Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
HEAVY Trading in the last half hour TODAT...over 12 m volume out of 46 million for day
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Possible BOUNCE tomorrow ???
Examples below
Date time___________Price________Volume____Value
6:02:00 30-Jan-2020 21.33 GBX 105,985 22,606.60
16:04:34 30-Jan-2020 21.07 GBX 139,445 29,386.64
16:18:10 30-Jan-2020 21.21 GBX 141,461 29,999.63
16:19:15 30-Jan-2020 21.15 GBX 232,074 49,083.65
16:19:41 30-Jan-2020 21.19 GBX 100,000 21,189.00
16:29:12 30-Jan-2020 21.26 GBX 117,770 25,042.61
16:35:03 30-Jan-2020 21.14 GBX 1,098,324 232,185.69
17:07:16 30-Jan-2020 21.14 GBX 250,000 52,850.00
17:24:05 30-Jan-2020 21.14 GBX 201,323 42,559.68
17:28:16 30-Jan-2020 22.61 GBX 2,000,000 452,200.00
17:28:16 30-Jan-2020 22.92 GBX 1,058,260 242,553.19
YESTERDAY was a big Algorithm Trading day
Algorithm Trading is not on usual for this share but yesterday the Direct Market Access trading was at a very high and sustained rate for an AIM share.
There were some 3,850 trades or one every 8 seconds.; One trade every 15 seconds is a very fast trading rate for humans which is not sustainable for very long,; One trade every 2 to 8 minutes, averaged over a day, is a more normal rate of trading.
Average trade lot size, using the lower 57 million recorded by the SE, was 14,855, which is half the Exchange Market Size, EMS, where trades are at prices set by the market makers. This means deals can be done faster. Larger trades can have price negotiated with market maker which takes time and they are often delayed. We only have four delayed trades after the bell.
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For comparison and scale using a full analysis in October 2019 for a normal day
Trades under 30,000 EMS ____ 70% of number but were 30% of Volume
Trades over 30,000 EMS _____ 30% of number but were 70% of Volume
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Price spread was very tight, OHLC 23.92, 26.30, 23.10, 23.64 for a heavy Trading day.
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YESTERDAY the effect was rather like being hit with radar controlled heavy machine gun fire versus rifle fire.
Numbers about this new merger appear to be very thin and difficult to find in detail
My very rough guess to get a handle on the scale for possibilities
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Estimates___________2019 E _______2020 E _________Deal
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Revenue _____________£212m_______£329m_________£29m
Op Profit_____________£21.3m______£38m__________£9m
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Based on cost range 1-2 x Revenue (use 1.5)________£43.5 Million cost
Half in cash_______________________________________£22.0 million
Half in shares_____________________469m____________11 million dilution
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I have notes of cash of between £26.9m and working cash of £5.1m
and NET Debt of £35.6.m
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Back of a Beer Mat numbers DYOR ….Looking forward to Update later this month
GAMBLING on Price action today created today self-imposed market disaster
Based RNS’s based on Warwick West reports created One in a hundred day volumes
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Daily Trading Volume stats from 2 Jan 2015
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Max____________182,929,684 ____17 July 2019
One in 100______38,099,823 ____Recent volumes above this volume
Q3_______________7,813,704
Median___________4,375,973 ____Middle of a sorted sample
Q1_______________1,859,520
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Date________Open___High___Low____Close__Volume
08/11/2019 41.50 45.46 41.50 43.00 44,945,873 … RNS media speculation
02/12/2019 39.70 39.70 34.42 36.34 58,375,688 … RNSTrading Update
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17 July 2019 was RNS's on holdings in the company which gave Maximum Volume
ACTION REPLAY... RNS is similar to the A5 RNS exactly TWO YEARS AGO
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27/11/2017 07:00 UK Regulatory BNG Operational Update A5 Flow Test
Deep Well A5
Caspian Sunrise is pleased to announce that the independent 90-day flow test at Deep Well A5 commenced over the weekend.
We plan to make regular updates announcements as the test progresses.
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Just a brief 730 day delay in the 90 day test. On that day in 2017 share price opened at 11.25 then hit a high and closed at 11.50 trading volume was 8,361,599
Gossip:- Accesso's former CEO, Tom Burnet, has just been promoted from NED to Chairman at Kainos (LON:KNOS) - which makes me wonder if maybe his interest in ACSO might be waning?
Daily volume stats for this year are:-
Max________18,711,722___on 30 Sep followed by 18,621,307 on 1st Oct
Q3__________3,584,760
Median______2,832,025
Q1__________2,124,307
A One in 100 day volume is above 13,118,807
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For an estimate of share changing hands I presume that each is a discrete us either a buy or sell and divide daily volumes by 2.
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Friday we had over 5,200 Trades with Volume 4,652,765 (Thursday 6,581,987 )
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After the bell we had some notable trades amongst the 15 deals recorded
18:18:48 08-Nov-2019 Price 378.00 Shares 161,920 Value £612,057.60 Codes TNCP XOFF
17:45:02 08-Nov-2019 Price 372.56 Shares _73,765 Value £274,816.67 Codes TNCP XOFF
17:33:25 08-Nov-2019 Price 373.77 Shares _31,197 Value £116,605.96 Codes TNCP XOFF
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The closing auction was pretty fancy
16:35:29 08-Nov-2019 Price 378.00 shares 1,714,508 Value £6,480,840.24____Uncrossed Trade
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Make of it what you will
Wood Group was a Blue collar company with muck under its finger nails. It was doing well but suffering White collar envy.
