Predatory bid risk?15 Apr 2022 16:55
It is Easter and the sun is shining - and Avacta seems to be emerging from a dark period with renewed confidence. I first became a shareholder exactly 2 years ago primarily because of my interest in the potential of the AVA6000 chemotherapy technology. I have now built up a holding of 2mill shares at an average price nicely below the current SP.
I have no intention of selling anytime soon but I believe we face a risk of a predatory bid that might be difficult for the directors and shareholders to defend. This is because of the weak shareholder base. On a fully diluted basis, the directors and 3 institutional shareholders only have 15% of the equity with the balance being held by multiple smaller shareholders. I would suggest that if someone were to offer a premium of say 40% over SP, then as is usual with such matters, many shareholders might be tempted by ‘the bird in hand’ rather than waiting for the results of the first in human trial.
I very much hope this does not happen but the recent GSK/Sierra deal shows the price potential for attractive oncology targets - and Avacta has much greater potential than Sierra which went for £1.5Bn compared with our present MC of £320m.
We face an exciting few months until the results are revealed and let us hope the SP rises steadily in anticipation. A positive result would undoubtedly see the SP well over the historic high and £5ps has a nice ring to it……..