mbe. Of course, big news could come from many places…

I thought yesterday’s RNS was quite a curious jumble of updates. Timely and perhaps put together because the share price was testing the twelve month low. The market reaction was also quite curious. Only five days with higher trading volume since the BCM deals were finalised last January. The share price did recover slightly and practitioners of the dark arts can take comfort in support holding, a bullish engulfing daily candle and bullish divergence of the daily RSI. Having said that we are more than half way through trading today and less than a million shares have changed hands. Curious.

Personally, I would have preferred separate RNSs with a bit more information.

Nothing earth shattering at Bibemi but slowly moving forward. The first Phase 5 hole at the SW target looks pretty interesting - 1.20m at 13.60g/t Au @39m (The one phase 4 hole found 1m @ 6.52g/t Au). I’m excited to find out what the other 7 holes have uncovered. Some commentary on visual indications would have been appreciated, but it’s all about the results I suppose.

Mbe is the jewel in the crown and this update seemed quite understated. Three ~300 metre holes already drilled and samples from two off to the lab. Again, some more commentary would have been nice. I had presumed (hoped) that the first hole’s core samples were already sent to the lab, but who knows - I’d certainly like to.

Good to hear that things are actually progressing with Managem at Senala. Next month we will already be a third of the way through the second, three year, term of the licence agreement so hopefully they do actually get a shoogle on. While I see the appeal of retaining an interest in a jurisdiction outside Cameroon, personally, I would prefer that this asset was monetised. When the Lanstead deal expires in the autumn we won’t have any regular income so if we could get a fair value for our stake here then that could well come in handy. I wouldn’t like to see the company spending lots of money here - it might be prospective but there’s plenty going on in Cameroon. Will be interesting to see what the new joint venture partnership agreement looks like. Free carry would be nice!

I think I’d subconsciously written off the Muratdere copper mine. The EIA approval is great surprise. And great that they are actively discussing a sale with more than one ‘interested’ party. I’ve no clue but, hopefully the forestry permit is more of a formality and will get approved soon. Cash boost would be nice.

Anyway, lots of news and good to hear about what is happening behind the scenes and the progress being made. I bought some more shares yesterday morning.

I’ve found the Bibemi reporting hard to follow. There were originally 62 (37 + 25) holes planned but this may have changed slightly.

In the RNS on 14/10/24 31 holes were reportedly completed - at the MRE I think. The following RNS states that a further 10 holes are planned there so that’s a total of 41, which is 4 more than originally headlined.

The RNS on 14/110/24 says that 18 holes are planned at the NE target and RNS of 28/11/24 says 8 holes planned at the SW target. So, 26 in total whereas 25 were originally headlined. Having said that the later RNS suggests that at the NE target 6 holes have been reported, 8 results are awaited and 2 holes are still planned (and being relocated) - which is 16 and not the 18 of the earlier RNS. Like I say hard to follow.

Anyway, as of 28 November 8 results were pending (NE) and (about!) a further 20 holes to be drilled. So lots of news to come.

As discussed many times on this forum, most of the directors are pretty well invested so if there have been delays then I’m sure they are as frustrated as we are and are hopefully doing everything they can to move things along.

If they are just managing news flow (in so far as they are allowed to) then I’m sure they are doing so in our best interest.

I’ve got the 20 day VWAP at 0.262 today so still above the Lanstead benchmark price. Falling fast though. I think the monthly settlement date is on, or around, the 18th so we could really do with a bump before then.

It’s 4 weeks today since completion of the first hole at Mbe was reported so hopefully we will see the results from Intertek soon - it was long core though so may take longer that we would like to sort samples, prepare and analyse. God willing the results, when they come, will be something that the market likes.

