RE: SP Angel Electrifying Flight1 Aug 2018 13:02
Just looked a bit more at that number of $90m. Interestingly reverse calculated, at a 35% tax and royalty rate that $90m equates to a forecasted pre-tax profit around $140m for BMN. Extrapolated further this pushes their estimate for the overall Vametco pre tax profits to around $198m assuming 70% ownership and $235m at 59.1%. Achieving that would equate to around 3750mt sold at a profit of $53000-$64000 per mt depending on ownership level used. I would suggest we can assume they are factoring in Sojitz' share being taken out in their model based on achievable prices for the year.
What's also interesting is that a forecast profit of $90m doesn't equate to a 25p target unless you use an unusually low PE ratio. Avoiding the debate all I would add is that my money is on a revised target on H1 interims at the absolute latest, if not with the Q2 update. Quick calcs so rounded up and down a little for ease.