Member Info for ScandiExpat

For what its worth my main Bank here in Switzerland, Bank Vontobel, think rates will top out in Q4 due to mild recession then followed by more accommodating rate scenario in 2024. They have been pretty good on bonds, shares i.e. macro but globally rather than UK. But as I worked in markets for 30 years....nobody knows.

Russia/Ukraine is looking worse by the week and with it oil/gas...

When I got in my allocation was exactly the right size. Now I am pretty "underweight"... (that was a joke). In retrospect I allocated too much to the UK REIT sector before interest rates started to rise and, now living abroad, I really did not fully understand the cost of net zero, vertically, on this sector. I am not moving new money into the UK as my general outlook on the UK is pretty poor. High taxes, massive central planning (net zero), other regulations in combination with the political outlook may be a hindrance for broad economic prosperity in the UK for years to come. Dividends are still attractive but it feels better to take those and invest in international index funds diversifying away from the UK.

Zac, I can attest to your posting. My boring old trackers have done quite well globally vs. my portfolio of UK REITS have tanked (same in the US). AEWU is the one exception where I am only slightly down. Dividends have been ok across the board, which is something that is important to me right now, but we are in a commercial real estate downturn post covid so it may take years to recover the capital if one, like me, got in at the unattractive levels.. On top of that of course is the rapid rise of interest rates which has severely impacted almost all funds with strong distribution philosophies.

Last summer, on one of the quarterly calls (which I really like), I asked how AEWU's policies would evolve on ESG as I had been purging my portfolio as much as possible of companies/funds that adopt ESG policies. The answer I got from the deputy PM was that it is very important to incorporate ESG because it was very warm in London.

Apart from the naive, but rather cute reply, one year on ESG is collapsing as the fraud it is. Multiple states in the US have pulled billions from ESG managers/ESG funds forcing Vanguard and Blackrock to retract both in practise and in narrative. Jamie Dimon, Warren Buffet and Elon Musk agree ESG is b/s (essentially) and last week S/P 500 dropped the ESG scale:

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/sp-global-drops-esg-alphanumeric-scale-2023-08-08/

My remaining ESG exposure is essentially with three UK REITs one of which is AEWU. While I am aware there are UK laws on net zero that needs to be followed for the time being, I am interested in hearing from AEWU how they evaluate this situation, how they can minimise exposure to forced ESG investment decisions within the framework of UK laws and regulations and how they may be preparing for the day net zero may potentially be abandoned in the UK.

I like AEWU and while I was inclined to reduce exposure a year ago, if the collapse of ESG is finally coming to Europe (perhaps questionable at this time) I may be inclined to double my AEWU position if we can get some thoughtful strategic answers on the next call. That's it.

i like to be optimistic but robleo is striking a relevant point. while there are many reasons to be optimistic the west is presently going backwards in my view. the "degrowth" agenda is in action (officially and unofficially), central planning in the form of esg is coming out of brussels, westminster and d.c. and ****** dei initiatives are destroying education, tolerance, free speech and hard fought for meritocracy. essentially most of the pillars that made the west so successful are under attack, by ourselves.

obviously bad things will happen in such a world, such as wars, mini-tyranny such as cancelations, firings and debanking, but most of all the basic freedoms are being eroded while governments are getting bigger and more intrusive. it is hard to see equity returns and general investment returns improving in such a market which is fraught with risks.

nobody knows what ai will do but almost all previous inventions have had pro and cons. the main issue may be if the public is smart enough to vote in governments and parliaments that create laws limiting the power of governments so that ai is constrained to mostly positive practical use, rather than destructive 1984 style tyranny.

so far the twitter files and the facebook revelations have shown that governments and the administrative state cannot be trusted using electronic means for speech or information but they chose to use the tax payers money to censor us, to brainwash us and to lie to us creating more power to them and their (private) co-funders.

MANY THANKS!

Many thanks!