Yep, I think it’s a different rig at Mbe too. Looks new or fresh from the refurb shop…

https://x.com/OrioleResources/status/1857458265585496492

This is the Bibemi one...

https://x.com/OrioleResources/status/1800441250077647224

I’m hoping they move the Bibemi rig and crew down to Mbe when they're done. Get both truth machines turning so we get results sooner. I’d be surprised if this isn’t the plan so that we can a better return from Lanstead…. if the results warrant an increased market cap.

I’m heavily invested in Oriole and I sincerely hope that Putin/Russia do not prevail with their conquest in Ukraine. Regardless of what that means for Oriole and the price of gold.

Slowly slowly catchy monkey…

If it’s not big news the current market is not interested but it’s good to see some positive indications at the front end of the exploration pipeline.

I think it will take a blockbuster RNS to move the share price out of its current range and hopefully the incremental value of all the other recent news will be recognised.

The final Mbe trenching results are expected ‘early Q4/24’ so should be imminent and the next batch of Bibemi drilling results in the next few weeks - then every month or so until completion. Lots going on and lots of news to come.

I picked up some more shares this morning too. Seemed like a good opportunity to top up, but time will tell.

Hopefully the share price won’t drift much lower. The 20 day moving average is still above 0.3p but it would be good to get some positive news to stop it moving towards the Lanstead agreement benchmark price. As someone else just noted the Eastern CLP trenching and first batch of Bibemi Phase 5 drilling results should be released in the next month or so. As well as all the other stuff that could drop at any time.

We are half way through the Lanstead agreement and I estimate that the company has received around £780k from the first 11 monthly payments. That doesn’t seem too bad given the share price has been quite disappointing (especially pre-BCM) and we have good reasons to anticipate that it will be higher over the next 12 months. The share price closed at 0.154p the day before the Lanstead agreement was announced so if they had done a placing at that time at, perhaps optimistically, a 20% discount, then they would probably only have raised around £1M after expenses…if they had issued the same number of new shares. So, working out quite well in my opinion.

I’m excited about the inclined holes that are being drilled at the moment but that’s all a bit down the line..

I assume that the purported rumour is that the new CEO is considering ORR buying back Lanstead’s shares rather than personally doing so - I’m not sure the CEO of a junior explorer would have a spare £2M, but who knows.

Personally, I don’t think that ORR buying back the outstanding Lanstead shares would be a positive move.

At, and above, the current share price the deal makes sense and provides a very useful income stream for an exploration company that doesn’t currently generate any income.

I’d rather that the company used the BCM lump sums for exploration rather than buying the Lanstead shares and funding company day to day business costs instead.

Also, I suspect that given the circumstances when the deal was drawn up that any early exit clause will be rather unfavourable for ORR. If there is no exit clause and ORR were to somehow renege regardless then that wouldn’t be great for the reputation of a company actively seeking other business agreements.

If ORR were to (somehow?) buy Lanstead’s shares and sell them down in a similar way then they would benefit from the full share price and raise more than the current agreement. But then the drip of sales would continue - if circa 2M a day makes a significant impact. Or, the shares just bought and cancelled to, potentially, increase the share price around 17% - but why loose income stream for that?

I think the problem with the Lanstead deal is not the Lanstead deal but the perception and constant negativity. If a company signs up to a Lanstead agreement then they MUST deliver news that will increase their market value. If they don’t then Lanstead will suck the life out of them - the infamous death spiral. Most AIM companies fail to deliver. Their shareholders will blame Lanstead and Lanstead has become synonymous with failure. It’s not Lanstead’s fault. It’s the fault of the company and it’s directors (and sometimes the card’s dealt by lady luck). The ORR team managed to pull off the BCM deal(s) and the associated funding and exploration programs are transformational and look set to make the agreement successful.

I want news - which will come when it comes. Would be good to get confirmation that the Bibemi drilling program has actually begun and to see Mr Rosser buying in…. even if it’s not 662M shares.

Interesting stuff Catbert. To get an idea of what we can expect I decided to have a quick look at one of the ‘example’ companies that Lanstead name on their FAQ page to see how they notified during that agreement - AFC Energy.

