Member Info for Sanyo86

The Dividend Strategy Makes It Even Clearer

Historically, TUI paid out 30–50% of profits as dividends.

Now they pay out 8%:

0.10

 EUR dividend

/

1.25

 EUR EPS

≈

8

%

If they had stuck to their old payout ratio, the dividend would be 0.50–0.70 EUR per share.

Does anyone seriously think the stock would still be at 8 EUR with that kind of dividend? I don’t.

To me, it looks like management is deliberately keeping the price down — not because the business is weak, but because they don’t want to risk losing their “big investor” if the sanctions situation changes.

My Conclusion

After six years, participating in every rights issue, and sacrificing other great investments, I’ve come to this view:

TUI’s share price is influenced far more by ownership structure and geopolitical risk than by the balance sheet or income statement.

And that’s why we’re stuck at these levels.

Mike,my friend.

I´m a man of my word, when you have plans to visit Sweden just give me a headsup it is on me.

My TUI Story After 6 Years – And Why I Think the Share Price Is Being Held Down

I’ve been invested in TUI for six years now, and I want to share my perspective — partly to vent, partly to hear what others think. My disappointment comes from several different angles, even though I actually understand why the management acts the way they do and why the share price sits where it is. I also want to explain how I see the “Russian shareholder factor” playing into all of this.

How I Ended Up Here

I first bought TUI in March 2020, right after the pandemic crash. Back then, you basically made money on anything you bought. What destroyed my capital wasn’t TUI itself, but the worst investment decision I ever made: continuing to follow TUI through every single rights issue.

I believed in the company — and still do — but to avoid dilution, I had to sell other holdings at ridiculous prices. Looking at where those stocks trade today, it hurts even more.

For example:

I had a big position in Scandic Hotels, bought at 24 SEK. I’m a long‑term holder, so I expected it to recover toward 80 SEK with dividends returning — and that’s exactly what happened.

I did the same with Royal Caribbean Cruises, buying heavily in 2021–2022 at 30–40 USD. That position also turned out great.

But TUI’s repeated rights issues drained my liquidity. To keep up, I had to sacrifice positions that ended up performing extremely well. I kept telling myself TUI would recover just like the others. And here we are today.

Where I Stand Now

I’m sitting on a share price of 7.21 EUR after six years.

What I have left is:

a bit of downside cushion

and a dividend payout roughly equal to a month’s salary (coming tomorrow)

But emotionally, I feel like I completely messed up by believing TUI would rebound the same way Scandic and RCL did.

And the thing is — TUI has recovered operationally. Earnings are back to pre‑pandemic levels. Debt is higher, yes, but not to the extent that the stock should be stuck at 7–8 EUR when it used to trade at 20–50 EUR.

The Russian Shareholder Factor

Here’s where I think many people underestimate the situation.

The former major shareholder — the “Russian” — once owned 40% of TUI.

Now he owns 10%, because sanctions prevented him from participating in the capital increases.

This means:

His average price is likely 80–100 EUR.

He still holds 10% of all shares.

If sanctions are lifted and the share price is high, there’s a real risk he could dump his entire stake on the market.

And if 10% of all outstanding shares suddenly hit the sell side, the price would collapse.

The higher the share price is at that moment, the bigger the shock.

So yes — I believe management has a strong incentive to keep the share price low and stable until this geopolitical uncertainty is resolved.

The Dividend Strategy Makes It

Hi Mike, nice to have you back even though I honestly wish you still owned that crappy stock — the one where the company’s results have absolutely nothing to do with the share price, and neither do the loans, no matter how they report them to mislead people. Try finding the company’s total debt, short‑term or long‑term — suddenly it’s something completely different from what you’d expect based on previous reports, haha.

Can any of you find a single quarterly report in the last five years where TUI’s share price actually ended the day up? If you do, I promise that if you come to Sweden, your hotel and dinner are on me. Just let me know when you find a report day where the stock closed in the green.

So how is it possible that a company earning the same amount of money — or even more — with higher revenue, and let’s say double the total debt compared to before the pandemic, and with the same number of shares (actually fewer than before the pandemic), is still trading 400% lower than it used to? Why did the company change its dividend policy? Didn’t they used to pay out 30–50% of earnings per share? Why are they paying out 8% now?

That is: €1.25 earnings per share / €0.10 dividend = 0.08 = 8%.

What other company pays out only 8% of its earnings? This can only mean they want disappointed shareholders. And I understand everyone who sells their shares.

I’ve made up my mind — I’m going to follow this rigged stock all the way to bankruptcy. I want proof, and I’ve already gotten proof, that the share price has nothing to do with earnings, debt, or reports. Compare the numbers, go through the reports if you haven’t been around the last five years. The share price was higher when nobody was traveling than it is now.

As Mr. Bean would say — MAGIC!

