RE: EIA submission - PLACING - offtake ????23 Dec 2025 10:18
I think everyone is understandably disappointed with the headline results - Capex and AISC certainly came in higher than I had expected but I think there is still opportunity for further refinement and believe they have gone with a more technically simplistic DFS focussing on lithium extraction rather than by-product / value maximisation. That being said, I would not expect more than a 5-10% reduction in AISC pre-FID (if they get to operation then this is a scalable asset that could bring costs down more meaningfully further down the line).
Let's not forget the strategic relevance of this asset to the EU and the signalled support to date. I would imagine some further support via grants (not in the magnitude of what has been provided to date) and tranches of debt at more favourable terms (i.e. lower interest rate, potential repayment holidays or extended loan etc.). The big question is at what price will they need to raise equity and how much - to date, dilution has been reasonable for a potential mine getting to DFS. I would imagine a working capital only raise early 2026 of maybe £10-20m with the bulk being done once / if a financing package is pulled together.
This isn't the DFS many of us had been waiting for but I don't think it's as disastrous as some are making out - plenty of further catalysts early 2026 that could further support the share price ahead of any raise.