The original placing was for £2.2M and AFC received a total of £4.7M in payments, so worked out well for them. The share price dropped 26% to10p the day the deal was announced on 8 October 2014. Nine months later the share price hit a peak on 60.2p and when the deal ended in April 2016 the price was 14.82p. Anyway, TR1s / notifications as follows -

1) Initial notification of holdings (20/10/14): 23,100,000 shares, 8.058%

2) TR1 (7/4/15): 19,311,000 shares, 6.6888% (crossed 8 & 7%)

3) TR1 (7/10/15): 11,141,182 shares, 3.8447% (crossed 6, 5 & 4%)

4) TR1 (23/12/15): 9,031,193 shares, 2.9% (crossed 3%)

So, after the initial notification of holdings they notified a further 3 times during the 18 month agreement - often have already crossed numerous 1% thresholds. I’ve got no idea if this meets the applicable rules or not but I’d be surprised if Lanstead didn’t adhere to at least the minimum requirements.

Something I found quite interesting (other than that Roman Abramovich owned about 13% of the company at the time) was the sell down rate. The sell down rate between the second and third notification was about double the rate from the first (initial) to the second. That was also when the SP was the highest. The sell rate drops back a bit between the last two notifications.

I just glanced at IMM, the other AIM company mentioned. They seem to be on their second Lanstead deal which started around the same time as ours and also had their last notification on 28 December.

L‘m also now fairly comfortable with the Lanstead deal, especially when reflecting on where we are now and where we were when it was arranged. Without making any judgement on how the company got there, the situation early last autumn was pretty grim. Funds dwindling despite Eileen’s lifeline, exploration grinding to a halt, director salary sacrifices, no sign of the JVs and project level funding that had provided some optimism in the spring… other than the Canadian investment bank circling overhead looking for a bargain. A conventional placing would likely have been at a terrible discount, and rumours were that the company had tried and failed to arrange one. Potential partners no doubt concerned about topco funding. So, a deal was done. Substantial dilution and a long term net seller (of course Lanstead could, like most of us, have become increasing upbeat about the ORR story and may hold some of their shares for a longer term). But the company survived, which it might not have done, and is a big step closer to unlocking potential value, which could be considerable. Good news was required to make the deal work and the good news flow has begun. The higher the share price goes the better the deal is for Oriole, Lanstead… and us. My opinion anyway.

Todays RNS was a great read and hopefully we’ll get some price moving news soon.

With regards to Lanstead I think my post yesterday was too rambling to make my point - ORR told us that Lanstead’s interests are aligned with theirs, and ours. I’ve recently spent quite a bit of time looking at this and as far as I can make out that is true and there isn’t an incentive for them to suppress the share price. The agreement is stacked in their favour and the higher the share price the more money they can make, even after making the associated higher monthly payment to ORR. They always have to keep enough shares to cover future monthly payments, so can't get too far ahead of themselves with selling down their holding. Of course they are a large net seller which is a drag, especially if they sell when buying volume is low, but I’m now fairly sure they’re not deliberately holding the share price back. Can’t explain the recent share price movement though but I suspects its just general market malaise, lack of substantial news and MMs doing what MMs do etc. Just my view and Lanstead could indeed be the villain.

From the ‘Lanstead will declare every 1%’ interview on the 1st August -

Tim Blythe: ‘… can Lanstead actually benefit though by the share price being lower than the benchmark price rather than going higher?’