For me, the behavior of TUI’s share price is increasingly difficult to rationalize. Every major company in the travel, hotel, and cruise sector has returned to — or surpassed — pre‑pandemic valuation levels. Their financial recovery has been reflected in their share prices, exactly as one would expect in an efficient market. All except TUI.

Since my first purchase in March 2020, and after roughly twenty quarterly reports, TUI has not finished a single reporting day in positive territory. Even record results fail to generate upward momentum. The numbers simply do not justify the persistent downward pressure. TUI has always carried debt, and its current debt level is manageable. Nothing in the financials explains this pattern.

The only coherent explanation is strategic: either management, or the Russian shareholder who still owns around 10%, benefits from a suppressed share price. Because he was excluded from the capital increases, his stake has been diluted, and his historical average purchase price remains far above current levels. A rapid recovery to 30–40 euros — the pre‑pandemic range — would not help him reduce his average, even if he were to rebuild his former 40% position. A low valuation, however, does.

Recent behavior reinforces this interpretation. Heavy selling pressure appears even days before the dividend, and the revised dividend policy — now distributing barely 8% of earnings instead of the historical 30–50% — clearly disadvantages shareholders. Had the old policy remained, the upcoming payout would have been around 0.50 euros per share, which would naturally have supported the stock price. Instead, the company opts for a symbolic 0.10 euros.

All of this suggests that shareholder value is not the current priority. The share price will likely remain constrained until sanctions are lifted for the major shareholder or until a new strategic investor enters. Until then, the pattern is consistent: strong results are met with selling, and the stock is prevented from recovering too quickly.

For me it is unexplainable how the SP can go down today.If we compare al of the figures year to year this anual rapport is fantastic. I'm Especially referring to the nett debt 1.6B euros to 1.3B. Pre covid we had 1.1 B, ! So I we compare Net debt of 1.3B/ 1.47 B EBIDA that is 0.88 compared to 2029 and 1.01 wich means that Tui ags finances are a lot better than 2019. Just can't understand it, the figures does not seem to matter to this SP

The only little disappointment to me is a div. I thought it would be between 20-25 % based on the EPS but instead vi get 7.5% or 0.10/Share

Just can't understand the SP

5. Path to Price Ricovery

The stockk is financilly undervalutaded (trading at P/E 6.5x) given it current EPS. This Price will increase significantly when the P/E multiple expends, wich is expected to bi triggered by:

* The dividend announcement (exp Dec 10)

The introduction od divided (expected to be a resposible 20 -30% payout ratio) signals to the market that the financial tisk is manageable, justifying a move from 6.5x (P/E) towards 10x to 12x (P/E)

*Price petential

A move to a 12x P/E would push the share price into the 15 ~16 Euro/ share, range, representing a substantial gain, even before Mordashovissue is fully resolved.

Just wanted to share it with you guys.

Please excuse my gramatical misspelling. I am typing from my phone, since I not able to attach the answer.

Good luck on wednesday, Im sure it will be a great raport and divi news.

Im gonna keep my stocks for a long long time!

/Sanyo

Salute to Mike, hi all!

The year anual rapport is soon here,

I hade som Boring time over and asked my "new best friend" a question. And just wanted to share it whit you.

The Question: WHY HAS TUI´S STOCK FAILD TO RECEOVER LIKE COMPETITORS (Carnival, Royal C. Scandic H,) Dispite strong operational results?

The descussion concluedes that the low stoc price is due to a pemanent collaps in valuation (P/E ratio), driven by three specific factors that peers motley avoided.

1. The fundemental contradiction os that TUI is a operationally helthier than befor the pandimec, yet the market values its profits at a fraction of the former price.

Thui Earnings per share

P/E Multiplaier (Valuation) 42x (2019) 6.5 (2024)

Stock Price (adjusted) 30 E (2019) 8.24 E (2024)

Adjusted EBIT 839 Milion E (2019) 1.46 B (2024)

The stock price is low becuse the market now prices Tuis high profits at an extreamly low multiple (6.5x) due to precived risk.

2. Debt vs. Dilibution

Tui rescu plan fundemetaly differed from its US -listed peers, leading to a permanent value reset.

*Tuis Solution (Dikution)

Tui Was reliant on German govermant aid (KfW/WSF). To repay this gov. debt, tui was forced to issue massive amounts of (new shares) to the market at discounted prices. This resulted inthe severe dilution of existin shareholders, resetting the share value lower.

Competitots Solution (Debt)

Carnival and Royal raised money mainly throe high - intrest debt/bonds, avoidnig the same scale od equity dilution. The market tolerated their increased debt becuse they retained a higher equitybase.

3 The reason for Low P/E

The market applies the P/E of 6.5 beacuse the companys financial structure is frigale.

*High intrest Costs. While net debt (~1.64 Billion) is only marginaly higher than 2019 (~1.12 Billion), The Annual Interest Expensehas increased by 185% from (~173 m to ~493m) This costs eats deeply into Net Profit (EPS).