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NOW it is in the process of self transform into a White collar company, which is not ashamed of having had muck under its finger nails, that is continuing to do well
Wood have an office near site of Saudi Arabia missile and drone attack.
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25 Drone and Missile attacks occurred in September. If each cost $1 million to repair (IMHO a low value) that would add $US 25 million to net income. Average net income over last 6 interims are US$ 80 million. Last two are 30 Dec 18 at $165 million and 30 June 19 at $139 million.
Wood probably would not get all the work but the job cost at reported top prices could be much higher. And US$ 25 million net to Wood would be a significant hike in the 31 Dec Interims and the coming Trade update possibly 7th November
Job cost of US$ 50 million for each repair, a high side figure, would barely scratch the surface of the Aramco IPO but failure to report completion of the repairs would severely dent their reputation and damage the IPO.
All back of a beer mat costs ... DYOR
Synopsis . Sales Process: Received indications of interest , none of which offers sufficient value.
Open Offer and Placing
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Synopsis
One share for every 10.754 held @ 140p
Open Offer Entitlements credited_________________________9 October 2019
latest time for withdrawal of offer entitlements___4.30 p.m. on 17 October 2019
latest time for depositing Open Offer ___________3.00 p.m. on 18 October 2019
Payment_________________________________11.00 a.m. on 22 October 2019
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Read prospectus for details
The trades were based on London Stock Exchange official deal listing. But are excluded from some other listings.
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These are probably a form of roller-over. Shares bought on credit which are sold and instantly bought back, (same date time stamp), probably again on credit. Being almost perfect matches the cost is covered elsewhere. Each pair having same price for a particular day is note worthy plus the scale of the dealing.
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TODAY Mystery of NPFT Trades deepens
Mystery Trades sixteen trades all priced at 866p today but grouped as 8 matching pairs (lot size and value) each pair being having same date time stamp.
NPFT 16 Trades were 182,000 shares value at £1,579,584
6 Other trades were 15,578 shares valued at £135,496
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Non Price Forming Trades aka NPFT dominated trading today were valued at £1,579,584
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Interims Highlights
-- Group net revenue growth of 11%
-- Adjusted profit before tax up 14% to GBP17.2m
-- Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased by 7% to 15.2p
-- Net cashflow inflow from operation increased to GBP19.3m (2018: GBP7.7m)
-- Strong balance sheet with net debt of GBP3.6m (2018: GBP25.6m)
-- Significant client wins including M&S, O2 and Purplebricks
-- Acquisition of Health Unlimited, a NY based healthcare agency, for M Booth
-- Confident of meeting market expectations and return to high single digit organic growth in the next financial year
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Interim dividend up 15.7% from 2.16p to 2.5p per share
15.7% increase on the interim dividend for last year.Paid on 22 Nov XD 25 Oct 2019.
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Acquisition
Health Unlimited is a global health consultancy and communications agency.
The initial consideration for the acquisition is approximately $27.7 million,
Four similar trades keep appearing after the bell (At the end of the day). They are tagged Non Price Forming Trades aka NFPT. Each day they have the same lot size, price and value.
But each day is different:-
Last Week lot sizes were Mon 2,700, Tue 1,600,; Wed 2,900 ; Thu 200 ; Fri 300
This week Mon 1,100 … total value £38,708 and by my count buys
They can form a good part of the day’s volume (25% today)
This has been happening at least since 13 September. I haven't the vaguest idea what this is all about. ANY IDEAS ???
OILQ tagged trades at 137.50p on Friday, were part of a sort of secondary disposal program where MM sales team sells "Offers in Large Quantities " to buyers on his phone call list. It breaks down a large holding into smaller lots. Eleven deals tagged OILQ for 22,822 shares or £31,380 accounted for roughly a quarter of deals done on Friday. A single trade of 100,000 shares was tagged on Thursday. IMHO Large holders were adjusting their holdings after the Interims. Discounted price held back the share price but at least those shares were sold and do not overhang the market.
Deadline, set in the Interims 18th September, is almost here. What next ???
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-- The formal sale process which we announced on 24 July 2019 remains ongoing. The Company recently held management presentations with a number of interested parties and is expected to receive feedback by the end of September 2019.
Scheduled for 1st October 2019
https://www.wsj.com/articles/aramcos-repairs-could-take-months-longer-than-company-anticipates-contractors-say-11569180194
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Extract
The Saudi Arabian Oil Co. is in emergency talks with equipment makers and service providers, offering to pay premium rates for parts and repair work as it attempts a speedy recovery from missile attacks on its largest oil-processing facilities, Saudi officials and oil contractors said.
Last two days, in a VIP market (mainly super sized deals), some 1.1 million shares changed hands with the average price over both days of 797 (816 on Wed ; 778 Thurs).
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If each deal was a discrete buy or sell then approximately 2% of companies shares changed hands. Make of it what you will.