Bob Smeeton: ‘Lanstead make more money the higher the share price is. They’ve got no incentive at all for the share price to decline so they very much see themselves as aligned with the long term shareholders. They will do well when Oriole does well and Oriole will receive more money should the share price do well…’

I’ve tried to do some modelling to see how the deal could work for Lanstead. Obviously, I have no idea what Lanstead are doing but I have made the following assumptions: Lanstead sell an equal amount of their allotted shares every day for the 24 month duration of the agreement. Considering the subscription shares and the value payment shares and assuming 252 trading days each year (21 per month) then that’s pretty much £2M shares to be sold each day, as estimated previously by others. I’ve also assumed that the average sale price for these shares in the 21 days leading up to each settlement day is the same as the 20 day VWAP on the settlement day. Ignoring fees or any other costs then -

At benchmark price 0.2533p:

Share sales (21 trading dates x 2M): £106,386

Payment to ORR: £73,625

Lanstead profit: £32,761

At 50% benchmark price 012665p

Share sales: £53,193

Payment to ORR: £36,812.50

Lanstead profit: £16,380.50

At 200% benchmark price 0.5066p:

Share sales: £212,772

Payment to ORR: £147,250

Lanstead profit: £65,522

So, based on my assumptions, Lanstead monthly profit is £32,721 at benchmark price and, like the monthly payments to ORR, that figure increases / decreases with percentage change from the benchmark price.

I adjusted my model to see what the minimum number of sales Lanstead would have to make to cover the monthly payments to ORR. With my other assumptions remaining the same then they would have to sell around 1.384M shares each day for this. Gives an idea of how many shares that they have to retain to cover future payments and how many that they could sell whenever it suits them.

I had previously thought that they might try and manipulate they price to maximise their revenue from share sales and minimise monthly payments. I’m not sure that could be practically achieved or even worthwhile.

Perhaps Lanstead and our interests are well aligned. All we know is that by 28 December they had sold 202.4M shares. Equivalent of 2.024M per trading day up to that point (100 trading days) which is in line with my model.

The above is based on my understanding, is unchecked and could be nonsense.

@cekim, I don’t have the brains to work it out but I use tradingview which has a nice vwap indicator which I’ve been using to update a spreadsheet. I think Oriole should have received around £395k from Lanstead so far. I’m assuming that the settlement date is on the 18th of the month and have used the closing 20 day vwap from the previous trading day -

18 Sep - £32,380 (RNS 29/9 gives first payment as £0.03M - so correct ball park))

18 Oct - £26,014

18 Nov - £24,473

18 Dec - £48,860

18 Jan - £65,690

18 Feb - £112,777

18 Mar - £84,583

There should be some info in the final results which I’m hoping will be released this week.

I thought the reaction to the two 7.5M trades yesterday was odd. Looked like buys but smelled like sells.

Need some news to get things moving again and the volume to soak up any Lanstead sells.

Bibemi drilling was supposed to start during Q1 so hopefully hear about that soon. Also, the final results could be released anytime. Might not include anything new but could have some clues about what Lanstead have been up to - although if ORR have been updated then they should already have issued a holdings RNS. Should be an incentive for them to chase them up anyway. The last two final results were released on the 9th March and year before was on the 24th.

I agree that Lanstead’s average sales volume will probably be fairly steady over the duration of the agreement. Although, as mentioned before, I also think they may play tunes with the daily / shorter term volumes. The RNS on 28 December, referred to in the post below, shows they sold around 20% of their shares after about 20% of the agreement duration.

They could end up exposed if they got too far ahead of themselves with their sales. If our wildest hopes and dreams come true, and the share price becomes multiples rather than fractions of a penny, then Lanstead would be in a spot of bother if they hadn’t retained sufficient shares to sell at these prices to cover the remaining monthly payments, which would be at a significant premium to the baseline. So, I think they have to pace themselves which means they will remain a drag until the end of the agreement. My thoughts and understanding anyway.

Would be good to get an update and if Bob was expecting one after every 1% then I hope he is chasing them up.