If there is a positive correlation about this thread's understanding of international politics and understanding of LGEN, it may be a good idea to ignore the blog. I will check back in September.

Doubt it. For 5 years I've said I will get out at 70P. I am clearly an idiot but by now it has to be said that LBG management is unusually incompetent given the value and potential of the franchise. Equally I had trusted the Tory Government would take up the massive opportunities being out of the EU hell hole could bring with tax cuts , deregulation and fracking. That didn't happen either. Instead they have followed the same crushing energy polices that the EU is leading to war, poverty and de-industrialisation. The West is not in good shape at the moment. Just look at that picture from the G7...

The LLOY Directors Deals on this site doesn't seem to be properly updated. Any idea about this and where can I possibly go to see the transactions? MANY THANKS!

As I have mentioned many times on this board, the cash generating capabilities of LBG are amazing ( I Worked there).
It is all about the balance sheet. A child could do it. But for the share price to recover/accelerate there has to be a proper belief that the company can grow. And they neither have the strategy, the people or the culture to do that.
Lloyds is a perfect ESG company. When the new CEO joined he posted pictures of his cycling. That will tell you everything.

SD is 100% right. Pretty embarrising posts here...

I do agree with SD. Have been through three situations like this but with pretty well managed venture capital trusts which were obviously created with a different purpose and life expectancy. I would not buy more at this stage but place my bet that the exit will be properly managed while dividends be paid out...

https://www.theaic.co.uk/companydata/henderson-far-east-income/announcements/399671

The seemingly perpetual and massive gap between analysts targets and the actual share price can only be explained by incompetence. I was there (on MD level) for more than five years and watched them systematically dismantle meritocracy in favour of an intense focus on race and gender. The non-client focused culture was already broken before this. It felt like working for the Government i.e. the exact opposite of what I was used to for many years on Wall Street. Besides, with their limited product range and 99% focus on the UK, their ability to grow is very limited. I still have lots of deferred compensation shares that are not vested and every program is under water. This is not a corporation hungry for profits, it is a woke playdate for lazy people that should not be in business.

I am more than vaguely interested. Yield is 75% of the reason I am in this stock.

Guitar, you are a balanced commentator. Read you with pleasure.

Guitar, I understand this viewpoint. The reason I am against Government (the UN actually) getting involved is that 1. It is socialism messing with free market capitalism and I am not aware of a socialist society that has ever looked after its natural resources or its people. and 2. There is a strong positive correlation between economic wealth and social benefits including less pollution and preservation of nature.
Western societies are now making energy extremely expensive which leads to richer totalitarian societies (Russia, Saudi, Iran) and moves manufacturing and wealth to China (Communist). None of these four nations gives one iota about about social justice, pollution or "global warming". We are shooting ourselves in the foot. Today EU signed off on a new "climate bill" which will make things much worse for poor people in Europe and will weaken Western democracies. That's not great for the planet. In the US I support/invest in Strive's ETF's which proactively is trying to fight ESG. I am not aware of similar efforts in Europe...

Thanks! One major concern I have with my UK and EU investments is the focus on ESG well aware that the more regulation, taxes, energy hostility and other "well meaning" initiatives, investor returns will be lower, society hence poorer and ultimately social benefits will be lower. For instance "progressive" states in the US follow this model and have become un-investable. In California, the epicentre of homelessness, modular homes would be fantastic but it is just too expensive because of extreme regulation, high taxes and high energy costs. Even these modular homes built in the UK are clearly too expensive... I have no problem LGEN investing in a portfolio of this type assuming it is ultimately for investor benefit, not "charity" fitting into an ESG presentation.

Thanks!
I worry about the ESG focus. I have been moving my portfolio out of companies that focus on that.
Regional REIT's share price is down 10% YTD, -38% one year and -34% two years so perhaps they should worry more about SHAREHOLDER VALUE! Making shareholders poor while making "communities" or overzealous builders rich is not a sustainable business model. At least not in a free market system.