* Low Equaty Ratio (Soliditet): The equaty ratio has collapsed from ~25% to ~10.2. The market interprets this low buffer as "Exentential Risk" in the event of next recesion.

4. The Ovehang Mordsahov Factor (interesting)

The 11% stake held by sanctioned Alexey Mordashov creates significant geopolitical uncertinty, acting as a policical celing on the stock price.

* The cost of Suvevival: Mordashov, unable to paricipate in capital raises due to sancitions, sawhis stake diluted from ~31% to ~11%. He effectively bore the largest relative cost of Tuis rescue.

*High GAV: His remaining shares were acquired at a high price, estimated to be around 140 euro to 180 euro (post-split adjusted GAV). It is highly unlikely he would voluntarily sell at the current price of ~8.24 euro.

* The market fears he might be forced to sell by sancion authorities (EU/Germany) as a condition for resolution. This risk of this massive supply of shares hitting the market is what supresses the P/E ratio.!

Salute to Mike, hi all!

The year anual rapport is soon here,

I hade som Boring time over and asked my "new best friend" a question. And just wanted to share it whit you.

The Question: WHY HAS TUI´S STOCK FAILD TO RECEOVER LIKE COMPETITORS (Carnival, Royal C. Scandic H,) Dispite strong operational results?

The descussion concluedes that the low stoc price is due to a pemanent collaps in valuation (P/E ratio), driven by three specific factors that peers motley avoided.

1. The fundemental contradiction os that TUI is a operationally helthier than befor the pandimec, yet the market values its profits at a fraction of the former price.

Thui Earnings per share

P/E Multiplaier (Valuation) 42x (2019) 6.5

Don't understand why drop today on the news regarding the bond rapayment, should this not be good news?, Mike?

Fantastic to see you many days the ST can close on the downside. Please go down to 6 euro.. Is the SP soon on the pre raport levels?

Compare TUI ag with royal, carnival pre under and after pandemic.. all of the other ones, all of them have a SP near or over pre pandemic levels. And then we have Tui SP.. hahaha

Please drop to 6 euro, please!

TUI AG is shifting up a gear and proving that it is capable of returning to its old strength and stability in the long term. In the long term, there are also good prospects of emerging stronger from the crisis as a result of the planned restructuring, portfolio adjustments and cost-cutting measures.

So why is the TUI share price still so low? Due to the numerous capital increases, it is worth taking a look at the development of the TUI Group's market capitalisation, which currently stands at around 4.01 billion euros. In contrast to the share price, this is not 80 percent below the pre-pandemic level compared to 2019, but "only" around 42 percent.

A recovery to the market capitalization of 7.5 billion euros at the time would correspond to a price increase of around 75 percent and not a quadrupling of the share price, as the price development of the last five years suggests.

OK so why are they talking bull in the rapport when we all know that Tui have had almost the same amounth of stocks pre pandemic, also the price was 25-40 Euros per share. Why are they trying to hide it and lie about it in the raport.

I have owned the stock from mars 2020. when Russia invaieded Ukraine the SP was 20 euro on reversed split and dropped down to 3-4 euro..

Why are they lying. ??

Finally a good day for us and a good Q rapport.

JPM increased SP from earlier 12 to 13 euro per share. Have a good night

Or give Israelis a state just one of the 50, give the Palestinians there homeland back. And we would have a world peace I think.

But I think it is of national interest to have someone in the middle east so they can control oil, and other stuff. Dont like politics but as you all se it has a big impact on tuis stock price..

Isr.ael trying to provote a war with Iran, not witout USA of course. Oil prices have taken off.

As far as I could tell from pre-covid figures, Tui has not have a higher debt then they have today!?

This is a industry that requires leverage on a higher level and will continue to remain so as there are tangible assers that require both maintenance and new purchases, such as aircraft and cruises.

Everything seem to have returned to pre-covid figurs in term of ATH, numbers of shares. How ever the stock price is lagging, so if the want too keep shareholders it is important in my opinion that the upcoming divi. is distributed based on the profit. (30-50% of the profit should be distributed to the stockowners, and should no temporary reflect on the share price)

Excuse my grammatical errors, I live and work in Sweden.

Have a nice day.

I,m holding my 13000 shares. Will not sell on therese cheep levels, and waiting on div. Decision.. have a nice day all of you

JP Morgan sets Tui AG SP to 12 Euro overweight!

Have a nice one day peeps

https://www.finanztreff.de/nachrichten/2025-03-19-analyse-flash-jpmorgan-startet-tui-mit-overweight-ziel-12-euro-982566/

Mike is there any other webbsite where we could continue to comment tui Ag? I’m afraid they we close down this one to

Yess but it would not effect the SP. every good news x1, every bad -x2. Cant belive that the SP is under the level of 2020-2021. It seems that result does not matter in Tui.