… some further thoughts on Lanstead. One thing I’m sure about is that Lanstead are only interested in Lanstead. I expect they will have a smart strategy to maximise their revenue from share sales and minimise the monthly payments to ORR. As per my previous message, I would surmise that they will sell heavily, and carefully, into any post news share price spike (more than 1.2 billion shares changed hands in the three trading days between 19th and 23rd January) and when the price and volume begin to fade they may be tempted to help encourage the price decline and reduce their sales until the next price spike, to try and minimise the monthly payments to ORR. I’m not sure how much Lanstead ever cared about the health of ORR’s finances but now that BCM are onboard, and paid up, I don’t think this will be much of a consideration for them.

We know from the Lanstead deal RNS (1/8/23) that the monthly payments are based on the average VWAP over the 20 days preceding the monthly settlement date. With the £73,625 monthly payment pro rata’d up or down based on the % deviation from the benchmark share price of 0.2533p.

I think the settlement dates are around the 18th of the month. I can’t find this documented anywhere but the above RNS states that the settlements commence approx 6 weeks after admission of the new shares which I think occurred on 7 August. February will have been the first time that the VWAP20 was above the benchmark price on a settlement day - it was 0.377p based on closing prices and using a TV indicator (actually on the 19th as the 18th was a Sunday). This will have been the first time that ORR have made money, at Lanstead’s expense. Based on this the payment would have been about £109,580 - a premium of £35,955. (Lanstead made money from all the previous payments which were are a discount).

So, let’s say the VWAP20 reduces to 0.2533 on the next settlement date. That would mean that Lanstead would save £35,955, compared to February. If it’s less than 0.2533 then Lanstead will actually make money (again). I see that as an incentive for Lanstead to encourage a drifting share price to move further down and then wait for the next spike to ramp up selling again. Of course they will have to sell some shares to do that and they will be sold at a discount to the prices that we hope to see in the not too distant future. So, there’s a balance to be struck but I’m sure they have the brainpower and skills to do it. This would make the share pice more choppy than otherwise but hey ho the fundamentals remain so in the medium / long term this makes no odds.

Just my thoughts and Lanstead may have absolutely nothing to do with the recent share price movement.

Hello fellow LTHs. I’ve held ORR shares since spring 2021 - got caught in the bear trap that saw the price recover to 1.2p after the spike to almost 2p. I averaged down after Eileen Carr’s large subscription, then some more just above last years lows and more again after the BCM deals were announced. Now have a reasonable profit. I have a core holding that I intend to retain as long as my nerves permit and some short / medium term holdings that I will probably offload at the next opportunity. I don’t buy AIM shares anymore. This is now my only one and will be my last.

Like most holders I had my concerns about the Lanstead agreement - probably amplified by all the ‘death spiral’ chat. But at the moment it appears to have been a good call during a difficult time for the company and market. It perhaps saved the company.

Anyway, the recent share price decline made me reflect on the agreement and Lanstead’s motivations. As a significant holder and seller its easy for Lanstead to manipulate the share price downwards, if they want to. They can sell into buying volume which should be fairly share price neutral or they can dump into low buying volume which you would expect to drop the share price. As I understand it, a high share price suits Lanstead when they are selling shares and a low share price suits them when the repayments to ORR are calculated.

As I see it there is no ‘expected’ news for the next few months that will significantly increase the share price. Bibemi drilling results 3 months or so after they start drilling - will hopefully be big when it lands, but is a while away. Looks like the next 6 months or so will be slow at Mbe with only soil sampling and trenching. So, it makes sense for Landstead to bring the price down with minimal, but clumsy, selling to reduce their payments to ORR for the foreseeable.

Of course there’s plenty of other potential news that could shake things up in the meantime -

Senala license renewal / deal with Managem.

Bibemi exploitation licence - maybe not that price moving.

Other CLP JV’s

Wapouze limestone (cement) exploration / partnerships

Ndom & Gamboukou lithium exploration / partnerships

Legacy assets - well overdue news about the Muratdere EIA. Elephant Oil IPO - I’ve lost track with that one.

As someone has already mentioned today, it would be good to get another TR1 and see where Lanstead are with their holding.

Just my thoughts and ramblings. Possibly nonsense.